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Irish No sparks EU crisis

• Mark Mardell
• 13 Jun 08, 03:55 PM

What does Ireland's No mean for the European Union? Here is a longer version of my thoughts for Radio 4's 1800 bulletin.

This is a multiple crisis. itself is a watered-down version of the European constitution, which was abandoned after it was rejected in referendums in France and the Netherlands three years ago. Lisbon was only stitched together after tortuous negotiations, carefully balancing the competing wishes and concerns of 27 countries. To go back to the drawing board is unthinkable to those who would have to do the work, as well as fairly pointless.

So it's a crisis about what happens to the ambitions and the rule changes in the documents.

Some politicians, particularly in France, will want Ireland to vote again - perhaps after a concession allowing all countries to keep a commissioner.

But it is also a crisis about legitimacy. The Irish voted No to the in 2001 and were asked to vote again a year later. That time they said Yes. The Danish voted No to the in 1992 - and voted Yes a year later. The French and Dutch rejected the constitution in 2005 and the leaders designed Lisbon instead.

If Ireland is asked to vote again, voices saying that the EU doesn't understand the word "no" can only grow louder. In the end Lisbon could be declared dead. Some bits would be implemented without a treaty, others abandoned and others put into a new treaty when Croatia joins the EU in a couple of years' time. So it's also a moral crisis: we face another few years of potentially boring navel-gazing, when some European leaders say the only way to sell the EU is to deal with things like climate change, immigration and terrorism.

Friday 13th may turn out to be very unlucky indeed for those who believe in the EU project... not that it will stop them trying to press ahead regardless.

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Ireland votes No - what next?

• Mark Mardell
• 13 Jun 08, 12:53 PM

Ireland has voted No to . For European Union politicians who back the treaty it is indeed an unlucky Friday 13th. But what will they do?

The plan is that all other countries will press ahead with backing the treaty. I am told Gordon Brown has phoned the French president to assure him that is what he will do. But this surely is just a holding pattern. Without Ireland on board Lisbon is dead.

The ball is in the court of the Irish prime minister. Many politicians in Europe will hope that he will, at some later date, call another referendum. It's likely that even some No campaigners in Ireland will urge him to go back and demand some concessions. If he went down that route Brian Cowen would be taking a grave political gamble, risking another No. If the EU demands another vote it will hardly enhance its reputation for democratic accountability.

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Irish vote: No camp upbeat

• Mark Mardell
• 13 Jun 08, 10:52 AM

The bookies may regret trying to be ahead of the game. Bookmaker Paddy Power decided on an early payout to those who gambled on a Yes vote. Now they're feeling decidedly nervous. The No camp tell me they're very happy with the early results, which point towards a victory for them. They say key constituencies are voting No at over 60% , while the Yes campaign's strongest areas are getting barely over 50%. Still, I think it's a bit too early to call.

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Lisbon: A hard sell

• Mark Mardell
• 13 Jun 08, 08:16 AM

Turnout, they told me, was crucial. Above 50% and it is a Yes. Under 40% and it's a No. Frankly I am suspicious about this analysis, but both camps tell me about 45% of Ireland's voters went to the polls. Right in the middle of knife-edge territory.

But in Ireland, the don't knows have it. I don't mean those who didn't bother to vote.

On talking to people at polling stations the overwhelming impression that comes through is that voters feel they don't understand . On the whole they agree with Ireland's Eurovision star , who is quoted in the Irish Sun as calling the treaty "gobbledegook" (Geddit?).

At one place a teacher told me she wasn't sure how she was going to vote when she walked into the polling station.
She only decided to vote Yes as her pen hovered above the ballot paper.

At a more working-class area of Dublin the polling station staff are bored in the early evening, doing a quiz in the newspaper and chatting on their phones. Hardly anyone has been in. Turnout has been around 30% here, which is higher than the national average at this time, which is 20%. Just then a bit of a rush starts. I ask a couple of young women what they make of the treaty. "I don't know what it's all about." And her friend? "Not a clue." So how did she vote? "No. I'm not going to vote for something I don't understand."

An elderly couple tell me they don't know what it is all about, either. "But we voted Yes. Did we do the right thing?"

A couple in their thirties with three kids in tow says the Yes campaign has done a bad job of explaining the treaty. "No-one understands it." So they will be voting No.

If it turns out Ireland said No it could be because of the advice from Dustin the Turkey. But I think it will be because of the huge difficulty of finding a simple way to sell a complex legal document.

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