麻豆约拍 NEWS | The Reporters

Treaty puzzle not yet solved

Mark Mardell
20 Jun 08, 05:07 PM

The Irish prime minister is nothing if not expressive in his body language. During the summit I've seen him amid a throng of other leaders and suddenly left alone, turning from left to right, not seeming to know what to do. I've seen him talking to other heads of government, clutching his head and waving his arms. One can't help feeling sorry for him at his first summit as Irish leader. At his final news conference he said it was his responsibility to find a way to move forward and added "Is it possible, can I do it?"

If he doesn't know, I certainly don't. But what has this summit produced? Of course, more time for Cowen. Of course, no definite path. Had they come up with a cunning plan or given Cowen 24 hours to find a solution it would have been truly astonishing.

But given the gut French and German reaction to the vote a week ago today, the conclusions are bland and mild. It notes the result, notes 17 countries have backed the treaty and agree more time is needed to analyse the situation and agree to "Ireland's suggestion to come back to this issue" in October.

Brian Cowen has already identified eight issues which were behind the No vote. Some fears, like those over defence, might be soothed away by a declaration that the EU has no plans to force Ireland into a euro-army. Others, like the size of the commission, could be dealt with by the agreement of other countries. Some, like the Irish voting weight, could not be altered without reopening the whole thing - a horrifying thought all parties have ruled out. But, leaving aside the legitimacy of such a move, could enough be done to change the voters' minds?

Although everyone is being very nice and kind at the moment, they won't be if Mr Cowen returns in October and says "sorry, no can do".

But what of my benchmarks at the beginning of the summit? Deadline ...October is not a deadline, and those arguing for a rush forward have not raised their voices. But many want this over before next June's European elections and I think the autumn summit will have a greater air of urgency.

Franco-German position and enlargement: The French and Germans do appear united and are saying the EU cannot get any bigger without a new treaty. This is a traditional threat to aim at the eastern countries and the UK.

Czechs: In the end a special "footnote" was added for the Czechs, noting that ratification is before the courts in their country.

That's it for the moment: maybe more next week when the dust settles.

UK insists 'no delay'

Mark Mardell
20 Jun 08, 03:48 PM

Glad they are reading this corner: the Foreign Office have just rung to say Number 10 wanted to point out that British ratification will not be delayed, it's just that the court ruling will be out before the process is complete. Evidently even after the Queen signs it off the instruments of ratification have to be deposited in Rome. It's something I might read up on on a quiet day, but not today. Anyway despite my initial excitement a slap from a judge, mildly embarrassing, but no big deal.

New UK twist over Lisbon

Mark Mardell
20 Jun 08, 01:40 PM

A real bombshell thrown into the summit at the last minute, which may or may not be of significance. Gordon Brown has just told the news conference that ratification of the Lisbon Treaty will not happen until after a court ruling. Funny, we all thought it had already happened.

This is in reaction to a letter from Lord Justice Richards, who is hearing a case brought by Stuart Wheeler saying that the Governemnt has acted illegally by not giving a referendum.
The judge writes: "The court is very surprised that the Government apparently proposes to ratify while the claimant's challenge to the decision not to hold a referendum on ratification is before the court. The court expects a judgment to be handed down next week. The defendants are invited to stay their hand voluntarily until judgment. If, in the absence of any satisfactory assurance to that effect, the claimant decides to seek injunctive relief, I direct that the application be placed before me personally."

Ireland questions EU course

Mark Mardell
20 Jun 08, 08:52 AM

More on Brian Cowen's speech. He told other leaders that there was no strong suggestion that the Irish people were less committed to the EU now than in the past, and there was no serious calling into question of the benefits of membership.

He rejects the idea that the treaty was rejected because it was too complex to understand. But he has a long list of "genuinely felt" anxieties, which he labels concerns about the EU's future direction and potential future direction. They are:

- World trade talks.
- Suggestions of tax harmonisation.
- Loss of a commissioner.
- Change in Ireland's voting strength.
- Lack of democratic accountability of the EU high representative and president of the council.
- Possible European Court of Justice rulings on areas like abortion and euthanasia.
- Insufficient workers' rights.
- Defence policy.

That's eight concerns. We won't know for some time how, or indeed if, he intends to address these concerns.

Irish gripes

Mark Mardell
20 Jun 08, 03:21 AM

Bag slung over my shoulder, overcoat on, and heading for the door bad luck struck in the form of a readout of the Irish prime minister's speech. So forgive me if I am terse in my summary. I will give you more detail later.

Brian Cowen He made it clear he saw October as a reporting stage, not a deadline, arguing "it would be counterproductive to any potential way forward.. for us to attempt to predetermine a precise time frame".

He identified a list of reasons for the referendum defeat, none of which will be surprising for those who've followed the campaign. He added that the poor economic outlook might have been a factor, noting it's not going to get any better. While that sounds suspiciously like a warning of the dangers of a second referendum, much of the rest highlights troubled waters where oil might usefully be poured. I am not sure if this points towards a second referendum. I don't think the other EU leaders are sure. I am not sure if Mr Cowen is sure. I'm going to sleep on it, and when I wake up I am not sure it will be any clearer.

Food, fuel and treaty woes

Mark Mardell
20 Jun 08, 01:05 AM

While the Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen had to endure pats of sympathy on his back, and arms and elbows, like someone who's had a rather embarrassing accident, the pressure is on the Czechs.

The Irish PM has to report back in October, but the Slovenian presidency stressed that this wasn't a deadline to "fix" the situation. This may just be kind words, and indeed the actual words that will be released from the summit have not yet been agreed in full.

Mirek Topolanek While the Czech PM, Mirek Topolanek, said that his country wouldn't put the brakes on the ratification process he also told the other leaders there was a great deal of suspicion of the EU in his country. Despite his promise to carry on, he also said "I am not going to force MPs to back Lisbon and I wouldn't bet 100 crowns (about three pounds) on a Czech "yes". He said there was a lot he didn't agree with in Lisbon, but he had linked his political career to it. He said there were eight solutions on the table: only one of them was suspension of ratification. He said the Irish No had the same value as the French and Dutch Nos, but "we are three years old, and three more tired".

After the leaders' dinner the President of the Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, in as crisp a form as I've seen him, hit back. He said that it was "completely inconceivable" that a government would sign and not move towards ratification. He said all governments had an "obligation" to carry on - they had signed up to the treaty, and "not for fun".

He'd already done a good job trying to make this summit about oil and food prices, not the Irish No. I suspect many European newspapers will go with this line.

President Barroso has announced an emergency package to help fishermen, 200 million euros more for an emergency food distribution programme and a fund to help farmers in the developing world. But he insisted that the real way forward was less reliance on oil, and said that investing in renewables, which once seemed "exotic", now makes economic sense. He added there was "no quick fix, no magic solution."

The same might be said about the Lisbon Treaty. We only have a hint so far of the differing views: President Sarkozy said that the process of letting new countries join the EU was "suspended". The Slovenian presidency said it wasn't.

The Irish PM didn't hold a news conference and so far no word has leaked out, at least in my direction, of his description of his plight.

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