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Friday, 17th October, 2008

Ian Lacey | 17:23 UK time, Friday, 17 October 2008

Here's Gavin with a look ahead to tonight's Newsnight:

Today's Quote for the Day:

"I would have waited for the banks to fail and then nationalised them for nothing."
Former Mayor of London Ken Livingstone, on how he would have dealt with the financial crisis.

In tonight's programme:

Split
First it was Madonna and Guy Ritchie, now the uncomfortable relationship that was burgeoning between the Conservative party and the government seems to be over. The temporary truce between the opposition and Labour over the credit crisis ended with David Cameron's speech to the City this morning. The Tory leader said Gordon Brown's strategy had "fundamentally failed". But what alternatives are the Conservatives putting forward? Michael Crick will be analysing Tory tactics.

Scotland
Scotland's World Cup qualifier with Norway may have been uncomfortable watching for the Hampden faithful but the Nordic nation is one the Scottish First Minister holds up as an example of a small country which can successfully manage its own economy. But, after last week's bailout of RBS and HBOS (S standing for Scotland in both cases), we'll be asking First Minister, Alex Salmond whether his proposals for Scottish independence are still viable.

Danube Blues
Hungary, on the other hand, could end up having to turn to international institutions to support its economy. In the latest of her reports from across Europe, Liz MacKean is on the banks of the Danube to explain its financial blues.

Join me at 10.30 and find out what Martha has in store on Newsnight Review here.

Gavin

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    Not sure, but maybe London dodged a bullet there.

    My grasp of high finance isn't as good as many, especially those who post here, but Mr. Livingstone's comments seem more designed to get him a slot hosting an afternoon show.

    I'm pretty sure that letting a plane crash would be a nifty way to get the wreckage cheap; just not as sure what would become of those in it, those depending on it and how likely I'd be to try getting on board again.

    But it's a view well worth sharing here I guess, out of the many others that could have been.

    Will he be invited on, again, to share it in person? I can understand there are only so many upon whom Newsnight can call.

  • Comment number 2.

    all scotland needs to do is create a people's bank that will sweep the floor because it has no dodgy debt.

    the markets are waiting for tuesday because that is the deadline for paying up on the lehman credit default swaps. Its still not known who has them. Maybe no one? Which will mean anyone who lost billions in Lehmans might have really have lost it which will bring a few more financial houses [like insurance] down which will trigger more cds which would bring more houses down that will....etc

    AIG is asking for another 30 billion on top of the existing 40 billion.

    Ken might yet see that method of nationalisation come into play.

  • Comment number 3.

    Today I heard Mr Cameroon say that he would not forget that it was Gondor (son of give em more) Browns economic policies that caused the Credit Crunch. I agree that Tory Blair and Gondor have failed the British public by continuing with Thatchers deregulation of everything. I hope Cameroon has not forgotten that episode.
    Oh I do wish those boy's would play nice.

  • Comment number 4.

    Paul Mason's Blog
    Backroom Battle Rages comment 6 12 Oct
    'sensible economy'

    "So now global leaders are meeting. Using ? or $ 100s billions to try and force the global economy up the same impossible slope. President Bush says we want a stronger economy. I would suggest we need a more 'sensible economy' ."

    I suppose tonight you might show a clip of Cameron standing infront of a sign saying 'responsible economy'.

    As regards Salmonds arc of prosperity and Cameron's trip to Norway and rebranding of the Tories.

    ALL MSPs at Holyrood had this at the start of April. Scroll down to Northern Tundra Alliance?




    I told the SNP the Scottish, UK and Global economies would crash more than 2 years ago.

    If the SNP had wanted they could have prevented the entire situation from happening.

    If Newsnight has access to a library check out the magazine Newstart 18th January 2008 Vol 417. Read my article The Lion Rampant. It was the first assessment of the Scottish Government's economic development strategy by the mag. I think some of the guests in a studio discussion with Paxman on 23rd used it as a reference.

    Roger Jardine Thomas
    Celtic Lion

  • Comment number 5.

    Sorry that should have been

    "ALL MSPs at Holyrood had this at the start of April"-2006-". Scroll down to Northern Tundra Alliance?"

    3 weeks before Cameron went to Norway, obviously ALL includes Annabel Goldie, Murdo Fraser....

  • Comment number 6.

    Its not good enough that the politicians sling mud with regard to the economic credit crunch if that obscures what the truth is.

