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Henley - your anorak writes...

Michael Crick | 19:21 UK time, Friday, 27 June 2008

henleycount203.jpgIf anybody knows the last time that I'd love to hear from them. None of my anorak colleagues in the Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ's Political Research Unit can think of a case, which means it may never have happened before, at least not since 1945.

To slip behind the Greens and the BNP was a dreadful result for Labour, though in percentage terms it was not Labour's worst ever by-election result (as one or two reports have said today). In the Newbury and Christchurch by-elections back in 1993 Labour polled just 2.0% and 2.7% respectively - I remember both contests well, since they were my first election campaigns for Newsnight. And in Winchester, in November 1997, Labour's vote was down to just 1.7 per cent, their modern all-time low (real anoraks can download a ). That contest was only six months into the Blair government, when New Labour nationally was still very popular. But Winchester was a rather strange by-election - a re-run of the May election when the Tories complained about how the Lib Dems had won by just two votes.

Somehow, I suspect this is one of those days when the Lib Dems hope we give them as little coverage as possible - in contrast to their usual complaints! Yet you could argue it was a worse result for Nick Clegg than it was for Gordon Brown. Labour was never going to win Henley in a million years, but there was a time when it would have been a rather good Liberal Democrat by-election prospect - rather like Newbury, Christchurch and Winchester, in fact, which they all won.

For the Liberal Democrats to fare so poorly when Labour's vote was squeezed so heavily, and for the party to suffer a swing to the Conservatives, is really bad news for them - a sign of the big problems the Lib Dems have now that the centre ground of British politics is so crowded, and the Iraq war and student fees are no longer such big issues.

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    anorak?

    in praise of superficiality and ignorance? maybe they are statues in someone's garden?

  • Comment number 2.

    My personal views below -

    Maybe voters thought why believe anything the Lib Dems or Labour put in their Manifesto's as they could choose to break these election promises after being elected ?

    There does seem to be a perception out here these two parties did Not honor their respective 2005 manifestos promises over the EU Treaty issue ?

    But hay , maybe this has nothing to do with their poor showings .

  • Comment number 3.

    The question that cries to be asked, and clearly wasn't by Michael Crick when he strolled the streets of Henly, is why this Labour Government is in such a parlous state. Why is that, for the good folk of Henly, the BNP and the Green Party are considered worthier of electoral support than Brown's Labour party ?

    It may be that some people find it impossible to vote for someone whose Party leader engages in fingernail chewing or has a dour expression. And perhaps some people judge their political parties, not on their policies, but on their fund-raising capabilities.

    But I suspect that the Labour Party is in the doldrums because the Labour Government is now generally perceived to be worse than useless. It has spent to excess on public services and yet the results in such areas as Education and Health have been less than impressive: it has sent young men and women to fight in foreign lands, but has not provided them with the right equipment to protect themselves in combat and the treatment of their loved ones left at home - the standard of houses offered to service men's families, the miserable pay etc - is truly disgraceful: it boasts of being tough on terrorism, and reinforces this claim by resorting to illiberal measures such as the 42 day nonsense, but then allows terrorists, rapist and murderers from foreign lands to remain in Britain instead of being deported. And it cannot be trusted to tell the truth or keep its promises:- the Iraq lies and the reneging on the Lisbon treaty being just two examples of its perfidy.

    The list of failures and broken promises is there for all to see. And if Michael Crick has bothered to ask the Henly voters, I have no doubt they would have told him so.


  • Comment number 4.

    I think Michael is right - it was worse for the Lib Dems than Labour.

    I suspect that the tactics weren't right and that may cloak whether or not he is making headway.

    Given the harshness of the Lib Dem senior ranks over the last three years I think he had better be making progress.

    For Labour I think it shows three things.

    1. They are bust
    2. The "Crewe emergency budget" had no effect. Trust is damaged.
    3. They have a massive problem with activists. 10p and 42 Days - before Iraq is even considered - must have wasted their reserves. Unless there is radical change I am not convinced we won't see the kind of political meltdown never seen before.

  • Comment number 5.

    When I heard that Labour had been beaten by both the greens and the BNP, I laughed out loud.

    Labour's humiliation was well deserved. Nobody trusts Labour any more, least of all the white working class. And the middle class have returned to the Tories as they know full well that a vote for the Lib Dems is effectively a vote for Labour in the event of a hung Parliament at the next General Election. The Tories need a big lead for a working majority next time and all the signs are looking very good indeed for them.

  • Comment number 6.

    It is not surprising that Labour came 5th. They have created such a mess that people have lost all faith and any respect for them. I remember when Nick Griffin was envited on to Newsnight. He spoke with sensitivity and common sence. I suspect a large majority of the British public would like to see The British National Party gain a few seats so that their policies are implimented. The situation is very serious. People want want change and are no longer prepared to trust any Labour front bench Minister to deliver it.

Μύ

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