Renowned psephologist and inventor of the swingometer moves aside
Friday marks a rather sad and historic day in the history of political science in Britain.
The renowned Oxford psephologist, David Butler, a pioneer of the Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ's election results programmes, will be hosting the very last of his famous Nuffield Friday evening seminars.
This comes at the extraordinary age of 85, after an amazing run of 53 years. The first was held in 1957, the year Harold Macmillan became prime minister.
When I was an Oxford PPE student in the late 1970s, David Butler's Friday seminars were the academic highlight of my week.
Indeed, many weeks they were the only academic event of my week!
And Butler managed to lure a string of big names to his Nuffield College seminar room - Cabinet ministers, civil service mandarins, and leading figures in the media.
All were persuaded to give us frank and fascinating background detail and anecdotal accounts of how politics and power really work in Britain.
Many generations of Oxford students have been inspired by what they heard, and by Butler's teaching, to go into politics themselves, or the civil service, into journalism or academic life.
As a young psephologist Butler invented the concept of swing. As a TV performer in the 50s, 60s and 70s, he helped invent the once famous TV swingometer.
And over 60 years, from 1945 to 2005, he was involved the famous Nuffield election books, co-editing every edition from 1951 onwards.
What remarkable about David Butler is not just his longevity, but his continuing energy and unrelenting enthusiasm for politics and elections, not just in Britain but in several countries abroad - the US, India and Australia.
He was still conducting Oxford undergraduate tutorials until recently, and he still regularly attends seminars and hearings in all sorts of locations, though in recent years he has had to slow the pace to look after his ailing wife, the distinguished English don Marilyn Butler.
David Butler is one of the few remaining figures in British politics to have experience of the whole span of post-war political history. (Two others are Denis Healey and Butler's good friend Tony Benn).
As a don in his 20s, around the year 1950, he was twice summoned by the-then opposition leader Winston Churchill to Chartwell to explain new developments in the developing science of psephology.
"Tell me young man," Churchill reportedly asked Butler, "do you think I've become a liability to my party?"
Butler's brave response?
"Let me put it this way, sir, I'm not sure that you're the asset to your party that you once were."
Sixty years on, Butler himself certainly remains a great national asset, an inspiring figure for politics enthusiasts everywhere.
I will try to get to his final Nuffield seminar tomorrow night, though I fear that Newsnight duties may prevent me.
I'm Michael Crick, and I'm Newsnight's political editor. My guiding rule is that in any story there's usually something the politicians would prefer the world not to know. My job is to find that out. Follow me on
Comment number 1.
At 3rd Jun 2010, stevie wrote:Cameron made an unfortunate comment about Tony Benn yesterday at PMQ's....Benn was an immense statesman who is admired by millions, could the same be said of Cameron when he is in his eighties....I think not..
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Comment number 2.
At 4th Jun 2010, stanilic wrote:I have always thought the swingometer invented by Butler was a hoplessly crude and inadequate mechanism that was no more than a toy used to bewilder the public. As a consequence I concluded long ago that psephology was not much more than a simplistic and trivial analysis of the obvious.
The lasting memory in my mind of Butler is the election of 1970 in which even he had underestimated the potential shift to the Conservatives. I recall it largely because I had just sat my Politics Finals and watched the Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ that evening in the company of a fellow undergraduate who happened also to be the scion of a family of Tory grandees.
Now this other student had been telling us all for months that the Conservatives would win the election. We, all very left of centre, told him not to be so silly as Wilson was a shoe-in. Well, that evening just after Guildford declared, poor old Butler had to go and redo his calculations and the Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ had to get a man to paint a further ten degrees onto the other end of this ugly swingometer. This just proved to me that the parties' private polling is far more accurate than anything else in an election campaign.
Years later as a Liberal candidate pounding the doorsteps I discovered that the swingometer concept was complete rubbish. All parties have a core vote that comes out in all weathers, then they have a sympathetic vote that will come out if they think the party is doing well but stay at home otherwise. Then there are the floaters who quite simply cannot be classified at all as they might vote for the personality as opposed to a party.
The people who make me laugh, other than Butler, are those who think that they vote tactically. What a joke! Elections are not won, they are lost by the ruling party because they have been cack-handed and upset a lot of people. Their party is then saved by their core vote so they can come back next time. Forget everything else the textbooks say as life is too short.
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Comment number 3.
At 4th Jun 2010, MaxWax wrote:1. At 1:39pm on 03 Jun 2010, stevie wrote:
Cameron made an unfortunate comment about Tony Benn yesterday at PMQ's....Benn was an immense statesman who is admired by millions, could the same be said of Cameron when he is in his eighties....I think not..
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I am no fan of Cameron, but who knows what the next 40 years hold for him? I agree it would be a surprise if such comments were made about him.
As to David Butler, my recollections of his television appearances were that he applied his expertise in such a balanced way that I considered it was impossible to guess what his political views were. Contrast this with modern political commentators who rarely manage to conceal their bias.
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Comment number 4.
At 5th Jun 2010, Jericoa wrote:Looks like the swingometer and its creator have had its day if coalition politics are here to stay.
Well done David Cameron by the way for appointing Frank Field and well done frank field for accepting.
A government of all the talents creatively and positively engaged with each other is absolutely what this country will need. Most people as yet have no idea what is comming down the pipe at them as yet (house prices are still on the rise aparently!!...you have got to laugh).
A round Table Cabinet is what we need.
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