Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ

Treaty of Lisbon

• Mark Mardell
• 2 Jul 07, 10:17 AM

Lisbon in late October. A summit by the sea, rather than by the dual carriageway. Balancing a plate on my knee in the Portuguese Prime Minister's garden it seems a very attractive notion. The PM's backyard is a good place to be. The sky is blue, the sun is shining, the green lawns are shaded by palms, and overshadowed by trees with lilac blooms. In the distance, a profusion of vivid magenta flowers promiscuously cover a series of columns and arches. Over the plate of cured ham and melon, I reflect that if we are to cover the signing of the new reform treaty, then how much better if it will be here, than in the dull building in Brussels that squats next to the busy road that runs through the European Quarter of the city.

The Portuguese have the job of running the EU countries' business until Christmas, and they hope the highlight of will be the signing of the "Treaty of Lisbon". They certainly expect agreement to be reached in their capital and a final deal done here. But there is an argument. The meeting in October is an "informal summit" and a formal one is needed to sign off a treaty. And all formal meetings take place in Brussels these days. But perhaps there is a more pressing reason to hold the summit here than Portuguese pride and my self-indulgence. However the arguments develop about the document that replaces the constitution, I just can't see Gordon Brown signing up to the "Treaty of Brussels".

Portuguese George Clooney

I'm in Portugal to hear what plans Portugal has for the EU over the next six months. It's a smooth, well-organised trip. I am writing this on a coach to Porto that has wireless connection to the internet. Quite amazing. But this handing on of the baton from Germany, before it passes to Slovenia in January, does highlight one of the arguments about the new treaty. It proposes establishing an individual President of the Council - the Council being the name given meetings of the governments of EU states - instead of the current system, where countries take turns at being president every six months. There are arguments that this could develop into "a president of Europe" but the British government portrays it sheer common sense.

One tiny example of why some support this. It takes me about three hours to get my accreditation online. And I spend time doing this every six months. It's not the fault of the Portuguese, and probably has a lot to do with the Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ's own computer security. No-one's heart will bleed for me and other journalists having annoying few hours. But it does raise the question why we have to go through this bother every six months. Presumably all the thousands of diplomats, civil servants and politicians who come to the EU meetings have to do something similar. And that's just about badges. Each country that takes over may see it as an opportunity, but it also ties up civil servants in everything from designing websites and , to working in policy areas that may be completely new to them.

The Portuguese Prime Minister bounces into the room, shaking hands firmly. The firm verdict of my female colleagues is that Jose Socrates is a bit dishy, the George Clooney of Portuguese politics. The 49-year-old does have a certain style. Neat grey hair, fashionable sideburns, he's dressed in jeans and an open-necked blue shirt and suit jacket. It's very much the weekend uniform of the energetic leader, a la Sarkozy, a la early Blair. His demeanour is full of vitality and suggests he can't wait to get on with the business of setting the EU's agenda, even if sometimes his answers are so diplomatic as to be devoid of meaning. At least our meeting is on the record. Eventually. At first it was off the record, until the assembled EU correspondents objected. Then some remarks were on, and some off. And then he gave in.

Polish 'misunderstanding'

Which is a very good thing, because such formulations as "friends of the prime minister say..." and "the PM is believed to think" couldn't capture the heavy irony as he brands the latest Polish position as a "misunderstanding".

Through sheer intransigence at the summit, the Poles delayed a change to the voting system that everyone else wanted. Now they are saying there was an oral agreement that would give them still more concessions. Mr Socrates repeatedly says this must be a "misunderstanding because the deal was very clear." In case we don't get it, he repeats: "It can only be a misunderstanding. There were not 26 leaders but 27 around the table. There was a clear cut, precise mandate. That's why I call it a misunderstanding, there can be no other explanation." I think this translates as, "Don't try it on with me, sonny."

I've discussed before how much is open to dispute. But the Portuguese plan to unveil a full text on 23 July and then it will be up to legal experts and civil servants to argue about detailed wording. The foreign minister says, the work will be mainly legal and technical but if there any questions of interpretation, a new debate will have to be organised. That would probably happen at a meeting of foreign ministers in the second week of September.

World actor

Portugal's main job will be to get this treaty signed sealed and delivered. The Portuguese think there is an urgent need for it, so the European Union can play a much larger role on the world stage. They argue with some passion that with many crises around the world, the EU needs a beefed-up High Representative (the job that is no longer called "foreign minister") to play a "balancing" role on the world stage. Nearly all the issues they single out as top priority are about Europe as a world actor.