    For the life of my I cannot see why people are not asking for a public inquiry into this because clearly we do need to know the facts and don't need the propaganda.

    Doubtless Labour will have an inquiry chaired by Mandelson, spun by Campbell, and duly find themselves innocent of any mistakes of policy and execution of governmental responsibilities.

    The "viability" of an independent Scotland is a sham argument.

    We would not begrudge any other small nation their right to independence. It is fair that Salmonds view of the Northern Tigers looks a bit shallow. If the Scots want away they should be away.

    Personally I am for the Union, but would happily accept an independent Scotland. Lets have a proper debate rather than sleepwalk into the breakdown of the Union in 2010.

  • Comment number 7.

    You do not have to travel across Europe to know that it is the private central bank system that is in trouble.
    Except for energy-rich countries.
    The private central banks' own debt-based money system and fractional reserve banking are to blame.
    The business-cycle repair has to be carried-out periodically otherwise the system would inflate its way to oblivion and be replaced.
    And it should be replaced.

  • Comment number 8.

    ANOTHER QUOTE FOR TODAY

    "Answers to questions are not a matter for me" (Speaker Martin).

    Well that just about sums up the Westminster charade - does it not? It's official: 'honourable' members are INVITED to be disingenuous, to obfuscate and to utterly let down the voters who sent them there. Their dishonour is absolute. Meanwhile Batman Martin smirks down from on high, and sees that 'it is good'.

    This is not democracy. We need a hero.

  • Comment number 9.

    Blame
    -------

    How can the government even try and defend the amount of debt their new disjointed BofE and FSA system allowed people to get into and allowed the banks just to carry on lending !

    Just look at the house price bubbles compared to other Boom and Busts 1977-1981, 1989-1992 and now 2003- 2008.


    look at the *"UK_house_prices_adjusted_for_inflation"

    *"First Time Buyer House Price Earnings Ratios"

    How could these experts who get paid to monitor these things not notice the trends ?

    It just isn't credible to me that the Government did not see this coming , unless they believed in their own spin of "No return to Boom and Bust" ?


    *These are xls spreadsheet files

  • Comment number 10.

    1. At 6:09pm on 17 Oct 2008, JunkkMale

    This is not to say I think the way this HAS been handled has been very satisfactory.

    Especially now, a mere few weeks after the crises, rescues and bail-outs, it seems pretty clear that, contrary to claims made at senior government level (making anything these guys say or do worth what....?) bonus culture is alive, well and thriving.... still.

    I have already been offended by mealy-mouthed dissembling that accepts some outrageous remuneration in not appropriate just 'for a year' (after trillions in public money have been used to prop up the systems), but now I find that in many cases this year is being addressed more in shares which, bearing in mind they are currently at bottom and can only go up, look set to provide a pretty decent windfall in a matter of years. Do what?

    Just who was this miracle rescue package rescuing?

    Especially when it also seems the banks are awash with cash, especially from Asia, and the problem that we the taxpayer is 'helping; is their reluctance to lend to each other at a perceived higher risk, yet scooping off internally from that which has been boosted thanks to the hapless taxpayer.

    Taking the analogy above, it seems to me that most of us were not so much in a plane as a national 'Virgin Galactic'. And to ensure that a minority elite get to maintain their Kodak moment in the stratosphere the fuel was pumped from the main body to the escape pod, which was allowed to crash with all in it, while the gilded ones soared to the stars.

    No way to run a country.


  • Comment number 11.

    A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE

    Steve-London (#9) "It just isn't credible to me that the Government did not see this coming, unless they believed in their own spin of "No return to Boom and Bust" ?"

    People voted for anarchism (technically, Austrian School anarcho-capitalism without the gold-standard). The backers of Thatcher and Blair will have made their money out of booms, i.e. predatory lending, subterfuge (securitization) and sell off of 'family silver' (and gold). Those in government were to ensure that goverment (and light-touch 'independent regulation') was light/minimal, i.e. didn't obstruct 'market forces'.

  • Comment number 12.

    'I'M A FAILURE!'

    That was the cry of triumph, from Frank Spencer when, at last, he found an identity.

    We are the Ape Confused by Language and - surprise! - confusion reigns. The cleverest among us apply their talents to becoming rich, powerful or both. It is not fundamental to our nature to apply our cleverness to the uplift of others (perhaps because we are clever enough to realise that this dilutes our position?)

