Wars and ConflictsΒ permalink
Germany wins WW1 by attacking Russia first
This discussion has been closed.
-
Message 1.Β
Posted by Idamante (U1894562) on Thursday, 8th April 2010
Well, how about it?
Obviously Germany can't conquer Russia but can do enough damage to save their Austrian ally (which is after all their official reason for declaring war) & with a bit of luck on the battlefield may provoke another 1905-style political crisis in Russia.
Meanwhile the French armies throw themselves uselessly against the German defences, lose 1 million plus casualties and France faces its own political crisis.
Britain has no reason to intervene, so no U boat campaign and therefore no US intervention either.
U boats are instead deployed to attack French fleet in the Mediterranean - this weakens French empire, inspiring Italy to join in to grab some extra colonies.
Turkey also joins Germany in order to kick Russia while she's down.Link to this forum: Germany wins WW1 by attacking Russia first
-
Message 2
Posted by Mr Pedant (U2464726) on Sunday, 11th April 2010
I'm inclined to agree. That would have kept Britain out of the war and kept Germany unblockaded.
The main point of a German attack would be to relieve Russian pressure on Austria and allow her to inflict serious defeats on Serbia in 1914. As it was Austria never really recovered from defeats at the hands of Russia and Austria in 1914.
The German attack on Russia would probably cost it very dear, as Russia was I believe very potent in 1914. By the same token French attacks on Alsace-Lorraine would be very costly.
With Serbia out and Austria more resilient Italy and Romania might have stayed out. Perhaps Romania would have joined the Central Powers. I doubt Italy would have attacked France or her colonies for various reasons but you never know.
If Turkey came in without the opportunity of gaining from Britain (she might stay on the fence) then she could concentrate her resources on the Caucuses.
The central powers might then try and hurt Russia more in 1915 while perhaps gaining ground in France through counter-attacks.
In this scenario France could be forced to sue for peace without the need to actually defeat her.
All states underestimated the power of defensive tactics, perhaps if the Central Powers had realised this their best bet for establishing continental dominance would have been to avoid war.Link to this forum: Germany wins WW1 by attacking Russia first
-
Message 3
Posted by hotmousemat (U2388917) on Sunday, 11th April 2010
Hard to assemble a lot of troops in the east and keep them supplied, especially in an offensive; there isn't the same communications network. And in the west there are strategic targets - take them and you are a winner. But a campaign in the east...how do you win that?
Link to this forum: Germany wins WW1 by attacking Russia first
-
Message 4
Posted by PaulRyckier (U1753522) on Monday, 12th April 2010
Re: Message 1.
Idamante,
interesting "What-if". But as I understands it, you suppose an intervention by France, although in real history only Germany declared war to France, but up to all what I read France didn't declare war on Germany. Only later on Austria.
However I found an URL:
(American?)
That shows how careful one has to be, when doing research on the net, even in written sources it is always cautious to cross-examining them with other sources, rather university works. And even university works can lead to a row
as in France about the "Aristote au Mont St-Michèl" (Aristotle at the Mont-Michel) from Goughenheim.
That said, even in the "what-if" it can be that if Germany didn't invade Belgium and made no declaration of war to France, the French public opinion wanted an invasion of Alsace-Lorraine and perhaps accompagnied with a declaration of war from France.
But with the French Third Republic, you never know...it was certainly no Second Empire of Napoleon III...
Kind regards,
Paul.Link to this forum: Germany wins WW1 by attacking Russia first
-
Message 5
Posted by PaulRyckier (U1753522) on Monday, 12th April 2010
Correction of the previous message:
It has to be correctly: "Aristote au Mont Saint-Michel" (Aristotle at Mont Saint-Michel) by Sylvain Gouguenheim.
Cheers, Paul.Link to this forum: Germany wins WW1 by attacking Russia first
-
Message 6
Posted by Idamante (U1894562) on Monday, 12th April 2010
as I understands it, you suppose an intervention by France, although in real history only Germany declared war to France, but up to all what I read France didn't declare war on Germany. Β
I don't remember the sequence of events. But the Franco-Russian Alliance promised mutual military assistance if either country was attacked, besides which the French wanted revenge for 1871 - so there are 2 reasons to think that once Germany & Russia were fighting the French were likely to join in.
I don't think Britain had the same kind of incentive to join in, until Germany attacked Belgium.Link to this forum: Germany wins WW1 by attacking Russia first
-
Message 7
Posted by Mr Pedant (U2464726) on Tuesday, 13th April 2010
As well as Britains involvement being more limited, France would have found the human element of her massive military and industrial contribution unsustainable without the psychological factor of having been invaded.
