Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ

You don't have to be a conspiracy theorist or signed up to the grievance school of Welsh politics, although it certainly helps, to notice that the Scots seem to have got rather more of what they wanted from the coalition deal than the Welsh.

The Scots have the promise of a new law to implement a change in the way the Scottish Parliament is funded - it will have to raise more of its own cash. The Welsh get an undated commitment to a referendum on the National Assembly's powers.

I have struggled to find any reference to the Assembly referendum in the Welsh Liberal Democrat manifesto for the 2010 general election, although it does commit the party to giving the Assembly law-making powers.

The party's leader, Kirsty Williams, and her deputy, Roger Williams (no relation) have always argued for a referendum as soon as possible with this autumn mentioned as a preferred date.

So why not put that in the coalition agreement? They could argue that the referendum date is not the UK Government's to choose, although it clearly has rather a large say.

Perhaps the Lib Dem demand got lost in the negotiating process as, I understand, did their suggestion that St David's Day become a bank holiday.

This foundered, apparently, due to the fact that in Scotland St Andrew's Day is designated a public holiday although employers are not required to recognise it as one.

I'm old enough to remember the days when the Conservatives used this policy as an example of their own commitment to all things Welsh, although the Tory side showed little enthusiasm for the cause during coalition talks.

Welsh Lib Dems will have to be satisfied with a vague promise of jam tomorrow on changing the formula that decides more than half of public spending in Wales.

"At this time," says the coalition agreement, "the priority must be to reduce the deficit and therefore any change to the system must await the stabilisation of the public finances. Depending on the outcome of the forthcoming referendum, we will establish a process similar to the Calman Commission for the Welsh Assembly."

So two commissions for the price of one then - to follow the Holtham Commission that delivered what its sponsors, the Labour/Plaid Cymru Welsh Assembly Government, hoped.

Cast your mind back to February - three months ago - when the then Labour Government refused to reform the Barnett formula.

This is what Roger Williams said then: "I am simply appalled at the Government's point-blank refusal to reform the funding system so that Wales gets its fair share. How can they possibly claim to be working for Welsh people while they consistently ignore expert advice on how the Barnett Formula is harming Wales?

"Instead of real reform the Government is content to tinker round the edges, assessing trends in spending rather than actually doing something by acting. With each year changes are delayed Wales is losing out on more and more vital investment that could go towards changing the lives of people up and down Wales.

"I want to see a fundamental overhaul of the Barnett Formula so that the Welsh Assembly Government has the money to provide services on an equal footing to England. The Government should stop treating Welsh people like second class citizens, stop fiddling and move forward with reform on this totally inadequate system."

No news yet on whether Roger Williams is appalled by his own Government's failure to change the Barnett formula or if he thinks the Con/Lib coalition is treating Wales like "second class citizens".

UPDATE: Roger Williams says: "This deal will be very good for Wales, and for Plaid Cymru to knock the real progress we are making on bringing fairer funding to Wales, through a Calman-style commission from the Treasury that will look at a whole range of options including tax variation, smacks of opportunism.

"In an ideal world we would introduce fair funding straight away, but we still have some work to do, and a Treasury review is exactly the kind of step that Plaid Cymru should be welcoming.

"Everyone knows that when you're in coalition, compromises have to be made."

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It seems only last month, it was only last month, when Cheryl Gillan would roll her eyes in response to any journalist brave enough to raise constitutional issues with her.

These - the timing of referendums etc - were not the issues, she argued, that bothered most voters. Similarly, her predecessor, Peter Hain, used to argue that the pubs of Wales were not full of drinkers contemplating their constitutional navels.

They speak of little else in my local, and tonight will be little different. This is what David Cameron told the House of Commons this afternoon: "What we're going to do is allow the referendum to go ahead that was actually rather held up by the last government, so yes, a date will be named for that referendum and I believe it should be held next year and I believe there should be a free and open debate in Wales for that to happen."

Previously, as they say in all the best soap operas, the coalition government at this end of the M4 (Westminster) had merely suggested the coalition Assembly Government's preferred date of October might be a bit tight.

Speaking after Mr Cameron let the cat out of the bag, his Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan told us that, unsurprisingly, she agreed with the PM. She read out a long list of the hurdles a referendum would have to overcome before it could be called without risk of legal challenge.

This included 10 weeks to consult on the question, and 10 weeks for the referendum campaign - "you do the maths".

