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Treaty puzzle not yet solved

Mark Mardell | 17:07 UK time, Friday, 20 June 2008

The Irish prime minister is nothing if not expressive in his body language. During the summit I've seen him amid a throng of other leaders and suddenly left alone, turning from left to right, not seeming to know what to do. I've seen him talking to other heads of government, clutching his head and waving his arms. One can't help feeling sorry for him at his first summit as Irish leader. At his final news conference he said it was his responsibility to find a way to move forward and added "Is it possible, can I do it?"

If he doesn't know, I certainly don't. But what has this summit produced? Of course, more time for Cowen. Of course, no definite path. Had they come up with a cunning plan or given Cowen 24 hours to find a solution it would have been truly astonishing.

But given the gut French and German reaction to the vote a week ago today, the conclusions are bland and mild. It notes the result, notes 17 countries have backed the treaty and agree more time is needed to analyse the situation and agree to "Ireland's suggestion to come back to this issue" in October.

Brian Cowen has already identified eight issues which were behind the No vote. Some fears, like those over defence, might be soothed away by a declaration that the EU has no plans to force Ireland into a euro-army. Others, like the size of the commission, could be dealt with by the agreement of other countries. Some, like the Irish voting weight, could not be altered without reopening the whole thing - a horrifying thought all parties have ruled out. But, leaving aside the legitimacy of such a move, could enough be done to change the voters' minds?

Although everyone is being very nice and kind at the moment, they won't be if Mr Cowen returns in October and says "sorry, no can do".

But what of my benchmarks at the beginning of the summit? Deadline ...October is not a deadline, and those arguing for a rush forward have not raised their voices. But many want this over before next June's European elections and I think the autumn summit will have a greater air of urgency.

Franco-German position and enlargement: The French and Germans do appear united and are saying the EU cannot get any bigger without a new treaty. This is a traditional threat to aim at the eastern countries and the UK.

Czechs: In the end a special "footnote" was added for the Czechs, noting that ratification is before the courts in their country.

That's it for the moment: maybe more next week when the dust settles.

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