How life is changing inside Sangin security bubble
SANGIN, AFGHANISTAN - This town, nestling in a valley in northern Helmand, has long had a fearsome reputation.
The 3 Rifles Battlegroup which operates here lost a soldier on Thursday, taking to 21 the number of men who have been killed since it deployed last autumn.
People talk about a "smuggler's culture" here of drug trafficking, and deadly tribal rivalries.
Meanwhile the planting of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) has grown into an industry of such scale that Sangin district is rumoured to account for half of all such bombs encountered by British troops in Helmand Province.
Yet despite the sorry story of struggle and loss, there is much talk these days of progress. The bazaar now has 600 traders, which is three times the number of shops that were open one year ago.
Phil Weatherill, the Stabilisation Advisor from the Foreign Office serving here, estimates that the area of the town that he can safely move around in has expanded 10-fold in the past nine months.
We walked about town on Friday morning, looking at a school and health clinic that have been operating recently.
The existence of this bubble of relative security is dependent on a ring of outposts manned by British and Afghan troops surrounding the town.
It is on the edges of this security belt, particularly to the north and east, that almost daily firefights take place with the insurgents.
The signs of progress being reported fit neatly with the "metrics" of success preferred for the past year by Nato's commander General Stanley McChrystal.
Out have gone Taliban body counts, to be replaced by tallies of shops open, children attending school, and IEDs pinpointed by tips from locals.
By these measures, there is definitely a distinct change going on here. The questions that interest me are why is it happening, and why are coalition casualties still running at similar rate to last summer?
I'm not going to attempt answers yet, because my stay here is not yet finished, and the state of this violent place will be the subject of a Newsnight report in due course.
One thing is clear to me though - and that is how hard it is to find the right levers to influence people in a district like this.
The bazaar may be doing much better, but it is still segregated into virtual no-go areas for different tribes.
A local policeman tells me that these tribal conflicts have been violent for the past 20 years - since the Soviet Army withdrew in fact.
There are other factors complicating Nato's job too - like the existence of a substantial opium industry in this valley.
Add to this a fierce insurgency against both Nato and its Afghan government partner, and you have an inkling why it is so hard to make the kind of rapid progress that, for example, the Iraq surge brought in Baghdad during 2007.
Still, quite a few Afghans agree that life has changed for the better. How far this improvement can be consolidated will be a key question now that the Operation Moshtarak offensive in central Helmand is winding down and troops become available for operations in other places, including Sangin.
I'm Mark Urban, and I'm Newsnight's diplomatic and defence editor. I deal with war and peace around the world, so with apologies to Leo Tolstoy, that's what this blog will be called. No literary pretensions, just an attempt to drill down to the key issues - people around the world struggling for peace and security.
Comment number 1.
At 26th Feb 2010, wendymann wrote:"Still, quite a few Afghans agree that life has changed for the better."
are you still embedded with the army / MoD?
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Comment number 2.
At 26th Feb 2010, jauntycyclist wrote:...One thing is clear to me though - and that is how hard it is to find the right levers to influence people in a district like this...
money. rather than men and guns if the uk wanted to 'nation build' then just send people with suitcases stuffed with cash to pay the leaders off.
didn't the original estimate to conquer afghanistan say it needed 500k troops? where we going to get that without conscription? we know you know your strategy from Time Commanders.
if the uk was on a war footing there would be conscription? we don't so we aren't?
the uk has no nation building science. where are the textbooks? where the professors demonstrating the effectiveness of different models? if there was such a science why isn't the uk domestically itself an exemplar of that science?
the uk has 'no go' areas where the authorities won't go because its too dangerous. The uk has a rising number of organised crime gangs that has doubled sinced 1997 taking some 40 billion out of the public every year. We are told we have an insurgency of at least 2000 hard core AQ ready to organise war in the uk.
uk is already bankrupt. it will have to borrow 150 billion every year for the next 4 years. such ego wars are an unnecessary luxury. especially since our real interests might need defending in the south atlantic.