On the flip side, France would have kept all her industrial areas and if Germany evr did invade Belgium then both Belgium and Britain would have been much better prepared.Link to this forum: Germany wins WW1 by attacking Russia first
-
Message 8
Posted by giraffe47 (U4048491) on Tuesday, 13th April 2010
Even without the invasion of Belgium, I think Britain would probably have been involved.
The Belgian issue was the 'excuse' for war, to enthuse public opinion. Nobody is THAT concerned about alliances, outrage at other's problems, etc, unless they want to be. Politicians will always find an excuse to do what they want (Invade Iraq?) or not do what they don't want. ('Peace In Our Time', 1938?)
Britain's problem was the German Navy, and the only way to solve that problem was get into the war, even more so if Germany was beating France and Russia, and in danger of completely dominating the continent. We always support the 'Little Guy' in the European wars, to try and keep the balance!Link to this forum: Germany wins WW1 by attacking Russia first
-
Message 9
Posted by Idamante (U1894562) on Tuesday, 13th April 2010
But a campaign in the east...how do you win that?Β
Don't forget the Germans did actually win in the East even though they were fighting a war on two fronts
Even without the invasion of Belgium, I think Britain would probably have been involved.
The Belgian issue was the 'excuse' for war, to enthuse public opinion. Β
You may well be right but what if the Germans managed to avoid giving them an excuse?
Instead, Germany lost because she followed a military plan dictated by the generals and totally ignored political realities - a warning of what can happen when the army has too much power in society?Link to this forum: Germany wins WW1 by attacking Russia first
-
Message 10
Posted by PaulRyckier (U1753522) on Friday, 16th April 2010
Re: Message 6.
Idamante,
"the Franco-Russian Alliance" of course you are right. And it was I, who wrote the thread in 2002 for Tas: "Wilhelm II and his road to disaster". And in the years in between mentioned it several times on these boards. Nearly unforgivable for a person as I
And it was the dropping of Bismarck's Reinsurance treaty (RΓΌckversicherungsvertrag) by Wilhelm II, which sparked the Franco-Russian Alliance.
Kind regards and with esteem,
Paul.Link to this forum: Germany wins WW1 by attacking Russia first
-
Message 11
Posted by Allan D (U1791739) on Saturday, 17th April 2010
Germany declared war on both France and Russia within a day of one another at the beginning of August 1914 so the Franco-Russian alliance played no role as each power was attacked separately. The only major powers to declare war on Germany were Great Britain (after the invasion of Belgium) and the USA (in April 1917 after the resumption of unrestricted submarine warfare and the publication of the Zimmerman Telegram)although you might add Japan - in 1914 - and Italy - in 1915. As J.M. Roberts states in his "History of Europe", a quote which I have often used before but which few here seem willing to accept:
"In the last analysis the Great War was made in Berlin."Link to this forum: Germany wins WW1 by attacking Russia first
-
Message 12
Posted by FormerlyOldHermit (U3291242) on Saturday, 17th April 2010
Britain would have gotten into the war even without the Belgian excuse. It was not in Britain's interest to have Germany rampant in Europe, especially with the increasingly erratic Wilhelm II in charge.
Link to this forum: Germany wins WW1 by attacking Russia first
-
Message 13
Posted by PaulRyckier (U1753522) on Sunday, 18th April 2010
Re: Message 11.
Allan,
in message 4 I replied to Idamante's "what-if" that he seemed to suppose that France would assault Germany, but that in real history France didn't declare war on Germany. So if Germany didn't attack France but first Russia as I think to have understood from message 1, then is Idamante right to reply in message 6, that France would have to attack Germany due to the Franco-Russian alliance treaty, from which I gave the content in the URL in message 10.
Kind regards and with esteem,
Paul.Link to this forum: Germany wins WW1 by attacking Russia first
About this Board
The History message boards are now closed. They remain visible as a matter of record but the opportunity to add new comments or open new threads is no longer available. Thank you all for your valued contributions over many years.
or Β to take part in a discussion.
The message board is currently closed for posting.
The message board is closed for posting.
This messageboard is .
Find out more about this board's
Search this Board
Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ iD
Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ navigation
Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ links
Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ Β© 2014 The Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read more.
This page is best viewed in an up-to-date web browser with style sheets (CSS) enabled. While you will be able to view the content of this page in your current browser, you will not be able to get the full visual experience. Please consider upgrading your browser software or enabling style sheets (CSS) if you are able to do so.