    It looks pretty certain that the combined momentum of 6.7 million agitated people, all going the wrong way, cannot be influenced from inside the swarm.

    I just had two pairs of Jehovah Witnesses call, in quick succession. I turned them away. Doh!

  • Comment number 13.


    Barrie

    Did you mean 6.7 billion? What is the reference to 6.7 million?

    Keep plugging away. Once there is the realisation of the challenge or problem, only then can the solutions be implemented.

    Ecological systems will collapse in 4 years with 6.7 billion dead, if we do not change the momentum. Yet the media are strangely quiet on the situation. Preferring to discuss money.


    By Prof Jay W Forrester Counterintuition in Social Systems

    In many instances it then emerges that the known policies describe a system which actually causes the troubles. In other words, the known and intended practices of the organization are fully sufficient to create the difficulty, regardless of what happens outside the company or in the marketplace. In fact, a downward spiral develops in which the presumed solution makes the difficulty worse and thereby causes redoubling of the presumed solution.

    The same downward spiral frequently develops in government. Judgment and debate lead to a program that appears to be sound. Commitment increases to the apparent solution. If the presumed solution actually makes matters worse, the process by which this happens is not evident. So, when the troubles increase, the efforts are intensified that are actually worsening the problem.

  • Comment number 14.

    NOUGHT (sic) CARE I

    Well spotted Celtic. My school report always said: "Too many silly mistakes."

  • Comment number 15.

    The fact that the UK economy is now overly dependent on the 'City of London' for its prosperity gives the lie to the Thatcherite argument that we do not require a strong manufacturing base from which to build our strength.

    The Continentals, who now own our 'old'(and a lot of our new) industries, and the likes of the Irish are, unlike the cradle of the Industrial Revolution, in a position to build and manufacture their way out of recession.

    Gordon Brown's economic miracle is based on no more than throwing a bucket of money onto the conflagration and praying(son of the Manse) that things don't flare up again.

    Margaret Thatcher abolished completely all forms of pay controls, price controls, dividend controls and exchange controls, and Gordon Brown saw that it was good.

    Well if you can't bear 'em join 'em: and New Conservatism begat New Labour and New Labour begat de-regulation of the markets, and de-regulation of the markets begat the sub-prime mortgage crisis, which begat the Credit Crunch, and the credit crunch begat the failure of the world banking system. And Gordon Brown said: look at all that I have done, surely I am the Son of Thatcher?

    Yet I am left wondering, 3 decades of oil money and in all that time, what has this country got to show for it? Everyone up to their ears in debt and nobody knowing who owns those debts and hoping a restoration of 'Market Confidence' will make it all better.

    There, there then.

  • Comment number 16.

    Hi Jean

    Thanks for replying, sorry this is a long reply.

    I don't think it has anything to do with Thatcher's time in office, she was elected in 1979 , the 1977 housing boom started under Labour.

    But if you noticed in those Nationwide statistics (ref post 9) the 1977 - 1981 and the 1989-1991 booms are small beer compared to Blair/Browns housing boom.

    In previous Booms and Bust the BofE always stepped in and increased their interest rates to stop it from going nuclear (like we have today).

    What has changed from the previous Booms and Busts ?

    Going back to Dec 2003 Gordon Brown changed how the BofE monitored inflation , they switched from using the RPI based model to the European harmonized standard model called the CPI (the original name HICP).

    The CPI in the past has been constantly lower than the RPI messure of inflation and thus allowed the BofE to keep interest rates lower and allowed the good times to roll on.
    If the BofE had used the RPI inflation measurement for setting interest rates there would have been higher rates over the past 5 years and reduced the amount of debt people would be willing or even afford to borrow, thus reducing the Boom of debt and the Boom of house prices

    Also with the BofE using the RPI more people would have saved (higher returns for savers), this in itself would have recapitalized the banks and they would not have been in such a sorry state we find today needing the tax payer to bail them out !

    I don't know what motives Mr Brown had for this change , though I could speculate on 2 or 3 -

    1) Keeping wage demands artificially low ?
    2) Not wanting 10% interest rates during the 2005 General Election ?
    3) Playing to the Euro supporters club who still want to join the Euro ?

    Some might say "Ahh but what about the USA ?" , the US central bank has a different mandated compared to the BofE , their mandate is to keep the economy out of recession (constant growth) , the BofE mandate is to keep inflation under control , the two are not comparable as they have different goals.