She promised to communicate her views to the First Minister, Carwyn Jones, but it appears we got there first.

A spokesman said: "We are disappointed about the issue of timing, as we understood the Electoral Commission could amend its timetable to accommodate a referendum this autumn.

"We are also dismayed to have been told of this announcement via the media and not through the formal channels of government.

"Indeed, we are surprised this announcement was made before we had received any communication from the Secretary of State.

"When we correspond with the Secretary of State, we ensure she has received the letter before Assembly Members are made aware of its contents."

It seems only last week, it was only last week that the Prime Minister, visiting the Welsh Assembly, promised to respect its wishes. His respect agenda's honeymoon seems to have ended rather abruptly.

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Readers of today's Western Mail could be forgiven for assuming that Wales has been singled out for public spending cuts.

Headlines such as and Wales to suffer the brunt of cuts as London reveals where the axe will fall may have given the impression that the nation is being targeted by the new coalition government at Westminster.

But is it true? The Treasury's own figures suggest cuts in the Welsh Assembly Government's budget are less than many Whitehall departments.

This is the Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ analysis of the Treasury figures.

Chancellor's Departments**: 9.8% (budget Β£4.6bn)
Communities and Local Government 7.2% (budget Β£10.8bn)
Department for Work and Pensions: 5.6% (budget Β£9.6bn)
Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs: 4.9% (budget Β£3.3bn)
Transport: 4.6% (budget Β£14.7bn)
Business, Innovation and Skills: 3.8% (budget Β£22bn)
Department for Culture, Media and Sport: 3.8% (budget Β£2.3bn)
Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ Office: 3.5% (budget Β£10.6bn)
Ministry of Justice: 3.2% (budget Β£10.1bn)
Cabinet Office: 2.8% (budget Β£2.8bn)
Law Officers' Department: 2.6% (budget Β£0.7bn)
Department for Energy and Climate Change: 2.6% (budget Β£3.2bn)
Foreign and Commonwealth Office: 2.3% (budget Β£2.4bn)
CLG Local Government 1.5% (budget Β£26.4bn)
Devolved Administrations: 1.2% (budget Β£56.2bn: Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland Executive, Northern Ireland Office)
Education 1.1% (budget Β£58.2bn)

The FT has its own version

The Assembly Government controls around two thirds of public spending in Wales. There are of course other cuts affecting Wales - S4C's budget will be reduced by two per cent. A recruitment freeze means retiring civil servants won't be replaced.

But the suggestion that Wales is "hit hardest" by initial cuts averaging around one per cent or "suffering the brunt of cuts" will be news to those living in the rest of the UK.

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I bring you news of the "respect agenda" as trailed by during his tour of the UK's capital cities.

The was apparently rather impressed with one aspect of his visit to Cardiff above all others - the presiding officer's suit.

The immaculately turned-out was, according to the PM, wearing one of the sharpest suits he'd seen. Respect indeed.

Mr Cameron stopped short of asking the Plaid Cymru AM for the name of his tailor, but he was keen to tell Tory backbenchers of his discovery at a soiree in No 10.

He was so taken with the cut of his garment, if not the cut of his jib, that he had a little local difficulty pronouncing Lord E-T's first name.

As an MP, Dr Elis Thomas, as he then was, was always smartly turned out. Indeed, in the run-up to his Commons retirement in 1992, I speculated that his good humour was down to the fact that he was the only MP with a demob-suit made by Giorgio Armani.

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"If spending is cut too soon, it would undermine the much-needed recovery and cost jobs."

Well, to be fair the did leave it almost a fortnight before signing off today's announced by the coalition government at Westminster.

A lot has changed since the party's manifesto, which includes the above quotation, first appeared on the bookshelves.

Today's cuts mean a reduction of Β£162.5m in the Welsh Assembly Government's budget for this year. Our man with the anorak and the abacus says that's a 1.03% cut in its Β£15.7bn budget.

It could have been tighter. The overall reduction would have been Β£187m, but for more than Β£24m in cash generated from Whitehall spending elsewhere. That won't stop opposition politicians - and devolved governments - from using the higher figure, the one that makes Wales look more hard done by.

Is a one per cent cut a lot? say Wales is disproportionately losing out, with a percentage cut above the overall spending reduction. Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ Analysis and Research suggest the devolved administrations are losing less than most Whitehall departments.

Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan says the cuts are fair and proportionate. Peter Hain, her Labour shadow, says they are the first salvo in a fusillade of cuts. (Labour too would have cut spending, although not as quickly.)

Assembly Government Budget Minister Jane Hutt warned: "We are already relatively efficient compared to Whitehall - for example, Wales has already led the way again in the UK by scrapping the major Welsh quangos.

"So the scope for administrative savings in Wales is simply not the same as it
is in England."

It's fair to say not everyone would accept that but political parties do manage to swap roles effortlessly between government and opposition. It can only be a matter of time before the Tories accuse Labour of talking Wales down.

Labour will doubtless blame the Tories for rising unemployment, something the Tories will doubtless put down to the global economy. It's what politicians do.

Opposition politicians at Westminster and government politicians in Cardiff have criticised the scrapping of the child trust fund, to which the has been adding its own top-up.

The cuts in Wales will not only be felt inside the Assembly Government. Wales has more than 35,000 civil servants, 80 per cent of whom work for the UK Government and its agencies. Most now face a recruitment and pay freeze.

Things could be worse. In Ireland, often held up as a role model for Wales, public servants have faced .

In the next few months, Britain faces an emergency Budget and a comprehensive spending review.

Twelve months hence, we may be looking back with nostalgia at those carefree days when budgets were cut by just a penny in the pound. No-one is humming Things Can Only Get Better just yet.

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Just when thought it couldn't get any worse... he's got a Tory MP for his new next-door neighbour.

Mr Brown didn't always get on with his neighbours during his time in Downing Street, particularly when he was Chancellor and Tony and Cherie Blair lived next door.

Now it appears that when he moves into his new home in Westminster, he'll have Cardiff North MP next door should he run out of milk of an evening.

Mr Evans is one of five parliamentary retreads - MPs returning to Westminster some years after their parliamentary careers were rudely interrupted by the electorate.

Some things, he says, haven't changed. New MPs have to wait weeks for offices and are currently hot-desking in disused committee rooms or squatting in veteran MPs' offices.

Mr Evans has been operating out of the coffee shop in Portcullis House, the Β£250m office block built while he was between constituencies. Portcullis House appears to have the only decent wi-fi signal in that part of Westminster, allowing MPs to use their new laptops and discover how many hundreds of e-mails they have awaiting them.

New MPs are not short of advice. They are given leaflets on everything from taking the oath - you can't be paid until you've done that - to how to claim expenses.

MPs can take the oath in Welsh but must take it in English first. There's a Welsh Bible for MPs to swear on, should they wish.

There is also plenty of advice available on parliamentary language. MPs usually call members of the same party "honourable friends".

So will now embrace as "honourable friends" and vice versa?

"The best I can manage is honourable colleague," sniffs one Tory MP.

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The agreement between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats is out, and you can read it .

Nick Clegg and David Cameron have just returned inside Number 10 after staging their first in the Downing Street garden.

Political anoraks will now be poring through the detail of the document. It confirms that the next general election should be held on the first Thursday in 2015 - the same day Wales and Scotland goes to the polls.

It supports a referendum on further devolution to Wales and talks about creating "fewer and smaller constituencies". The Lib Dems have previously suggested that the 40 Welsh seats be cut to 28 if the Welsh referendum agrees to further devolution. I wonder if Liberal Democrats in mid Wales will go for that.

There will be a commission on the "West Lothian Question" rather than the immediate introduction of English votes for English laws.

I can't see any reference to the way funding for the devolved adminstrations is decided, despite grumblings from both parties about the Barnett formula.

There's no obvious reference to merging the Wales and Scotland Offices, which has been Liberal Democrat policy.

Indeed, as a programme for UK government there's only one reference to Wales in the document, as others may point out before close of play.

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Pencil the date in your diary. The next general election will be held on the first Thursday of May 2015.

What do you mean, you're busy that day? The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have agreed on fixed term parliaments as part of their coalition deal.

So the next general election date is already known, provided the coalition survives that long. Some of you may be double booked - it looks as if the next UK general election will be held on the day Wales and Scotland go to the polls to elect AMs and MSPs.

This will have several likely effects. The main parties will have to find 100 candidates each. Turn-out will rise, which will probably benefit UK-wide parties. The campaign will be confusing for many voters. Will prime ministerial debates take place during campaigns for Cardiff Bay and Edinburgh? I imagine Alex Salmond has already reached for his writing paper.

