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I've just recorded an interview with Sammy Wilson for our last Inside Politics of 2009. He told me that, despite all the talk of Stormont collapsing, the Executive didn't have the feel of an institution in crisis when it met last Thursday.

He stuck to the DUP party line on devolving justice, arguing that Gordon Brown and Brian Cowen's warning that the financial deal on policing and justice was a statement of the obvious, given that a Westminster election is in the offing.

On wider budgetary matters, however, he did reveal that Executive ministers have forged "an agreement in principle" on wide ranging cuts to the budget for the next financial year. Back in September he warned that

Sammy also talks about the lack of agreement at Copenhagen. As a famous sceptic on man made climate change you can imagine he takes a fairly jaundiced view of the proceedings. Our commentators this weekend are Seamus Close and Sian O'Neill, and if you don't catch the programme on Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ Radio Ulster after the one o'clock news you should be able to get it again on the web.

With some of the key players away it doesn't seem likely there will be any major political developments regarding Stormont's future stability between now and Christmas (although there's still a lot of speculation around that the UDA may make a move on decommissioning over the Christmas and New Year period). Sinn Fein are due to review options at their next Ard Comhairle on January 9th - however it seems unlikely that the meeting, which has a lot of regular business scheduled related to the party's Ard Fheis, will provide any definitive announcements.

Barring dramatic developments, I don't anticipate making any blog entries over the next fortnight. So just in case we don't meet again in cyberspace between now and then I'd like to take the opportunity to wish you all a very Merry Christmas and a Brilliant New Year.

The body language experts have had a field day with yesterday's McGuinness Robinson interchange at the north south meeting at Limavady. personally i don't buy the theory that this was a carefully prepared ambush by the Deputy First Minister. If that had been the case he surely would have fired his Exocet at the First Minister earlier in the proceedings. As it was the joint presser began with the standard statements, and I managed to get a first question in about the impending crisis at Stormont, which once again elicited predictable responses.

In fact as the ministers spoke our Newsline 1.30 programme was going on air so I had to leave the proceedings to regale the audience with the news that they had expressed varying degress of hope and determination. By the time I strolled back to the news conference, though, the mood had changed with Peter Robinson shaking his head as Martin McGuinness took him to task about "solo runs".

I am no expert on "suppressed aggressive arousal" (the description one body language specialist gave Good Morning Ulster when asked to describe yesterday's news conference). But it's now hard to imagine the DUP and Sinn Fein chuckling about any date for the devolution of justice this Christmas. Although British and Irish officials will be doing their best to forestall this, it seems likely that early next month Sinn Fein's Ard Comhairle will be pondering their options, deciding how to make good on Martin McGuinness's warning of "deep trouble". Both on and off the record republicans are avoiding putting much flesh on the bones of what exactly "deep trouble" might mean. They prefer to perpetuate their current destructive ambiguity, rather than to let the DUP know exactly what they have in mind.

My colleague Stephen Walker has just pointed out on Evening Extra that whilst the Ulster Unionist peer Lord Laird topped the list for Lord's expenses with the local Conservative peer Lord Ballyedmond visited Westminster 28 times but didn't claim a penny. Of course it helps if you own a firm like

One obvious difference between the MPs' expenses and the Lords' allowances is that when you visit the Parliamentary website you can see facsimilies of individual MPs' receipts, right down to Sammy Wilson's Twix bars, but the details of claims from peers are only broken down into general categories.

I see that next week the Lords will debate a report from recommending changes to some of the Lords' allowances. The report acknowledges that Lords do not get a salary, but says "some Peers are concerned about the operation of their expenses regime. In principle the scheme reimburses expenses incurred in attending the House but in practice over the years the scheme has been used to generate an income for some Peers. Many Peers have been uncomfortable with this and pressed for a review because they believed the current
arrangements, which have evolved over time, lack precision, transparency and rigour."

The SSRB report on the Lords concludes that "we do not believe, on balance, that publication of Members' expenses claims should be at the receipt level", but maybe, given the direction of public opinion, it's only a matter of time before we get the right to see which kind of chocolate bars our peers prefer.