    Some reading on the RPI And CPI


    s-hard-to-get-the-measure-of-inflation.html

    Even the BofE boss saying the CPI is flawed to stop house price inflation




    Even listening to Mr Brown talking about new regulation for the banking sector should raise eye brows , he has criticise them for keeping debt of their books (hiding it away) , but what has he done with PFI and PPP ?
    The very same thing !


    Brown should go , he is not Flash Gordon , he is Crash Gordon !


    *All the above are my personal views on the whole sorry affair , if you think I have something wrong , please correct me and I will be glad to learn more and of course post a correction with a thank you.

  • Comment number 17.

    NAKED EMPEROR BROWN (#16)

    Hi Steve. Even I (with very limited monetary grasp) spotted that Brown openly criticised off-balance-sheet money. But that brings us back to my chosen field: psychology.

    Although both Blair and Brown have a 'Straight Kind of Guy' front, I think Blair struggled to fool himself all of the time. But with Brown, it seems different; he would appear to be genuinely split. I don't think he has an inkling of the incompatibility between 'Son of Manse - Moral Compass' Gordon, and 'Grin of Pure Devilment' Gordon, sitting by Darling at the 10p moment of 'triumph' or deviously taxing, and hiding debt. I suspect, of the two, Brown is the more dangerous. I believe he can be duped. Indeed, I have a feeling Blair and Mandelson might just have a tailoring business - in which Campbell is the tea boy -where Emperor Brown gets all his imaginary suits - and a lot of his newfound, illusory, self-belief.

    My point, as ever, is that we could easily find ourselves under someone REALLY NASTY, unless the Westminster pool is cleaned and the filter system (route to the top) - that only has misshapen holes in it - gets re-designed. Even as I type, the next failed pop-star, or worse, with drives and objectives far darker than Blair's 'Fame and Fortune', is probably surveying Westminster, as a parasitic wasp surveys a fat, juicy caterpillar where eggs can be laid.

  • Comment number 18.

    Barrie (#17) "Indeed, I have a feeling Blair and Mandelson might just have a tailoring business - in which Campbell is the tea boy -where Emperor Brown gets all his imaginary suits - and a lot of his newfound, illusory, self-belief......
    //
    Even as I type, the next failed pop-star, or worse, with drives and objectives far darker than Blair's 'Fame and Fortune', is probably surveying Westminster, as a parasitic wasp surveys a fat, juicy caterpillar where eggs can be laid."

    Excellent.

  • Comment number 19.

    "ANOTHER FINE QUOTE"

    On Sunday AM, the man with 30 years at the FSA declared (in his wisdom) "Risk was under-priced".

    No no, Mr FSA-man, CONFIDENCE WAS OVERRATED!

    It's the psychology stupid.

    On the same program Brian the Banker (since Adam was a lad) informed us that Banks need leaders of quality to avoid money-messes. Governments too - eh - Sir Brian?

    (Thanks JJ - I felt better after writing that, for at least a nano-second.)

  • Comment number 20.

    Hi Newsnight and fellow posters.

    It is Sunday 19th and I just got around to watching Monday's Special. It was worth watching but there was too much inaccesible Bla Bla, 麻豆约拍 news style, language used. Will Hutton was relatively good as was Gillian Tett - but the debate used convoluted terms, 'inlanguage' , jargon, euphamisms - especially the 'accuser' guy in the big wheel!

    So, I wonder if fellow posters鈥 will support me in asking for another such Special as soon as possible (and why not a weekly one ) but with people like Bird and Fortune, Rory Bremner, Will Self, Andrew Gilligan, Joe Brand etc鈥 (please make your suggestions) - and why not some good posters on this site, to put the questions to some of the 鈥榗rooks鈥 and 鈥楩raudsters鈥, using ordinary pithy, terminology so that we licence paying viewers can get a grasp on both the enormity of the crime and the SIMPLICITY of it. (simple in that the more complicated it is made to look the more can be got away with)!