Next year's Assembly elections are a more pressing engagement for all the parties, four of whom will enter the campaign with a stake in government somewhere. All can take the credit for successes and blame each other for failures.

Several newspapers reported during the campaign how the Conservatives expected to become the most unpopular government in history within months. The Bank of England Governor Mervyn King has suggested the spending cuts required will be so painful the winning party(ies) could be out of power for a generation.

Perhaps 2010 was a good election to lose. Immediate spending cuts, which the Lib Dems have apparently signed up to, may be necessary to cut the deficit but they're unlikely to win votes next May. There's plenty of scope for political parties seeking to play the grievance card in the Assembly election campaign.

Little wonder perhaps that there are some in Labour and Plaid circles in Cardiff Bay who are privately relieved by the outcome of the coalition negotiations at Westminster.

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One of the signs of ageing is that Prime Ministers start looking younger. For the first time in my life I'm older than the PM - and his deputy too.

And after the last week, I feel a lot older too. It's a great privilege to be a witness to history - I was present last night at what was Britain's first "Tories Out" demo in 13 years.

It took place outside the gates of Downing Street, as the crowds gathered to see the new Prime Minister arrive.

The crowds included a handful bearing Vote Labour posters and some newly-elected Tory MPs who had come to cheer their new Prime Minister.

Other arrivals were also warmy greeted - Nick Robinson's departure from Downing Street got a mixture of cheers and good-natured jeers. Well, he is better known than half the Government.

I did make it inside Downing Street for a special Radio Wales programme - you can see the view from our gantry above. My picture was taken as the Camerons left for the 10pm meeting of Tory MPs.

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Breaking news from Buckingham Palace, where the Queen is facing rather a busy week.

Eagle-eyed royal watchers will have spotted a man resembling Peter Hain entering the palace just before 5pm.

He was there not to tender his seal of office or to launch a coup but to attend a meeting of the .

It didn't last very long, but it did have implications for Wales. The National Assembly for Wales (Legislative Competence) (Agriculture and Rural Development) Order 2008 (relating to the Welsh Red Meat Industry) has now received Royal assent.

Her Majesty may have a couple more politician visitors during the next 24 hours.

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Breakfast time on Abingdon Green, which once again hosted Good Morning Wales from 6am.

You may be wondering why Lembit Opik's distinctive tones are still being heard on your wireless almost a week after the voters of Montgomeryshire kicked him out.

The answer is that the have been refusing to put forward MPs to represent the party during the coalition negotiations.

The media pursuit of the Labour leadership candidates has yet to produce a declaration.

Foreign Secretary David Miliband said "none of the other candidates" would be declaring until the coalition negotiations are complete. He's definitely standing then.

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It takes a Scottish politician whose past jobs include running hospitals and prisons in England to point out the risk of an English backlash from the proposed traffic light coalition.

John Reid, for it is he, believes it would mean mutually assured destruction for Labour and the Liberal Democrats:

"They would have to cobble together an alliance of sorts with Scottish nationalists and people from Northern Ireland; all of whom would demand that the price of their support was that they would not have the same cuts imposed upon them as the English would.

"If we now decide that we're going to cock a snook at the electorate, or look that way, we will suffer most grievously in the future,"

The parliamentary arithmetic means that a traffic light coalition - under a prime minister still to be chosen by Labour - would require a minimum of four parties to deliver a bare majority, and more to deliver a guaranteed stable one.

Perhaps the English wouldn't notice, as the sums involved are relatively small. Mind you, Β£200m here (for Northern Ireland), Β£300m there (Wales) and you soon start talking big money.

Alternatively, they might notice, as the Welsh and Scots did, a democratic deficit when a party rejected by the voters of one country continues to rule. The Conservatives have 297 of the 597 seats in England, 106 more than Labour - and more than 60 seats more than all other parties in England combined.

Today's will fuel English resentment by raising the prospect of them being "soaked" to meet Welsh and Scottish demands.

The SDLP may vote with Labour, as they have in the past, and Sinn Fein will not take up their seats, but any government has an awkward squad that habitually votes against the party whip.

On past form, there will be enough Labour backbenchers who oppose the inevitable spending cuts to require a bigger parliamentary majority as a cushion. Perhaps the threat of a Tory government would keep them in line.

John Major's Conservative Government started with a majority of more than 20, and look what happened to that - one reason why David Cameron is seeking a coalition with the Liberal Democrats rather than trying to govern alone.