The Assembly is now clocking off for its Christmas break, although the which is dealing with the transfer of justice powers, may hold some further meetings. If any of you want to watch yesterday's marathon session of the which dealt with the Omagh fire tragedy, you can find it on the

The murder of Lorraine McGovern and her children has already been the subject of But even though Michael McGimpsey has asked the barrister to return to Omagh to check that his recommendations have been implemented, the mood of the Health Committee appears to be that a full public inquiry is now the best way forward.

When I hear some callers to our programmes talk about the need for "heads to roll" I have some misgivings. If I make a mistake on this blog I can normally apologise to whoever is concerned. At the worst, I might face a libel action. I am all too aware that in other professions, often less well rewarded than mine, a mistake can lead to a child's death.

Any inquiry must do more than simply line some lawyer's pockets. There's a danger of creating a self fulfilling cycle in which child protection workers feel overworked and undervalued. If they leave or take time off due to stress where will the recruits come from to take their places?

On the other hand the media silence of some of the agencies involved in the Omagh tragedy has done nothing to build public confidence. There appear to be tough questions for various agencies, including the police, to answer over their response to the cry for help from Caroline McElhill and the questioning of Arthur McElhill over an attempted incenmdiary attack.

Today the local branch of the British Association of Social Workers has come out in support of a public inquiry which it argues should not be used "as a witchhunt looking to blame certain professions but rather as an exercise to look at where failings or shortfalls occurred and to decide on measures that will improve the service offered and prevent a similar tragedy happening again."

So perhaps an inquiry is the best option. Certainly the appalling fate of the McElhill children is every bit as heart rending as the abuse of Baby Peter. Even as I write this piece my colleague Julian Fowler is broadcasting about another dreadful breaking story concerning an assault on a 15 month old child. The details in relation to this incident remain unclear, but once again it emphasises the dreadful burden carried by those charged with protecting vulnerable children within our society.

A fairly quiet day at Stormont, despite some spirited attempts by Edwin Poots to turn global warming into a dillemma for Sinn Fein by challenging them to drop their opposition to wind farms off the North Coast. This came during an exchange on the Environment Committee's climate change report which calls for Northern Ireland to set its own CO2 emission targets.

Otherwise the highlight was Martin McGuinness warning MLAs that Gordon Brown's Β£1 billion offer could be under threat if they don't agree the transfer of justice powers.

I took advantage of the relative calm to bunk off "Stormont Live" (thanks to Gareth Gordon for taking my place) and editing together a report for tonight's Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ Newsline which relies on a traffic metaphor. Is the Stormont gridlock going to continue unabated, or are we heading for a crash?

P.S. I didn't get blogging after yesterday's Inside Politics. For those of you who didn't hear it the Conservative spokesman Owen Paterson had a few interesting things to say. He revealed that the Tories intend to amend the currently before the Lords, to ensure no politician gets any extra money for carrying out more than one elected job. Labour may, of course, vote this down in the Commons but the Conservatives will say it's a matter of keeping to Sir Christopher Kelly's intentions. No doubt the DUP's MPs and peers will object strongly to being lectured on double jobbing by Tories with lucrative earmers outside politics.

On the topic of the Lords, Mr Paterson denied that an offer of a place in the Upper House has already been made to Sir Reg Empey, and expressed support for the re-appointment of the Parades Commission, indicating that some kind of body is needed to resolve disputes but the DUP's support for replacing the Commission could be considered in the longer term.

Jim Shannon (for it is he) has asked Michelle Gildernew what's she's doing to promote Game as a menu item in restaurants and homes. The Agriculture Minister notes that EU rules limit the use of funds to promote domestically produced meat. But she advises the game industry to tap into her "Regional Food Programme" which promotes quality local produce.

Given Jim's prowess with decimating Argentinian doves, I can see a marketing opportunity for Strangford wildfowl - how about labelling them "Shot By Shannon"?

