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An English backlash?

David Cornock | 07:06 UK time, Tuesday, 11 May 2010

John Reid c/o PA and Rebecca Reid

It takes a Scottish politician whose past jobs include running hospitals and prisons in England to point out the risk of an English backlash from the proposed traffic light coalition.

John Reid, for it is he, believes it would mean mutually assured destruction for Labour and the Liberal Democrats:

"They would have to cobble together an alliance of sorts with Scottish nationalists and people from Northern Ireland; all of whom would demand that the price of their support was that they would not have the same cuts imposed upon them as the English would.

"If we now decide that we're going to cock a snook at the electorate, or look that way, we will suffer most grievously in the future,"

The parliamentary arithmetic means that a traffic light coalition - under a prime minister still to be chosen by Labour - would require a minimum of four parties to deliver a bare majority, and more to deliver a guaranteed stable one.

Perhaps the English wouldn't notice, as the sums involved are relatively small. Mind you, Β£200m here (for Northern Ireland), Β£300m there (Wales) and you soon start talking big money.

Alternatively, they might notice, as the Welsh and Scots did, a democratic deficit when a party rejected by the voters of one country continues to rule. The Conservatives have 297 of the 597 seats in England, 106 more than Labour - and more than 60 seats more than all other parties in England combined.

Today's will fuel English resentment by raising the prospect of them being "soaked" to meet Welsh and Scottish demands.

The SDLP may vote with Labour, as they have in the past, and Sinn Fein will not take up their seats, but any government has an awkward squad that habitually votes against the party whip.

On past form, there will be enough Labour backbenchers who oppose the inevitable spending cuts to require a bigger parliamentary majority as a cushion. Perhaps the threat of a Tory government would keep them in line.

John Major's Conservative Government started with a majority of more than 20, and look what happened to that - one reason why David Cameron is seeking a coalition with the Liberal Democrats rather than trying to govern alone.

The Tories say they have made their "final offer" to the Lib Dems, whose MPs seem reluctant to accept it. There is no deadline attached to the offer apparently, but patience is wearing thin on the Tory Right, which appears to be demanding its own concessions - Cabinet jobs for its favourites.

No rush then, and the Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes has just talked of a deal "this working week": good news for those candidates for the Labour leadership election itching to launch their own campaigns.

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