The Tories say they have made their "final offer" to the Lib Dems, whose MPs seem reluctant to accept it. There is no deadline attached to the offer apparently, but patience is wearing thin on the Tory Right, which appears to be demanding its own concessions - Cabinet jobs for its favourites.

No rush then, and the Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes has just talked of a deal "this working week": good news for those candidates for the Labour leadership election itching to launch their own campaigns.

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It was 11 o'clock of a weekday morning in the mid 1980s. The doors to El Vino's, a watering hole favoured by Fleet Street's finest, had just opened.

The legendary political columnist turned to the green student and asked a simple question: "Do you like champagne, David?"

Well, yes, but not usually before elevenses. I was lucky enough to spend a couple of weeks shadowing Alan Watkins, then of The Observer.

He had been at Amman Valley Grammar School with my father and, thirty years later, was kind enough to help a would-be political hack get a glimpse of his world - in between his lunch engagements with leading politicians of the day.

Alan Watkins died at the weekend, shortly after the election that no-one won, sadly denying his readers his analysis of the current political stalemate (although he would have remembered a historical parallel somewhere).

The tributes from the party leaders were warm and genuine. You can read them .

His was a unique style. He was credited with creating several political phrases common today such as "young fogeys", "the men in suits" and "chattering classes". The Independent on Sunday, where he wrote until recently, said he turned the political column into a literary art form.

Precise about language, he never forgot the difference between an event that was ironic and an event that was merely curious. He wrote his columns by hand with a fountain pen.

Best known as a political essayist, he was also a passionate rugby fan. Gareth Edwards was among those paying tribute

There is no other voice like his left in political commentary today.

He also paid for the champagne.

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A glimpse of the 24-hour circus that is Abingdon Green opposite the Palace of Westminster.

The man with the mic is Oliver Hides, who has co-presented Good Morning Wales and Good Evening Wales from the Green today.

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• - What's this?

and the may not have enjoyed the best of election nights but their dream scenario of a hung Parliament has come true.

And the SNP leader Alex Salmond has been quick to accept - he says on behalf of both parties - the offer of civil service talks to help construct "an alternative government scenario".

Gordon Brown described the option as "support on request to parties engaged in discussions on the formation of government."

Despite disappointing results in Wales and Scotland, the SNP leader said a hung parliament had dealt the two parties "a mighty hand".

Mr Salmond also ruled out doing a deal with the Conservatives. Jeremy Paxman: "There's no possibility of you doing a deal with the Conservatives, given they have such minimal support there, is there?"

Alex Salmond: "Well if you want a straight answer to the question I think you're absolutely right."

He told Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ News:

"Fate seems to have dealt us a mighty hand between ourselves and Plaid Cymru. There would have to be some involvement of the SNP and Plaid Cymru if you were to construct an alternative government scenario, so for that reason I'm accepting the offer of the Prime Minister on behalf of the SNP and Plaid Cymru to have the civil service back-up to have discussions to see what the possibilities are in terms of defending the interests of Scotland and Wales in this parliamentary situation."

A senior Plaid Cymru source said: "Discussions need to take place, both internally and between parties, Plaid will not be providing a running commentary on this".

UPDATE 1330: Plaid Cymru's parliamentary leader, Elfyn Llwyd tells Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ Wales: "We have kept all our options open... we are not ruling anything in or out."

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You wait decades to join one coalition and then two come along at once.

Peter Hain has called for a Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition government that could include a "wider arrangement" taking in and the .

Mr Hain said the coalition itself would be formed between and the but the nationalists could be part of a deal to deliver stable government.

Asked what happens next after the inconclusive election result, he said: "I remain Secretary of State for Wales and the Prime Minister remains Prime Minister so long as there's no alternative government formed.

"I would like to see a partnership government. There's clearly a majority in parliament to drive through the fundamental political reforms that are needed to rebuild trust between voters and politicians and also to make sure that the economic recovery is sustained and that we don't have the deep and savage cuts that the planned.

"Now Labour and the Liberal Democrats agree on all of that and I suspect others, including possibly nationalists and independents would do as well so it will be a clear opportunity to form a partnership progressive government rather than a reactionary Tory one."

Not that he's suggesting Plaid Cymru would be offered ministerial posts at Westminster - not that they would take them.

He added: "The partnership government needs to be formed between Labour and the Liberal Democrats - we agree on a wide agenda which the Tories are implacably opposed to.