    My take on it all is as follows: it was not Reds under the Beds or Alkieda terrorists who have brought down capitalism it is Banking Directors and their boards, misappropriating our (depositors) money and pensions in league with Thatcher, Reagan, Blair, Brown and Bush.
    Put simply it is the biggest swindle on ordinary people ever 鈥 the best example of legalised robbery ever!!!!!!!!! Yet most people I speak to about it are like rabbits caught in headlights in not being able to grasp Brown鈥檚 and Bushes culpability in the 鈥榗rime鈥 鈥 for wasn鈥檛 it Brown (Bush鈥檚 chief Trojen Horse in Europe) who only last year vetoed EU attempts to bring in regulation? We need to hear more about this as Brown is speciously parading now as the chief saviour 0f the system, so that it can go back to business as usual and two fingers to taxpayers. I believe that any regulation now planned will not be genuine and effective Brown has anything to do with drawing up new rules!

    We need to debate on a Special What will it mean to have our taxes tied up in the propping up of this huge FRAUD 鈥 Will it mean that we Brits now will never be able to catch up to European standards in pensions, hospitals, good schools,care of the elderly etc etc? This needs debating as I don鈥檛 believe that our tax will ever be paid back!
    Can we have relevant people in from Europe on the Special too to give other perspectives asI find it frustrating that 麻豆约拍 news is always reported in an Island mentality 麻豆约拍 insular bubble.

    The poll was a bit misleading. I wanted to vote for Government and Banking CEOs equally. Also my vote was for Governments as in UKs and America鈥檚 鈥 as I believe other Governments wanted regulation but were stymied in this by Brown. We need this debated as Brown is out there trying to deflect the blame by making out to the confused electorate that all are equally to blame, 鈥渋t wasn鈥檛 me gov鈥!

    One more BIG question that no one is asking: where are the rich hiding their wealth - can we ask the Banking CEOs with their bonuses, and Brown - and Mandalson, where has he stashed his recently acquired Million (tax payers money again) i wonder? Have they got it in gold bars in some secret vault or bank?? Well, we have the right to know given that we poor taxpayers are being forced to replace it.

  • Comment number 21.

    #20 I've got an asbo.

    Agree with you on the language.

    eg I have been reading up on Credit Default Swaps.

    RE the impenetrable language.

    Where do you think the money has been hidden?

  • Comment number 22.

    IF LEMMINGS COULD FLY LOW-COST (20)

    There is a parallel between news that becomes art, and value that becomes confidence; both become LESS REAL in the transition. (Manifestly: when 'art' and 'value' combine, rationality evaporates, and naked emperors pay high prices for imaginary, confidence-based, 'worth'. (Dunno if that's germane.)
    I suspect there are many other substitutions going on, and that it is an all- pervasive malaise, either of our time or of mankind.
    I am given to understand that Gibbon characterised the fall of the Roman Empire in very similar terms.
    It may well be that the cancer has now spread to many different organs of the global being (of which money is one) and decline is unavoidable.
    Having said all that, I applaud any tilt at the windmills of governance, media and the like, if only to see what happens (or doesn't).
    I would only add that we need psychological comment also, if we are to stand a chance of true comprehension. I see there are other books about, that inspect the collapse of complex societies (NB, ones that limit complexity by taboo seem to endure) perhaps writers of such should be hauled in also?
    In simple terms: I think we are going mad.
    Lemmings don't fly, but if they did, when overpopulation got them agitated, they would all head for the airports - sound familiar? Perhaps 'electronic association' makes us all feel too close to too many.

  • Comment number 23.

    COMPLEX DOUBLE ACTS, POLITICAL CORRECTNESS AND UNAFFORDABLE HOUSING

    "It will guarantee that our financial system will continue to meet the needs of underserved communities, something that the vice president and I have tried to do through the empowerment zones, the enterprise communities, the community-development financial institutions, but something which has been largely done through the private sector in honoring the Community Reinvestment Act. The legislation I sign today establishes the principles that, as we expand the powers of banks, we will expand the reach of that act. In order to take advantage of the new opportunities created by the law, we must first show a satisfactory record of meeting the needs of all the communities a financial institution serves. I want to thank Senator Sarbanes and Congressman LaFalce for their leadership on the CRA issue. I want to applaud the, literally, hundreds of dedicated community groups all around our country, that work so hard to make sure the CRA brings more hope and capital to hard-pressed areas."



    Look at Clinton's tightening up of the 1977 Community Reinvestment Act () in 1995 bearing in mind the dramatically changing ethnicity of the USA (and what comes with it). Then look at and especially the .