When Diane Dodds first took her place in the European parliament she was reported to be unhappy about her proximity to the BNP. Now it's Bairbre De Brun chance to get up close and personal with the new right wing arrivals. According to a missive from the UK Office of the European Parliament, three UK MEPs will be attending the UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen as part of the official European Parliament delegation, Labour's Linda McAvan, Sinn Fein's Bairbre De Brun and the BNP Leader Nick Griffin. Other MEPs will be in attendance although not part of the formal delegation, so maybe Bairbre and Nick won't have to kill too much time in each other's company.

Martin McGuinness didn't answer my colleague Mark Simpson's question directly when asked whether he might resign, instead resorting to the more generalised warning of a "full blown crisis".

But given the way in which the Deputy First Minister and other Sinn Fein politicians are increasingly talking themselves into a corner over a date for the devolution of justice, and the awful mood music around Stormont, it's entirely possible we could be looking at a threat to the stability of the institutions early in the New Year.

Clearly the British and Irish governments will try to forestall this with more frantic activity this side of Christmas. This could involve talking up the process now underway to identify a potential Justice Minister (David Ford still seems the most likely candidate), working to close the gap on parading by suggesting a marriage of the best elements of the current Parades Commission and the tribunals proposed in the Ashdown report, and maybe trying to encourage the parties to consider parading and other thorny issues like the Irish language and expanded north south cooperation in parallel with a step forwards on justice, rather than as a precondition.

But say all that fails? What then? Sinn Fein could adopt the same tactic used for five months last year in refusing to enable the Executive to meet. But that was unpopular with voters across the board, and would surely do republicans no favours.

Alternatively the Deputy First Minister could resign. Under the Good Friday Agreement this would have set a six week clock ticking for the re-election of both the First and Deputy First Ministers, which if it did not happen would trigger a fresh election. However this was amended in the St Andrews Agreement Act 2006 to a period of just seven days.

The ball then bounces into Shaun Woodward's court, because under the original 1998 Act he has the duty to "propose a date for the poll for the election of the next Assembly". But it's worth noting that nothing in the legislation specifies exactly when that date should be. It's not beyond anyone's imagination to believe that in these circumstances the Northern Ireland Office might play for time, stretching matters out to allow for more negotiations which might ease any crisis.

From the NIO viewpoint, it might be better to hold negotiations with the existing cast list of players rather than deal with the permutations potentially thrown up by a new Assembly election, which could see a number of TUV MLAs returned to Stormont, unionism split three ways and Sinn Fein coming in as the biggest party.

But say the NIO decided after some time that they had no option but to call an election, because a reasonable period had passed and they were becoming susceptible to a legal challenge. This brings us once again to the pros and cons the Deputy First Minister must be weighing up as he assesses his options. Attempting to trigger an election has some immediate appeal for Sinn Fein. They see the SDLP still embroiled in a leadership battle and must hope to badly dent their rivals by holding out to nationalist voters the carrot of Sinn Fein taking the top place at Stormont.

Yet this could be a pyrrhic victory as, in these circumstances, we would be likely to see unionists refuse to share power and all parties plunged into fresh talks with increasing demands for a move to a voluntary coalition supported by weighted majority voting - something Sinn Fein views as a conspiracy to exclude them from government. Sinn Fein may take solace from the imposition of a "green tinged" direct rule, but that would still have limited attractions compared to being in office.

Sinn Fein's Plan A must remain to achieve devolution of justice in the short term rather than to get it embroiled in the renegotiation which may be coming their way anyway in 2011. Holding out the prospect of imminent collapse, though, serves a purpose because it keeps the pressure on the DUP, who republicans believe are nervously looking over their shoulder at the prospect of an Assembly election challenge from Jim Allister's Traditional Unionists. The message is "do a deal or face your electoral nemesis".

If collapsing Stormont isn't Sinn Fein's Plan A, that's not to say the latest rhetoric is all hot air and republicans won't dare pull the plug. Neither Martin McGuinness nor Peter Robinson know entirely what is in each other's minds, or how much room for manouevre the other has. Once dire threats are made, it's hard for a political leader to walk away without putting at least some of their money where their mouth once resided.

To paraphrase the old Chinese curse "may you live in interesting times", it looks like we are in for a fascinating Christmas and an even more engrossing New Year.

