麻豆约拍

Respect for parliament

• Mark Mardell
• 21 Jun 07, 08:49 PM

Tony Blair's demands are "not a menu of options" according to Downing Street. But the EU is keeping something from us. Keeping it a secret. They won't tell us what the leaders are eating at their big dinner until the first morsel is consumed. And surely they know that when no real news is leaking out, reporters have to know what leaders are eating.

nearly didn鈥檛 get any supper. They were almost arrested outside the summit, and had their inflatable bulldozer confiscated. They are not happy.

In my interview with him European Commission President sounded shocked that some British people, who killed a king to protect the rights of Parliament, should feel that ratifying a treaty through Parliament was "by the back door". What sort of respect, he asked, does that show to the mother of parliaments? Is he right?

The Danish, who have a list of demands, have been told they will all be met. If they work on the Poles. The Poles object to a voting system which rewards countries with big populations so much. The Polish prime minister has shocked everybody here by telling a radio station that Poland should have more votes because it would have a bigger population if Hitler hadn't killed so many people. One of the unwritten rules of the EU is, "Don't mention the war!"

UPDATE : Breaking news. We've got the menu. The dinner has broken up remarkably early which suggests to me the serious business will be done tomorrow. The starter, rollmop with Frankfurt sauce, sounds suitably international. Then artichoke-filled beef. But I bet it was the sour cherry soup that captured the mood.

UPDATE 2: No real negotiations at the dinner: they just went round the table and restated their positions. Blair made a particular point of the being a problem. The real talks will be "bilateral", one-to-one negotiations. Downing Street says: "These negotiations will be real, not rituals."

But I think my colleague Alex Ritson has a story that could be more important than all the others. He's still checking it, so I'm not quite sure how it'll work out, but he should be on the Today programme tomorrow morning. A clue: will this summit see the end to a free-market Europe, and what does that mean for competition policy?

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Existential crisis?

• Mark Mardell
• 21 Jun 07, 06:25 PM

Radio 4 has asked me why European leaders would regard it as a catastrophe if there was no agreement at this summit. My answer - it would deepen an existential crisis that some of them are going through.

Continue reading "Existential crisis?"

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Blair's last stand

• Mark Mardell
• 21 Jun 07, 12:01 AM

Tony Blair is feeling distinctly unsentimental about his last appearance on the world stage as prime minister, at this crucial summit. He will be centre-stage not only because it鈥檚 the end of 10 years of family photos and late-night deals, but because Britain is one of the two countries making it difficult to replace the constitution.

A lot is at stake. While European leaders waver between predicting a crisis if there鈥檚 failure and the admission that life would go on, it is very clear that it will be seen by many as a monumental failure if there is no agreement. It would almost amount to a humiliation for Germany鈥檚 chancellor, Angela Merkel. And for the new boy, President Sarkozy of France, failure would be almost as bad. Allies of Tony Blair say that鈥檚 why it鈥檚 right that he, not Gordon Brown, negotiates. He can make the most of his personal relationship with those two leaders and take the hits on Gordon鈥檚 behalf. And, yes, they have been speaking nearly every day about this summit.

Mr Blair thinks reaching an agreement is touch-and-go. But there is one advantage to negotiating in Brussels, in his view. The horridness of the Justus Lipsius building, standing on the main dual carriage way through the centre of the city, focuses minds and makes leaders want to leave as soon as possible. But he is in no doubt that this will be tough, and his message to other leaders will be uncompromising.

Britain has already won a great deal of what it wants. The word 鈥渃onstitution鈥� abandoned. A 鈥渞eform treaty鈥� in its place. The title 鈥渇oreign minister鈥� dropped. But he will tell the other presidents and prime ministers that he must get not 90% of his demands but 100%. This makes me think that an agreement must be just about in the bag. But some of his demands seem almost calculated to offend. For instance, he wants it made clear that Javier Solana, or whoever becomes whatever it is they decide to call now the new foreign affairs chief, is just a servant of the prime ministers and presidents of the European Union and can鈥檛 go off and make policy on their own.