RUSSIA
Mr Socrates gets worked up about the summit with Russia in October and the need for better relations. Indeed, the urbane prime minister almost loses it with a journalist from Eastern Europe. The PM says that the disagreement with Russia "started with rotten meat and now we are talking about weapons. Weapons!" He doesn't suggest any way forward on the star wars row, but does talk at some length about his love for Tolstoy and Dostoyevsky and how Russian literature means that Russia has contributed to European culture. A journalist from Lithuanian radio says rather acidly that he could talk about Russian literature in some depth because he had read it in the original language, which he didn't necessarily want to learn, but was made to. People from countries like his knew the only way to deal with the Russians getting pushy was to push back.

Mr Socrates becomes extremely animated and rather steely. "I don't agree. I don't accept that. International relations don't work like that. Push the Russians! It's irresponsible! I'm not a guy who will contribute to increasing tensions, I want to lower the tensions." Afterwards we ask a friend (a real live one, not journalistic code for the man himself) why he felt so strongly. It seems Putin granted him a three-hour audience, a rare privilege for the leader of a small country and he was allowed to stay in the Kremlin ,an honour usually reserved for heads of states. But Mr S is clearly no fool and it's hard to imagine he's simply fallen for this sort of soft soap. Many western EU countries simply don't get how they feel in the East and that is a big problem for the future.

TURKEY
Maybe Mr Sarkozy should offer the Portuguese PM the best bedroom in the Elysee, because at the moment it seems he's not going to get the conference he wants on Turkey. The French president would like a summit to discuss Europe's borders, with the real aim of stopping negotiations with Turkey. The Portuguese, like the British, feel this would be a strategic blunder of massive proportions, destabilising Turkey at a difficult time and sending all the wrong signals to the Islamic world. The Portuguese don't quite rule it out, but the foreign minister said "it is very difficult to open another divisive debate when we haven't closed the last one (on the treaty)".

AFRICA
The Africa summit in December matters a lot to Portugal, and ministers say having proper relations with the continent is a priority for the European Union. The row will be whether or not they invite Robert Mugabe. Both Mr Socrates and the foreign minister reply with deliberately obscure gobbledygook about bilateral relations being different from relations with an organisation as a whole. This probably translates as, "We're crossing our fingers that the African Union will sort it out their end."

AND AN OLD CHESTNUT
While many at home argue the treaty is another big step down the road of European integration, many countries feel they've only made a small, hobbled step after Mr Blair added a ball and chain to the treaty. The number of British opt-outs again raises that old chestnut of a two-speed Europe, with some countries threatening (promising?) to press on without the laggards. The metaphor of speeds does imply we'll all get there in the end. The truth is that there already is an inner and outer core, with Britain as the most determined member of the outer ring. There is no realistic prospect of Britain joining the euro, or allowing EU citizens in without passports, and these are the most significant integrationist projects.

One French journalist from the left-wing daily suggests that Sweden Denmark and Britain are such a "stumbling block" they should be offered a privileged partnership - the same deal, far short of full membership, that Mr Sarkozy wants to offer Turkey. Mr Socrates replies that the mood in Sweden and Denmark is not a real problem and the countries are not stumbling blocks. What about the UK, I ask? He diplomatically replies that Britain has its own history, but the British are "more European than they themselves think they are". Well, are we?

UPDATE:
I'm somewhat in the dark, metaphorically and literally. The Portuguese are very keen on having a big summit with Africa, but is inviting Robert Mugabe a price worth paying? That's the question I've just asked the Portuguese PM at a news conference in the lovely city of Porto. He said that it was "an error" that for seven years "a diplomatic problem" had prevented vital dialogue. The logic of that is that they would invite him. But he says he hopes "a diplomatic formula" can be found.

So I don't know.

Certainly diplomats here hope that he just won't turn up, but that may be placing to much faith in Mr Mugabe's desire for compromise and easy relations for the greater good.

The other reason I'm in the dark is that my glasses have broken and I'm having to wear sunglasses to see anything beyond a blur. I can't even see my computer screen without them. The risk is that people will think this a pathetic attempt at cool at a moment of mid-life crisis. The alternative is that I stumble round bumping into things. Then people would think I had partaken too liberally of this lovely city's most famous product, which has wrecked the legs of many an English aristocrat. That would be more in character and so a less desirable interpretation.

UPDATE, 6 JUL: I've replied to some of your comments here.

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