    The 1999 Act was bi-partisan... but... if only as a counterfactual, what if there aren't REALLY two main parties in the USA any more than there are two main parties in the UK? The spin might make it APPEAR that the CRA and its modifications were designed to help the 'underserved', but who does it, increased immigration, education, education, education (with its impact on TFRs and loans), and political correctness really benefit?

    See and its report ACORN and John McCain.

    After all, does it not?

    "In the 1930s, at the trough of the Depression, when Glass-Steagall became law, it was believed that government was the answer. It was believed that stability and growth came from government overriding the functioning of free markets. We are here today to repeal Glass-Steagall because we have learned that government is not the answer. We have learned that freedom and competition are the answers. We have learned that we promote economic growth, and we promote stability, by having competition and freedom. I am proud to be here because this is an important bill. It is a deregulatory bill. I believe that that is the wave of the future. And I am awfully proud to have been part of making it a reality. (Applause.)"

    Senator Gramm at at the signing of the Financial Modernization Act (1999)

    It should go without saying (but it's worth saying again anyway): it's happening here. Over 99% of London's growth over the next three decades (a generation) is projected by the Lord Mayor's Office to be in BME groups. Contrary to all the spin, people are not changed by changing their environments. Only a change in genes changes people.

  • Comment number 24.

    THAT'S YOU THAT IS! (Newman and Baddiel)

    Remember the desperate baby monkey clinging, wild eyed, to the 'mother effigy' that offered SOME softness, in preference to the wire frame with a teated bottle protruding?
    Whatever became of that monkey? Leader of industry? Merchant Banker? Prime Minister? Remarkably adaptable us primates.
    But deprivation leaves its mark. Infant schooling and 'education X 3' amounts to a wire frame with a sterile bottle. Whatever we feel a need for, in later life, we can never have enough to make up. Small wonder then that 'leaders' want 'ever larger dominion' while bankers want ever greater hauls and Prime Ministers: even more Wealth and Status (Blair) or elevation to the realms of Mythic Hero (Brown) or to reign for ever - on and on and on - (Thatcher).
    While we wreck our young, they will grow up to wreck their lives (and others) and the environment.
    Is it any wonder that Starfleet Command had to fill that technological miracle - 'The Enterprise' - with a bunch of misfits and nutters, led by a sexual predator (sounds familiar?). It was all they could find, and by the 23rd Century, the entrance exam was a doddle!

  • Comment number 25.

    Barrie

    You slightly disappoint me.

    For someone who should know about about Magrathea and Slatibartfarst.

    Have you never ever considered entering in Google:

    applied planetary engineering

    Just to see who Google ranks No 1 on the subject.

    Share and enjoy.

  • Comment number 26.

    ONLY SLIGHTLY DISAPPOINTED? (#25)

    Then my mum had you beat sir. That might just put a dent in your rating as No 1!

    Must try harder.

  • Comment number 27.

    #26 Barrie

    My Mums the same. I contributes to two Nobel prizes last year. She takes phone messages from Nobel Prize winners about my work, but still doesn't get it.

    Search within the site. It got listed in the top Scottish blog sites, many I read. So it is written in a shouty style, many of the ilke employed.

    There are many solutions to future problems already contained in the site. Nothing less than I hope you would expect from a top ranked planetary engineering company.

    If you haven't worked it out. Alex Salmond (SNP) last year came up with this idea for a Celtic Lion economy.

    I had already told the SNP in Jan 2006 that Scottish, UK and global economies would collapse, accurate to when and the amounts involved. Even though they knew what would happen, they decided to do nothing about it.

    So I bought the company name and domains to do something that will work. Fathers family Welsh, mothers Scottish, Irish Aunty, me born in August.

    Celtic Lion

  • Comment number 28.

    The government has released information about contact with UFOs over Britain. So that's where all the money went.

  • Comment number 29.

    When billions or trillions are 'wiped off' (scared out of) the stock markets, don't they end up in bank accounts or in government bonds.....?

  • Comment number 30.

    MORE ON THE COST OF POLITICAL CORRECTNESS: PARCELS OUT WINDOWS

    ".. access to credit in lower-income communities is obviously much greater today than when the CRA was enacted. This greater access has had tangible benefits, such as the increase in homeownership rates (Joint Center for Housing Studies, 2006). However, recent problems in mortgage markets illustrate that an underlying assumption of the CRA--that more lending equals better outcomes for local communities may not always hold. Whether, and if so, how to try to differentiate "good" from "bad" lending in the CRA context is an issue that is likely to challenge us for some time. One possible strategy is to place more weight in CRA examinations on factors such as whether an institution provides services complementary to lending--for example, counseling and financial education."