"Other parties could be part of a wider arrangement to make sure there's a stable government with a sufficiently clear majority to be able to carry these policies through and for Britain over a period of four years to be governed both effectively and with stability."

I'm not sure that the maths of any wider arrangement will add up to "a sufficiently clear majority" even with nationalist support but it's an intriguing thought.

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The Conservatives used to boast, or at least dream, of sending a rugby team of MPs from Wales to Westminster.

They failed to achieve that this time, although when you add the Welsh candidates elected across the border they will have almost enough for a football XI.

Stuart Andrew, the new MP for Pudsey, grew up on Anglesey; Karen Lumley, who ousted Jacqui Smith from Redditch, won her political spurs north-east Wales; and Robert Buckland, the new MP for Swindon South, is a Llanelli boy.

I believe Mr Andrew may be the first Welsh-speaking Yorkshire MP, although that may depend on how you rate William Hague's linguistic performance.

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• - What's this?

With just four seats left to declare, the Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ is forecasting that the eventual result in Wales will be:

LAB 26 Seats -3
CON 8 Seats +5
LIB DEM 3 Seats -1
PC 3 Seats No change
OTHERS 0 Seats - 1

The predicted shares of the vote (in percentages) are:

LAB 36 -7
CON 26 +5
LIB DEM 20 +2
PC 11 -2
OTHERS 7 +2

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The spin has arrived before the results.

A Welsh Labour source says a predicted one per cent swing to Labour in Wales would be "a big personal achievement" for Peter Hain.

A silver lining, perhaps. With only three results declared, the Conservatives say they could govern with 305 votes, the revised Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ/Sky/ITV exit poll prediction.

They're claiming this is Labour's worst result since 1931 and that Gordon Brown has lost any claim to continue in office.

Not so, say Labour figures such as Peter Hain, who are claiming a "progressive majority" by adding Lib Dem votes to their own.

"If there is a progressive majority in parliament... then I think we have an obligation to try to make that work".

No hard news from the Lib Dems yet, but they can expect to hear "I agree with Nick" from (outgoing?) Labour Ministers on issues such as voting reform during the next 24 hours.

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Sorry to interrupt your party but this courtesy of the Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ should help it go with a swing.

The Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ/ITV/Sky exit polls suggests the Conservatives will win 307 seats, Labour 255, the Liberal Democrats 59 and others 29.

NOP and Mori interviewed 17,607 voters in 130 polling locations.

The Conservatives would fall 19 seats short of an overall majority.

The Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ analysis suggests that the poll anticipates that the Labour Party has been more successful at retaining its vote in seats in Scotland and Wales, in those with a relatively large ethnic minority population, and in places where the incumbent Labour MP is standing again.

It also anticipates that the Lib Dems will perform better in England than in either Scotland or Wales.

This though, as the politicians will tell you, is not the poll that counts. I've yet to see projected shares of the vote, which could be significant.

In 2005, the exit poll got the percentages bang on, but the seat projections were slightly out.

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• - What's this?

If I ever hear the phrase "on the doorstep" again, it will be too soon.

One Welsh Liberal Democrat threw in the phrase in a sentence that also reminded us which was the only poll that counts. At least it gave me a full house at election bingo.

Election days are usually exciting, but some of the longest months of my life have been spent on the campaign trail.

Everyone remembers the "Portillo moment" from Tony Blair's first landslide. Fewer people remember the campaign itself, which was more of a victory procession.

Whatever the result, this campaign has been rather more memorable, thanks to, among others, Gillian Duffy, Nick Clegg, Eurfyl ap Gwilym and the televised debates.

For all the talk of an digital election dominated by blogs and tweets, this has been a campaign where TV had the greatest influence, from Nick Clegg's rise to Gordon Brown's humiliation.

In Wales, the parliamentary leaders have enjoyed a lower profile than last time. Three of the four main parties have chosen to use their Welsh leaders rather than their Westminster ones. Would-be Secretaries of State for Wales have enjoyed less scrutiny than they otherwise might.

There were gaps in the manifestoes, and not just on the key question of how to get Britain out of the red. Conservative plans to reform the Barnett formula and make St David's Day failed to make the party's manifesto.

Labour, whose campaign talked more about the Conservatives than their own plans in Wales, said they would cut lesser-priority programmes to cut the deficit, but have not said which ones.

