Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ

A national opinion poll in Afghanistan has recorded results dramatically different from a year ago, suggesting that Afghans feel much better about their lives and increasingly confident about the future.

Support for the re-elected President Karzai has rallied, the Taliban remain deeply unpopular, and there has been a softening of attitudes towards foreign troops.

Of those questioned, 70% said they felt Afghanistan was heading in the right direction – up significantly by 30% from 40% last year, and the highest figure since 2005. A similar proportion, 71%, said they expected things to be better a year from now – 20% up on last time, and a new high.

Better economic prospects and living conditions are important factors in explaining these figures. For example, 55% of Afghans now say they have electricity, with 39% saying the supply is good or very good – up from 19% in 2009; 41% percent say job prospects are good or very good – a year ago this figure was 29%. And 59% say they now own a mobile phone – up from 31% from when they were first asked in 2005.

In spite of the protracted and flawed election process, President Karzai emerges well from the survey. Of those questioned, 72% said he was doing a good or excellent job and 60% said his government was doing well. A year ago, these figures were 52% and 48% respectively.

Seventy-eight per cent express confidence in the government's prospects of serving the country well. There's also a 12% increase in approval for the Afghan National Army, with 69% saying it's doing an excellent or good job.

Despite the much improved overall picture, problems remain. A massive 95% say corruption within the police or government is a problem in their area, and 44% say things are worse than they were a year ago.

Only 39% believe last year's election was conducted honestly and 59% think the counting of votes was fraudulent. And many Afghans have yet to be convinced of the virtues of the democratic process. Although most think it could work in Afghanistan, only 32% think it's the best system of government for the country – compared with 43% who favour an Islamic state.

As with previous polls, this one shows scant evidence of any desire for the return of the Taliban. They are increasingly blamed for the violence in the country, and 69% think they pose the greatest danger to its future. Although 30% think they are stronger than a year ago (43% in 2009), 40% think they're weaker (24% in 2009).

Correspondingly, less blame for the violence is now attached to foreign troops, possibly reflecting a new emphasis on avoiding civilian casualties in the fight against the Taliban.

This shifting of blame away from foreign forces and towards the Taliban is one of the key features of the results. More than two-thirds (68%) support the presence of US forces, and 62% support the presence of British and other foreign troops.

Two other striking findings of the poll are that 83% now say it was right for the US to bring down the Taliban in 2001 – an increase of 14% on last time. And only 8% think attacks on foreign troops can be justified – the lowest to date, and down from 25% in 2009.

Nevertheless, there are still misgivings about the presence and performance of foreign troops. Only 38% rate as positive the work of the US in Afghanistan, which is 6% more than last year but well below the peak of 68% in 2005. Ratings of NATO's performance are also low, and have changed little since 2009.

Comparing the figures for Helmand Province, where British troops are concentrated, with the overall findings, it's clear that the situation there is more difficult. Because of the sample size, it is advisable to look for trends from these figures rather than percentages.

By comparison to the national findings, these figures suggest that about half believe the country is going in the right direction (70% nationally). Barely one-in-ten rate security from the Taliban and other armed groups locally as good (45% nationally). And whereas one in ten people nationally believe the Taliban will defeat the Afghan government, in Helmand about one-in-three hold this view.

The poll was commissioned by the Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ, ABC News and ARD of Germany. It was conducted by the US pollsters D-3 Systems. The fieldwork was carried out by the Afghan Centre for Socio-Economic and Opinion Research in Kabul.

Face-to-face interviews were carried out with 1,534 Afghans in all of the country's 34 provinces between 11 and 23 December 2009. The margin of error is +/– 3%.

This is the fifth such Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ/ABC/ARD poll in the country, following the first news-sponsored survey ever conducted in Afghanistan at the end of 2005, a second at the end of 2006 a third at the end of 2007 and a fourth in February 2009.

LZ