    Couselling and financial education???

    Have a look at these USA population growth projections (. In the UK it will be be Muslims, in the USA it's largely Hispanic Catholics. Then look at the MBA's on mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures, bearing in mind the sine qua non for 'educability' covered elsewhere (Note, the USA learned after 2000 that many Hispanics were classing themsleves as White).

    In the interest of encouraging a little calm and perspective, 'some is not all' of course, and the rise in the rate of loan delinquency and foreclosure is relatively high in the sub-prime sector (and in the southern states because that's where the Hispanic population has grown most) in part because of the Thatcher like increased pressure on people to own their own homes or take out other loans (car, refinance, college loans etc) - debt-slavery also induces people to work which theoreticaly should keep crime levels down. But, if anything, surely the tightening up of the CRA in 1995 and the repeal of Glass-Steagall in 1999, drove banks to use other sources, (i.e brokers and other firms) to hawk and then securitize these higher risk loans which were then sold on at a discount into the international markets to reduce essentially . One thinks of what some prisoners used to do before 'slopping out' was ended - 'toxic' parcels shoved out the windows.

    In the USA, doesn't it look like they were ALL in this together? It's a cynical take on the USA's push for globalisation maybe, but it has some merit.

  • Comment number 31.

    Is the Republican Party in the US going to have a split?

    Colin Powell will take some people with him.

    McCain has rejected Bush publicly. If he loses he will have to move off centre stage. There seems to be no natural successor.

    Therefore there will be a battle that will probably be won by the neo-Cons - or a modified grouping if the economic flak gets worse.

    So will we get an even more right wing (though thankfully not Holocaust Deniers in the vein of the fanatic above) Republican party or will they potentially move to the middle and reject them?

  • Comment number 32.

    thegangofone (#31) You appear not to understand that

    That is, National Socialism (note the words) and Stalinism were systems. It is the Neocons who are Right Wing.

    Right-wing political correctness serves anarcho-capitalism (whether Austrian or Chicago School) by eroding regulation and central authority. That these left-wing systems are vilified the way that they are is right-wing free-marketeer propaganda whereby anarchistic deregulators/activists shape electorates to vote for one of the Liberal Democrat parties either by using fabricated horror stories or by exaggerating historical facts. Holocaust Denial (like sexism, racism, and especially anti-semitism, i.e pro-semitism cf. 'the war on terror') is but one of a panoply of white and black techniques which have been used politically since the end of WWII to bias European, Asian and USA electorates against statism.

    Whether that's been for the good or bad is perhaps moot. Whether what I say is true or false is quite another and something I leave others (who are prepared to look at the evidence) to decide for themselves.

  • Comment number 33.

    #32 jaded_jean

    In my world its virtually impossible that you don't know that its a pack of lies that there was no Holocaust. There is abundant evidence both physical and testimony. Its propaganda and I could not care less whether you regard it as right or left.

    Having read you and others I think on this issue the threat to freedom of speech is much less than the risk of hate and prejudice being exported.

    Thats why I am actively trying to encourage politicians to consider a limited criminal penalty.

    Then with your abundant "evidence" you could have your day in court and prove to the world how right you are.

    Or perhaps you would actually feel ... well .. a little guilty.

    I feel unclean even discussing it with you.



  • Comment number 34.

    The two questions are what the disease is and what cure is the cure.

    The disease in my opinion is not Capitalism but the failure to regulate the excesses of capitalism. The Blair/Brown administration rode along quite nicely for a long time on the prosperity generating inheritance from Thatcher/Major. They did little to curb any of the excesses of the post big bang world 鈥 it was not in their political interests to do so. The election victories of 1997, 2001 and 2005 were all predicated on a fairly laissez-faire (light ouch) regulatory system. In these conditions the fat cats and the greedy incompetents in the private sector (especially, but not only, in the banks) thought that they were fireproof, - that Government would not interfere with their drive for wealth. And they were right.