The usa is neutral on that. so let us be neutral on their pet wars. 9 years and they still haven't found bin ladin. which was the point of going there in the first place. tony has gone. no need to pretend they are a good idea any more. time to bring the forces home.
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Comment number 3.
At 26th Feb 2010, BluesBerry wrote:General Stanley McChrystal鈥檚 campaign Helmand is not going well. This may be why we hear so little about it.
Operation Moshtarak was expected to last a whirlwind few weeks. Instead the Taliban are fighting back.The new estimate being whispered around Washington is Moshtarak might take 12 to 18, if indeed it is reaches the goals.
What if Moshtarak fails?
McChrystal plan was two-pronged:
1. seize the military initiative, drive the Taliban out
2. win the hearts and minds of the population by establishing protection, jobs, government.
Goals achieved, the Americans think that the Taliban will abandon their leaders, accept the Constitution, and become 鈥榠ntegrated鈥 into President Hamid Karzai鈥檚 Afghan State. (Does this seem realistic to you?)
Then the piece de resistance: Karzai鈥檚 鈥榩eace jirga鈥 - Pashtuns, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras, warlords, tribal chiefs, everybody 鈥 will come together around a peace fire and smoke a peace pipe and life will be integrated and happy.
Oops, sorry I was reading the wrong book; I was reading from a fairytale.
1. IF in the first place, the United States had called a loya jirga in IF the United States had invited the Taliban to talk about the future of Afghanistan, something good might have happened. At least it would have been a respectful approach, but "warring" the Taliban into submission will never work, not til the death of the last Taliban standing.
2. A second mistake was talking about winning minds and hearts while exposing Afghan civilians to airstrikes, killing dozens and displacing thousands. Unable to flee, several families are holed up in their ramshackle huts with little food and no medicine, trying to keep their families alive. It is hardly surprising that McChrystal鈥檚 campaign has so far made more enemies than friends 鈥 even if those 鈥渆nemies鈥 are silent and compliant鈥or now.
3. America has undersetimated the profound hatred that Pashtun tribes have for strangers; they detest 鈥榠nfidels鈥. They are ready to die in defence of their religion and traditions. Britain learned this lesson in the 19th century; the Soviet Union in the 20th.
4. U.S. casualties in Afghanistan in the past eight years have passed the 1,000 mark.
But a country that is spent an incredible $700B on its armed services - including $160bB earmarked for Iraq and Afghanistan 鈥 will not, cannot admit defeat. General McChrystal speaks for Americans, especially Obama when he says: 鈥淲e will succeed!鈥
The idea (Obama and Brown) of defeating the Taliban in Afghanistan will protect West from terrorism is just plain stupid. The more Muslims killed by Western forces, the more home-grown militants there will be and the more risk that the west will be attacked. The way to defeat Islamic terrorism is to
a) stop killing Muslims and
b) stop pretending the Taliban can be controlled and
b) impose a just & objective settlement on the Israel/Palestine conflict..
Meanwhile, the coalition of the willing is growing less willing. The Dutch government collapsed last weekend, the first European government to fall due to participation in the Afghan war. The Canadians and the Italians could follow the Dutch. British forces would have been gone long ago if it weren't for the 鈥榮pecial relationship鈥 between Britain and the United States.
Eight years after 9/11, the war in Afghanistan is nonsensical. Every Afghan civilian, every child mutilated or born genetically defective, every village destroyed enlarges the fires of extremism.
This Afghan war will fail.
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Comment number 4.
At 9th Mar 2010, Ron Taylor wrote:Mark,
Good film about the effort in Sanguin.
Good to see someone trying to get across the real difficulties instead
of the usual three minute piece about "us" and "them".
Would have been nice to give the cameraman a verbal credit in the studio.
After all, he too risked his life.
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