Why Gordon thinks he is on a promise
The word is, from usually impeccable sources, that President Barack Obama has decided to increase US forces in Afghanistan substantially.
There was a further White House meeting on the subject on Wednesday, but nothing has yet been announced officially in Washington.
Meanwhile Britain has said it will send 500 more troops, and in the run up to this announcement, Whitehall has received reassurances from the US president that the UK will not be left out on a limb.
According to some of those in the know, the US reinforcement could be as large as 45,000. This would amount to a dramatic endorsement of the counter-insurgency strategy proposed by General Stanley McChrystal and a reversal for Vice-President Joe Biden who questioned the value of sending more men and women.
Although Gen McChrystal has been widely reported as asking for 30-40,000 more troops, insiders say he actually looked at a variety of options that ranged from no boost (which would have involved giving up certain areas in order to concentrate existing numbers) to a thumping 60,000 more.
Announcing Britain's increase today the country's senior serving officer, Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup hinted that although he did not want to pre-empt the US Joint Chiefs, "I'm pretty confident how it's going to come out".
President Obama is set to announce the result of his Afghan policy review soon. Some suggest that confirmation of a big reinforcement may be timed to coincide with a NATO defence ministerial meeting in Bratislava next week in the hope of influencing some other members to boost their contributions.
Gordon Brown, speaking in the House of Commons this afternoon, said that Britain's extra 500 would be committed under certain conditions: that Afghan forces in Helmand will increase substantially; that British troops can be properly equipped; and that other NATO allies also send more troops.
He revealed that although the Kabul government had honoured a promise to send more Afghan troops to Helmand after this summer's Panther's Claw offensive, they had actually dispatched disappointingly under strength units. The most serious doubts in Washington and London now centre on the Afghans' ability to deliver. They are waiting for a clear result to emerge from August's presidential poll and for President Karzai, assuming he is confirmed in power, to put in place an effective anti-corruption programme.
I'm Mark Urban, and I'm Newsnight's diplomatic and defence editor. I deal with war and peace around the world, so with apologies to Leo Tolstoy, that's what this blog will be called. No literary pretensions, just an attempt to drill down to the key issues - people around the world struggling for peace and security.
Comment number 1.
At 14th Oct 2009, bookhimdano wrote:..The most serious doubts in Washington and London now centre on the Afghans' ability to deliver...
but no doubts about their own ludicrous narrative based on a set of false beliefs?
yes much simpler to blame the afghans.
the current set of false beliefs means there is no end game. no realistic objective.
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Comment number 2.
At 15th Oct 2009, MrRoderickLouis wrote:This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.
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Comment number 3.
At 15th Oct 2009, MrRoderickLouis wrote:This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.
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Comment number 4.
At 15th Oct 2009, barriesingleton wrote:THE BLAIRNESS OF JAMES GORDON BROWN
The delusional capacity of these two poor souls is very similar. So weak is the inner man, that the persona, is one of omnipotence - all well attested in the psychological annals.
Yes he IS on a promise, like some wandering quester in a Greek myth, he has promised himself greatness.
Once again we are confronted with the intrinsic malfunction of Westminster governance that elevates such travesties.
While Westminster endures, the ability of this land to nurture contentment and competence will decline. Time to dismantle the folly:
SPOIL PARTY GAMES.
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Comment number 5.
At 15th Oct 2009, bookhimdano wrote:every country has an AQ 'network'. so will will invade very country until they can prove there is none?
what about the uk? a major bastion of AQ support? we spend billions every year on internal security. apparently this is one of the benefits of the unlimited immigration of the past and is not 'a cost'?
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Comment number 6.
At 15th Oct 2009, bookhimdano wrote:why do they want to kill us?
are the just unthinking irrational monsters or are they highly intelligent with reasoned motives?
what are we doing that provokes them to want to fight?
what errors in foreign policy are we doing?
apparently this discussion is taboo? its is never raised.
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Comment number 7.
At 15th Oct 2009, leftieoddbod wrote:people say Brown is different to Blair and they do not like each other...piffle, they are the same. Bush says 'Yo Blair' do this for me' and Blair obliges, Obama says 'Gordon...jump' and Brown says 'How high?' in other words the Yanks want more troops to help fight an unwinnable war and we go along with it, and Cameron would do the same. They can rely on the Brits because the French, Italian and the Germans are far too sensible to waste manpower on such an ill fated enterprise. Oh, for a Harold Wilson who did say No...No...No
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Comment number 8.
At 17th Oct 2009, Menedemus wrote:They are waiting for a clear result to emerge from August's presidential poll and for President Karzai, assuming he is confirmed in power, to put in place an effective anti-corruption programme.
And the politicians and our dogged Prime Minister in prticular are pinning their hopes on this last paragraph.
No wonder Gordon is clinging on to power, he just sees the world through rose-tinted spectacles hoping the Recession will be over by January 2010 so the British voters can see that he is the "right man" for the job of leading this nation come the General Election, the troops will get the "right" equipment throught MOD by the time they are deployed (some hope!)and that 500 British troops will make a jot of difference.
Its almost like one banana republic trying to save another banana republic and hoping that bananas will save the world!
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