    Now for the cure. At the Conservative Party conference in 2007 David Cameron ranted on about the need for less not more regulation. Here is some of what he said:

    ? 鈥淓very generation of Conservatives has to make the argument all over again for free enterprise, for freedom, for responsibility, for limited government.鈥

    ? 鈥淚 don't believe in an ever larger state doing more and more.鈥

    ? 鈥溾his new world of freedom is having huge effects on business and our economy. Big business can now locate anywhere in the world, small businesses can find customers anywhere in the world and Britain has some great advantages in this globalised world. Not least because of the changes we made 15 or 20 years ago.鈥

    ? 鈥淎nd I know that business wants to hear from the Conservative Party how we will reduce regulation and reduce taxation to give them more freedom in this new world鈥 and we heard from Alan Duncan how we will introduce regulatory budgets to cut that regulation...鈥

    ? 鈥淸We will] get tax and regulation down for the long term good of our economy and that is the modern Conservative change for this new world of freedom.鈥

    These quotes show beyond any doubt that the Tories had no answer to the problems of today because they did not see that the developing economic morass was initially of their making. Their ideology is utterly wanting. They have no credibility at all.

    I know that there is an irony in Brown having to clear up a mess that in no small measure was of his own making. But he is doing it and doing it well. A period of silence from Mr Cameron would be welcome.

  • Comment number 35.

    #34 Censura
    Quiet from Mr. Cameron is the last thing we want.

    In my world we still don't know exactly what went wrong with the economic machinery and when it went wrong and what people did or didn't do when they realised that it had gone wrong. What combination of politicians, bankers and regulators.

    Therefore how would we know whether Mr. Brown had cleared up the mess?

    Is it not right that politicians should be held to account by the public for what they have done. Perhaps Brown did do something right. Its not an impossibility. The buck won't stop with Brown if he can help it.

    Maybe if there was a public inquiry all of the facts would be made known and then we could be confident we won't get this problem again and we would have solid information about what worked and didn't work in our responses.

  • Comment number 36.

    PETITO PRINCIPII

    thegangofone (#33) Look up Petito Principii and just give what I have said a little more thought. At root it has little to do with the details of the Holocaust per se, it is primarily about political propaganda and hegemony. Look into where the evidence for your beliefs came from, and ask yourself how critical you have been of any of it.

    European Holocaust Denial legislation is designed to proscribe a type of politics (which, during the Cold War might have helped the USSR, or may have recreated what happened in the 1930s). Can you imagine the free-market enshrining EU Lisbon Treaty having gone as far as it has if member states were governed along statist, quasi National Socialist lines? It is the anarchistic Austrian and Chicago Schools of free-market economics which are Right Wing.

    What we have seen recently is just a taste of what's likely to happen in years to come under more 'light-touch' market regulation. We will hear much rhetoric about regulation as free-market ideologues are now worried, but they can't regulate, as such statism contradicts their basic economic philosophy. Thye have set up shells in the past, usually poorly resourced/paid. What we have seen is one group passing of it's 'securitized' waste to some other unsuspecting, more remotely related ('offshore') group. The alleged to spot and root out bad value has been shown to be a sham, i.e. a predatory illusion.

    You appear to want the courts to serve as inquisitors or political enforcers. Wouldn't that be anti free-market? Surely it's not the job of the courts to decide what is and is not historical or scientific fact? Is this not one of the reasons why we have some separation of powers between the executive and judiciary?

    Ask yourself: a) what's wrong with hating predatory deception and exploitation of the vulnerable? b) Furthermore, if what one says is based on objective empirical analysis of data, how does that render one's conclusions 'prejudices'? Surely one is 'prejudiced' (or irrational) if and when one tenaciously holds on to one's premises as true after one has been provided with reasonable evidence to reject them as false (or at least, to doubt them)?

    If things are not entirely clear in your world, I suggest you spend some more time trying to clarify them through self-criticism and research rather than expecting others to do that for you. It's less painful that way.

  • Comment number 37.

    #31 The Gang of On

    This is from my site 14th October



    McCain and Obama genuinely like each other, they were co-sponsors of the Climate Change Stewardship and Innovation Act, along with Lieberman.

    I could see Obama winning and McCain joining his administration. Which I wrote about.

    Colin Powell got the jump on me, It is possible to see the moderates in the Republican party moving to the Democrats.

    You might get a more extreme Republican Party or it could destroy itself like the Conservatives here did. With years in weak exile. Or become more moderate.

    I think there is a shift in US politics, but the thesis always seems to throw up the antithesis.

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