I'm told there's a technical problem with the blog that has been changing your nicknames into jumbles of numbers and letters. Apparently this has been happening on other blogs across the Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ. The powers that be are investigating, so apologies and do bear with us.

On Tuesday of last week I wrote about how the First and Deputy First Ministers were working on a draft letter inviting nominations for the future Justice minister. Last night the final version landed in MLAs pigeonholes, calling for job applications to be handed in by next Friday and talking about identifying a potential minister before Christmas.

This sounds more in tune with Martin McGuinness's timetable rather than Gregory Campbell's talk of years (although the East Londonderry MP has been in touch to clarify that he was using the terms "years" on the Nolan show or "decades" in the Assembly chamber to illustrate how long the business could be without "community confidence". He says that equally it could happen far more quickly if such confidence is achieved.)

On the face of it, the positive tone of the letter is a contrast to the negative rhetoric which has been flying around between the parties in recent days. Jim Allister reckons its the start of a "roll over" by the DUP, but both the DUP and Sinn Fein are playing it down as essentially an administrative step.

So with the DUP and Sinn Fein counting themselves out of the running, who could the nominations be? Ulster Unionist sources say they won't be responding to the letter officially, although it's thought their deputy leader Danny Kennedy might be their choice if there is a vote in the chamber.

The SDLP intend to attend any party leaders' meeting, but insist that whoever they nominate will still be their choice should the matter come to a formal vote. Essentially they don't want to informally anoint a "chosen one". There's been a fair bit of talk about the barrister Alban Maginness in the past, but party sources were staying tight lipped about their choice pending a meeting early next week. One source even suggested to me that the UUP and SDLP might find a joint nominee - something which would set the cat among the pigeons.

Despite this the most likely scenario remains an Alliance justice minister, probably the leader David Ford. But as our Attorney General designate John Larkin might tell whoever gets nominated next week, it's one thing to be identified for a job, another to actually get down to work.

It's only days since two American socialites made headlines for Now Fianna Fail find they have a guest in their party they weren't quite bargaining on.

Of course Gerry McHugh didn't crash the Fianna Fail party as such. Instead he joined their Fermanagh forum like other individual members in the county. But last night the Fianna Fail press office in Dublin didn't seem aware of his arrival, and today Fianna Fail sources said Mr McHugh hadn't made clear his status as an MLA when he applied for membership.

Mr McHugh may be part of Brian Cowen's party, but he will continue to sit as an independent at Stormont. Fianna Fail told me today they had no intention of seeking a formal places on the blue benches of Stormont and do not plan to contest the 2011 election.

Gerry McHugh's erstwhile colleague, Sinn Fein Chief Whip Caral NΓ­ Chuilin, insists he is "fast becoming a figure of political ridicule". He claims Fianna Fail is the best vehicle to forward his long term republican aims.

As I write, the Justice Bill has just passed its final stage through Stormont. Its the measure which will enable a local politician to take over a new Justice department. The debate largely rehearsed old arguments. In his concluding statement Martin McGuinness told the SDLP that whilst they claimed they were in favour of speedy devolution the only "real politik" way it would be achieved would be through a cross community appointment.

At one point John O'Dowd told Alex Attwood that the SDLP had convinced Sinn Fein of their candidacy for the justice job and Sinn Fein would support them. Is this an indication that republicans are getting cold feet about David Ford? Or is it just a sign that in an election the DUP could be relied on to veto the SDLP, whilst Sinn Fein would block the UUP?

Either way, after hours of debate even the MLAs seemed to have got tired of the same old arguments - the bill passed on a mercifully swift oral vote. Now it is back to the "real politik" world of DUP "community confidence" and Sinn Fein impatience.

Tonight Peter Robinson put out an apparently hard hitting statement which poured scorn on Declan Kearney's speech at Dunloy at the weekend. However he also included a line which seemed to contrast with Gregory Campbell's comments earlier this week indicating it could take years for justice to be devolved. Instead Mr Robinson clarified "making the decision to devolve policing and justice functions will not be measured in years; it will be solely measured in whether outstanding issues are resolved and this can only be done in a climate free from threat."