Â鶹ԼÅÄ

UPDATE, 08:10HRS, TUESDAY 23 FEB. 2010:
Little significant change of emphasis today, with the prospect of seeing snow falling even to low levels at times today across many of our districts but especially into upland areas above 150m AMSL.

Exmoor and environs will start to see some snow by mid to late morning - possibly 2-5cm here and across some other high ground of Somerset - .

By around midday, the main band of precipitation will be draped through Bristol, B&NES and much of Wiltshire, again offering snow for some, perhaps even downÌýto street level in the likes of Bristol & Bath but (like on Exmoor) turning readily back to rain as the afternoon progresses.

The Forest of Dean and parts of the Cotswolds will see snow through the afternoon, probably heaviest over the Forest itself - again, 2 to 5cm likely here and quite probably some level of disruption on the smaller roads. It'll all ease away northwards this evening, changing to rain from the south.

UPDATE, 21:20HRS MONDAY 22 FEB. 2010:
The latest NAE run offers a broadly similar story BUT with anÌýincreased snow potential later tomorrow morning and early afternoon into a broader area of Somerset (especially upland areas, I do stress) and northwards through Bristol, B&NES, N. Wilts and into Gloucestershire.

However the emphasis for significant snow still remains primarily across Exmoor and into the Forest of Dean. Elsewhere, other than transient snow, it's still principally a rain story.

So, a lot ofÌýwet weatherÌýabout from after the morning rush-hour onwardsÌýbut it's quite possible we will see some snow at lower levels in a few districts, albeit higher ground will be distinctly favoured.

So, we expect around 0-2cm in Somerset (and parts of North-Mid Devon) above 100m and possibly 2-5cm in any of these areas above 300m.

Timings suggest mostly dry weather, some drizzle aside, during the morning rush-hour for much of our region; then snow over Dartmoor and Exmoor by around 9am; into the S. Glos area by around midday and then spreading northwards. By around 6pm, it should all be falling as rain as the Wet Bulb Freezing LevelÌýrises widely above 1000m.

---------------------------------------------

(ORIGINAL ENTRY FOLLOWS)

After today's snowfall, albeit a fleeting experienceÌýfor many, it looks like a good deal of wet - rather than white - Ìýweather lies ahead through this working week.

Windy at times, too. And on the thermometers at least, turning fairly mild.

Some heavy and at times prolonged rain will affect many districts as a series of low pressure systems sweep into the SW off the Atlantic. So what about the threat of snow?

Mostly minimal.Ìý However...

Tomorrow (Tuesday) is likely to offer some snow over Exmoor and the adjacent upland areas of Somerset, with snow also probably fallingÌýinto the Forest of Dean.ÌýÌý It'll likely arrive later in the morning and into the afternoon, whereas we're expecting most - if not all - of the remainder of the West Country to see rain. The greatest risk of snow will be for any areas of high ground above 150-200 metres, facing eastwards.

The map below gives the Met Office's latest idea of how the rain-snow geography will look by the end of Tuesday.ÌýThe yellow line shows the expected confines of areas seeing more than 1cm of snow; the orange line, for areasÌýseeing more than 3cm. Don't take it literally - but probably a useful guide!

You'll see some critical differences compared to the snowfall forecast forÌýand experiencedÌýduring today (Monday), especially the more westerly bias expected on Tuesday. Moreover, the threat of significant snow to lower levels lies a good deal further north - hence the high likelihood of rain for most of us at lower levels.

By late tomorrow afternoon, significantly milder air than we've seenÌýof lateÌýwill have flooded across southern England in theÌýlower levels of the atmopshere - helpfully curtailing the risk of snow, yes,Ìýbut certainly not really making things feel much 'warmer'!!ÌýÌý In fact, wherever you are in the West tomorrow, it will remain an essentiallyÌýcloudy, wet story until after nightfall.

Although Exmoor isn't included on this map - and hasn't really been mentioned in many TV forecasts eitherÌý- it's my 'tip of the day' and I expect some of the moor will see some snow, perhaps more than a few centimetres.Ìý So to recap, Exmoor and the Forest of Dean are my expectations for any 'proper' snowfall during Tuesday.

The rest of the week carries no significant chance of snow; indeed quite the opposite, as we see repeated spells of rain. The spectre of localised flooding could become an issue by the end of the working week, but I'll keep you updated on the expected developments.

Oh, and incidentally - I photographed (right)Ìýa Red Admiral butterfly (Vanessa atalanta)Ìýon Saturday, basking in comparatively warm sunshine here in Bradley Stoke. A wonderful sight and the first I've seen in 2010. Not many of these distinctive insects surviveÌýeven an average British winter - their population each year is boosted by migrants from continental Europe. Thankfully,Ìýthis particular specimenÌýwasÌýtoo high on a wall for my cat, Pickle, to catch and eat it...Ìýbut was it aÌýsign of impending spring?

Well, the longer-range forecasts progressively squeeze the snow threat up into the Midlands and then eventually just toÌýScotland.... but atÌýthe same time, some distinctly unsettled (if not distinctly cold)Ìýconditions look likely to dominate across the south.Ìý So keep those t-shirts tucked-away in the drawer for now... but haveÌýthe umbrella close at hand!