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Treaty mired in Irish bog

• Mark Mardell
• 17 Jun 08, 02:55 PM

At the end of the foreign ministers' meeting the big question is: "Will the Irish hold another referendum?" To some it will seem amazing that the Irish government is even being asked this question. But for those who are very keen on this treaty it seems the only way forward.

is that the treaty is good for Europe and means a more efficient and effective Europe. I don't see ministers shedding too many tears if it goes in the bin. The major concern seems to be not being the first, or indeed second, to declare it dead. The Czechs also have grave reservations, and gave President Sarkozy a bit of a slapping.

But as far as I can see everyone else is determined to keep alive. They will ask the Irish what they want. Luxembourg's foreign minister said there could be assurances on abortion and defence. There would be a few tricky legal niceties to get lined up, but it is possible to ditch the smaller commission (so Ireland doesn't lose a commissioner on a rotation basis) without opening the whole business up again.

But would this be enough for the Irish government to take such an immense gamble? They would be accused of having contempt for the people. They would run the huge risk of another "No": has anyone thought through the consequences of that?

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