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For new MPs, that first moment when they take their seat in the Commons chamber is unforgettable. But for many, this time round, there is a large, ugly fly buzzing loudly in the ointment. Their seat may soon be abolished, and they could end up pitted against their neighbours in a battle for personal survival. The reason is the Coalition government's commitment to reduce the number of MPs by 10%, in time for the next election. It's right there in the , under Political Reform.

"We will bring forward a Referendum Bill on electoral reform, which includes provision for the introduction of the Alternative Vote in the event of a positive result in the referendum, as well as for the creation of fewer and more equal sized constituencies." (My italics.)

I promise you, they're already worrying about this...

You can get a glimpse of what the government might intend from an unsuccessful amendment the Conservatives put to the , during the last Parliament.

The key section read:

"The electorate of any constituency -
*shall be as near the electoral quota as is practicable, and all other special geographical considerations, including in particular the size, shape and accessibility of a constituency, shall be subordinate to achieving this aim,

*and shall in any case be no greater than 103.5%. and no less than 96.5% of the electoral quota, except where this makes it impossible to meet the provisions of clause 2 of this schedule."

The electoral quota is the magic number reached by dividing the total number of voters in the UK by the number of constituencies - which, if reduced by 10% would require the new seats to have electorates very close to the 81,000 mark.

Out would go the rule against constituencies crossing county and London Borough boundaries and the special protection for Orkney and Shetland, which prevents that constituency becoming a small part of a mainland seat. Part of the Isle of Wight might be attached to a mainland seat across the Solent, so might Anglesey (Yns Mon). All of the above can be expected to cause considerable local discontent.

And since the number of voters would become the key determinant in drawing constituency boundaries, the would have to get into the business of predicting populations, and projecting the effect, for example, of big new housing developments and the like. Those calculations will have to be made in good time for the next election - so the Commission will have to work flat out, and produce a new electoral map in something like 18 months, which means a Bill will have to be put before Parliament pretty soon.

Meanwhile, imagine the infighting between MPs from all parties, to ensure they still have a seat when the music stops and the redistribution is completed. What may have looked like a good proposal to streamline democracy and cut costs could become a party management nightmare.

But things become even more interesting when the redistribution is considered in tandem with the Coalition's pledge to "speed up" the implementation of individual voter registration (IVR), contained in the 2009 Political Parties and Elections Act. The original intention was to make a careful, staged transition from the current system in which head of households are responsible for informing the local Electoral Registration Office who under their roof is entitled to vote.

The PPE Act sets out a measured timetable for switching to individual voter registration - under which every voter fills out a form for themselves - by 2015. The main reason for this is rising concern about voting fraud, particularly through the postal vote system, where I'm told there is a bit of a smell over a number of constituencies. (I understand that there is now pressure for new rules requiring people applying for postal votes to supply a signature and date of birth matching those on their IVR form).

The implementation timetable is measured because of worries that IVR could knock millions of people off the electoral register: the young, the poor, the heavily indebted - who're trying to stay off the official radar so the bailiffs can't find them - and the kind of people who just don't fill out forms. At the moment the change would ultimately be dependent on a recommendation from the Electoral Commission in 2014 which would have to report to Parliament about the impact on voter numbers and other issues. Speeding the process up may require new legislation.

This matters for Commons seats because if constituencies are to be constructed strictly according to the number of voters, it would be nice if the count was accurate. And even before IVR, thewho do not appear on any electoral register - again, mainly poorer, younger, mobile and ethnic minority populations. They tend to live in urban areas, which helps explain why inner city seats often have smaller electorates, despite Census findings showing bigger populations. (Another factor may be large numbers of EU citizens who are not eligible to vote in Britain.)

Redrawing boundaries on the basis of a simple - some say crude - mathematical formula could distort the electoral map because it will not take account of these missing voters - and that position will be worsened if it takes place alongside the roll-out of IVR, because the experience in Northern Ireland suggests that process will knock more people off the register - and not just the dodgy "phantom voters" created to stuff ballot boxes.

Maybe the boundary changes would have to be implemented before IVR begins to affect voter numbers. Certainly the whole boundary exercise will have to be carried through at warp speed. We shall see. But the implications for democracy could be huge...just remember the outrage on election night, when it emerged that hundreds of people queuing outside were denied their vote, when the polling stations shut their doors at 10pm sharp. This could be a far bigger deal.

Oh, and just to add to the fun, there are the implications for Northern Ireland, where the Good Friday Agreement mandates that six members of the Assembly are returned for each of the 18 Westminster constituencies. If they go down to 12 seats, the 1998 Northern Ireland Act will have to be amended to provide for nine members to be elected from each - and changing the hard-won devolution settlement is never simple.

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