Sour feelings

There鈥檚 no doubt some countries feel sour towards Britain. Earlier this week, in Luxembourg, I was at a news conference held by the Czech deputy prime minister. When one journalist referred to 鈥渢he constitution鈥� he wagged his finger and said with a smile, 鈥淭he treaty you mean鈥�. Some of the journalists erupted. Spanish and Germans objected, with genuine passion: 鈥淏ut you signed it! If it was good two years ago, what鈥檚 wrong with it now?鈥� If that鈥檚 what mere hacks feel, imagine what the politicians say. I tried to draw a senior British diplomat down this route, suggesting the British red lines were all about domestic politics not about the national interest, as perceived by the government. Urbanely, he replied there was no difference. Not for diplomats anyway.

Mr Blair intends to be a great deal more forthright. He is unapologetic that his problem is with the home front. It鈥檚 one of the reasons he wanted to negotiate at this summit, rather than hand over to Gordon. He will tell his counterparts from other countries that, yes he signed it two years ago but there鈥檚 no point agreeing to something if the government is going to be forced into a referendum. It would mean another two years of uncertainty, and if the referendum was lost Europe would be back at square one in 24 months鈥� time, with some saying they had to start all over again. His message will be: 鈥淟ook guys, do you want a deal or not?鈥� There is no point in him agreeing to anything that comes in beneath the bar he has set up.

Some will argue, as do the Conservatives, that he has set the bar artificially low, knowing that after a great deal of huffing and puffing he can jump it with ease. This is certainly true about some elements of the 鈥渞ed lines鈥�. No-one has suggested, recently, that the veto on tax should go. But it鈥檚 a red line. There are other subjects like making sure Britain isn鈥檛 out-voted in policing and justice which are not in the bag, but where there is an outline agreement that is unlikely to come unstuck. But other areas, like protecting British labour law from interpretation by European courts, is trickier. Mr Blair may demand an assurance the Charter of Fundamental Rights will only apply to European institutions, not countries鈥� national law. Yet there is currently an insistence in the draft treaty that it will be legally binding.

Making the case

There is no question that even if Mr Blair wins every single one of his demands and there is icing on the cake, like the Dutch demand for a bigger say for national parliaments, the Conservatives will still demand a referendum. There are plenty of things that Mr Blair likes that they do not. A president of the council. A smaller commission. They want a referendum if more powers go to Brussels. He would argue that giving more power to Brussels can give more power to Britain, or at least Britain鈥檚 arguments, whether you are talking about energy policy or an extension of the free market.

Of course, the blunt fact is that the government thinks it would lose a referendum, and it is probably right. Many enthusiasts for the European project think that is Mr Blair鈥檚 fault for not making the case strongly enough. He sees himself as a passionate pro-European who does make the case, but blames the media for not reporting it. He thinks if the press changed its tune, public opinion would become pro-European very quickly.

He has no time for Eurosceptics, feeling they are ridiculously old-fashioned. He admits there is now a new breed, not xenophobic, with sophisticated arguments. But he thinks it鈥檚 absurd to argue that a smallish country like Britain would have more clout negotiating with China or India on its own. He sees the relationship with Europe and the relationship with the United States as combining to give Britain a far bigger role in the world than without these alliances. And he strongly believes that it just happens you can鈥檛 be semi-detached from Europe. Perhaps you can鈥檛 from the States either.

He thinks that the role of a full-time president for the council is important, to give coherence to just this sort of negotiation in future. But on the brink of giving up a major political role, he isn鈥檛 in the mood for another one. And it鈥檚 not on offer for a couple of years even if there is agreement in the next few days. President Bush鈥檚 suggestion he should play a role for the quartet in the Middle East is a different matter. He doesn鈥檛 rule that out. So he might be back on the world stage sooner than we would have expected.

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