Will any Tory MPs Back AV?
It's a question I've been asking for months now. Are there any prominent Conservatives who will vote for the Alternative Vote in the referendum? Probably. But will they dare to admit they are doing so?
Of senior ministers, Michael Gove is thought to be a possible Yes voter, but he has yet to commit himself publicly. And I have twice asked the Health Secretary Andrew Lansley how he will vote, and twice he wouldn't say. So two possible Yeses there.
David Mowat, the MP for Warrington South, tells me that he's an "agnostic" on the matter. He has yet to make up his mind, he says, and is not committed to First-Past-The-Post in the way most of his colleagues are. "I think the existing system tends to benefit the Labour Party," he told me today.
Mowat has a majority of 1,553 over Labour in Warrington, and recently said of his situation locally: "If we did have AV and we put Lib Dems second and they put us second, it would be very likely to give us a better result than we might achieve under first-past-the post. There could be a squeeze effect on Labour."
Sounds like a Yes voter to me.
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I'm Michael Crick, and I'm Newsnight's political editor. My guiding rule is that in any story there's usually something the politicians would prefer the world not to know. My job is to find that out. Follow me on
Comment number 1.
At 30th Mar 2011, Kit Green wrote:How could they? That would mean thinking about their views on democracy. Don't rock the boat old chap.
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Comment number 2.
At 30th Mar 2011, William Slater wrote:I think there will be more Conservatives voting for this than we think.
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Comment number 3.
At 30th Mar 2011, Briantist wrote:In a national referendum the Conservative MPs are 307 out of 50.8 million voters. That's 0.0006% of the electorate. Hardly significant, statistically.
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Comment number 4.
At 30th Mar 2011, RW49 wrote:They are never going to say are they, not with their boss so ardently opposed. Unlike the Ed and Nick no-show. Both Old and New Labour know how to bear a grudge, so where there's a Nick, Labour are away. As for the issue itself, if any of these luminaries show me how they would fill in the ballot paper of the by-election just gone (Oldham East etc) with its nine candidates, I'll look at it.
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Comment number 5.
At 31st Mar 2011, Jericoa wrote:hmmm on the balance of postings I reckon 6/5 is a very good bet for a YES outcome.
My record is pretty good... called the hung parliament.. called ed milliband..called the 4th quarter dip.
I am now calling the YES vote.
Why?
Not becuae of any think tank analysis, but because I reckon anything that is different to what we have now, whether it is undertood or not by the electorate will be voted for in the majority.
It may be close but YES will prevail.
Note I dont think the outcome will make any difference to the unforlding political / economic dynamic, the way i see it, it is just a way of making and enjoying afew ££ before the whole thing collapses.
I should work in the city.
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Comment number 6.
At 31st Mar 2011, stevie wrote:they have hidden Nick...but we know he's there...ensuring a NO vote landslide...
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Comment number 7.
At 31st Mar 2011, Steve Cooke wrote:Michael,
Your raison d'etre states, "...My guiding rule is that in any story there's usually something the politicians would prefer the world not to know. My job is to find that out..."
So, you have not established any facts, just mere speculation. Therefore you haven't really found out anything new.
Can you therefore explain the reason for the blog post?
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