Plaid Cymru's manifesto was a very readable brochure but light on detail in some areas. The Welsh Liberal Democrat manifesto was notable for airbrushing out the party's candidate to be Secretary of State for Wales - and for its use of fake policemen.

The campaign is almost over. I'm about to be acquainted with my own doorstep.

The polls suggest, just hours before the polling station opens, more of us than ever before at this stage have yet to decide how to vote.

If the polls are right, on Friday it may even be difficult to work out who has won, although possibly easier to see who has lost.

With all the talk of coalitions, pacts and minority government, perhaps it would be easier to settle it via the Duckworth-Lewis method.

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Cheryl Gillan's absence from the Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ's Wales Leaders Debate has fuelled about her future should David Cameron win power tomorrow.

Ms Gillan took part in Sky News and ITV Wales debates but opted to attend a campaign event with her party leader in North Wales rather than attend the Pontardawe hustings.
Her seat was taken by the Tories' leader in the Welsh assembly, Nick Bourne.

"She was subbed," insisted a very senior Welsh Labour figure. He then conspiratorially suggested that her job in government would go to Jonathan Evans, the former Welsh Office Minister standing in .

This may be a conspiracy theory but it reveals two points about Welsh Labour thinking - they don't expect to hold Cardiff North or hold on to power.

One change the Tories have promised, if not in their manifesto, is to change the name of the Wales Office to a "less colonial" Welsh Office. Given recent Conservative criticism of spending on new logos, they would presumably allow the stationery to run out before ordering new supplies at the taxpayers' expense.

Perhaps they are planning to change some job titles too, judging by the grade inflation used on their website. The Conservatives say David Jones is their

The job of "Deputy Secretary of State for Wales" doesn't exist - yet. David Jones shadows the less grand-sounding Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Wales.

Given that role's Whitehall acronym - PUSS - you can sort of understand why an ambitious politician would be keen to change the public profile.

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I blame Nick Clegg. Each of the panellists in tonight's Welsh Leaders' Debate opted to stare down the camera into the nation's living rooms in the manner of the Lib Dem leader.

It was a bit disconcerting for those of us who had not dressed for the occasion. Peter Hain, Kirsty Williams, Nick Bourne and Ieuan Wyn Jones also followed the Clegg line in presuming themselves to be on first name terms with their questioner.

Peter (see, it's catching) was first to deliver his opening statement, taking a full 10 seconds before reminding viewers of the perils of a Conservative government as he saw them - he may have mentioned bus passes and winter fuel payments.

Peter, Ieuan, Nick and Kirsty all relied on notes to a greater or lesser degree to make their opening statement - Cleggmania's influence has its limits. No-one said: "I agree with Nick (Bourne)".

Anecdotes were fewer than in the prime ministerial debates. Over on Twitter, Daran Hill wondered which would be the first to say something like "last week I met a black man..."

Ieuan highlighted the three "based London parties" (sic), Peter accused the Tories of "literally pulling the rug" under the economy.

Over on , Plaid's Bethan Jenkins and Labour's Alun Davies had an entertaining spat about how only Peter of the four is standing on Thursday and whether Plaid were hiding their parliamentary leader, Elfyn Llwyd. Three of the four panellists are Welsh assembly members.

Welsh Labour accused the Tories of "benching" Cheryl Gillan. Had the shadow Welsh Secretary been locked in a cupboard after her performance on previous Welsh debates?

The truth was that she had opted to visit North Wales with David Cameron rather than speak to voters through the debate in Pontardawe.

"This isn't a beauty contest", said Kirsty - who had previously defended the absence from its manifesto of the Lib Dem candidate to be Secretary of State for Wales on the grounds that Roger Williams is less photogenic than herself.

Kirsty was ahead on the cliche count, accusing Peter Hain of shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted and the UK Government of taking its eye off the ball. She may also have mentioned the doorstep on which politicians spend so much time.

The panel got through questions on the economy (manufacturing and jobs), post offices, Afghanistan, immigration and preferred coalition partners.

There were few surprising answers, no obvious gaffes. No pensioners were insulted during the making of this programme. They all removed their microphones afterwards.

Unlike the prime ministerial debates, there was no Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ worm, no instant newspaper poll to tell us who had won.The press centre in Pontardawe was not, as far as I could tell, swarming with Ministers and their shadows spinning for their men (and woman).

It looks like we'll have to make our own mind up after all.

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