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A prediction

Mark D'Arcy | 12:11 UK time, Tuesday, 18 May 2010

John BercowLet me stick my neck out a little. There seems to be no appetite to defenestrate Mr .

His long-time critics had been talking up the prospect of blocking his re-election, and thereby launching a new election tomorrow. But having spent much of the morning taking the temperature, it seems that only a small group of Bercow-sceptics will shout "No" when the moment comes.

Even some critics of Mr Speaker's waspish put-downs of rowdy MPs have been impressed by his determined speeding up of Commons business. "Every Speaker since I've been here has promised to move things faster, and most have turned out to be paper tigers," one senior Tory backbencher told me. "But he has stopped the bores droning on and on, and so more backbenchers get the chance to put questions or speak in debates."

Since the proposal to have a secret ballot if the re-election of the Speaker was opposed was, mysteriously, not put to the Commons at the fag end of the last Parliament, any MP wishing to remove Mr Bercow would have to openly vote against him - and newcomers and ministers alike will be reluctant to do that.

So my guess is that a modest number of opponents will force a vote, and Mr Speaker will return to the Chair with a vast majority. There's just no groundswell for change.

UPDATE: In the end there wasn't even a vote. The Conservative Nadine Dorries did lead a few shouts of "No", but the Father of the House, the Tory veteran Sir Peter Tapsell, insisted that the "Ayes have it..." and there was no division. Mr Bercow is back in the Chair.

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