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Why did Stalin want to avoid war with Germany?
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Message 1.Β
Posted by RickLeeds (U14124092) on Tuesday, 1st September 2009
I was asked this question on another site. In essence it was, with all the warnings and signs, why did Stalin want to avoid the coming war with Nazi Germany?
My answer, from some research, was that the Soviet army wasn't really ready for that conflict (approx 2/3 the manpower Germany would throw into the conflict, inferior weaponry) and that he felt he would gain more by remaining in alliance with Hitler. However, I haven't found anything that does more than imply this.
Any ideas?Link to this forum: Why did Stalin want to avoid war with Germany?
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Message 2
Posted by Grumpyfred (U2228930) on Tuesday, 1st September 2009
Perhaps even Stalin realised that he had gotten rid of to many of his good officers and needed time. Even so, when told by the British that the Germans were about to attack in 1941, he chose to disbelieve.
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Message 3
Posted by suvorovetz (U12273591) on Tuesday, 1st September 2009
RickLeeds My answer, from some research, was that the Soviet army wasn't really ready for that conflict (approx 2/3 the manpower Germany would throw into the conflict, inferior weaponry) and that he felt he would gain more by remaining in alliance with Hitler. However, I haven't found anything that does more than imply this.Β I'm sorry to tell you that, but you've been deceived by those implications. Not only Stalin did not want to avoid the war with Germany, he had been preparing the war with Germany for at least a decade and he was more than prepared for it, at least he was confident that he was. Perhaps, overconfident - as the events of the fateful summer of 1941 showed.
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Message 4
Posted by Backtothedarkplace (U2955180) on Wednesday, 2nd September 2009
Theres a lot of questions regarding this. What I would say is that the Russian equipment wasnt always inferior. They had at least two tanks that were superior to anything the Germans had The T34 and the KV1 and the KV2 should probably be given an honourable mention.
The tactics and comms equipment is lacking, all of them would have benifited from a bit more time fettling before production, gear boxes and transmissions were hooky. But when they were working and fueled they were a generation in advance of the German PZKW1 and 2 and the 38t and superior to the Pzkw 3 and 4 that german armoured divisions were equipped with.Link to this forum: Why did Stalin want to avoid war with Germany?
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Message 5
Posted by MattJ18 (U13798409) on Wednesday, 2nd September 2009
Not a military reason this (although I agree that Stalin must have known in his heart of hearts that the Russian army was in no fit state to fight Germany) but I don't think that Stalin had a real reason to want to fight Hitler. If you think about it Stalinist Russia generally operated within its own sphere of influence and didn't particularly seek to spread its borders beyond those which were 'traditionally' Russia. Socialism in one country and all that. Finland, Poland and the Baltic states were seen as historically part of Russia. Germany wasn't.
Just an idea anyway...Link to this forum: Why did Stalin want to avoid war with Germany?
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Message 6
Posted by Mike Alexander (U1706714) on Wednesday, 2nd September 2009
Not an area I know much about, but wouldn't the relative ineffectiveness of Soviet support in Spain (versus the German-backed Nationalists) have influenced his thinking?
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Message 7
Posted by poppyanddaisy (U14107848) on Wednesday, 2nd September 2009
Could be down to sheer stupidity - which he was not beyond - in his own paranoid world of intregue - think he was taken in as well
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Message 8
Posted by RickLeeds (U14124092) on Wednesday, 2nd September 2009
I'm not sure USSR WAS prepared for war with Germany. Stalin backed out of conflict with Hitler over Finland. The Winter War had gone badly but Stalin still claimed Finland as a Soviet satellite. Hitler refused to recognise this and in 1940/1 Stalin eased off in his claims. Similarly Stalin was eager to take territory in the Balkans but again avoided conflict with Germany when German troops entered the region. The German ambassador in Moscow told Hitler in early 1941 that Stalin would do anything to avoid conflict with Germany.
The Winter War showed the problems with the Soviet military. Poor leadership in the lower and middle ranks and inflexibility in the upper leadership. Granted this needs to be balanced with the much more successful war with Japan in Outer Mongolia, which was a much larger conflict than the one with Finland. But did the failure in Finland make Stalin doubt his military leaders?
I'm aware that Soviet equipment wasn't always inferior but generally it was. It's air force was significantly larger than the Luftwaffe but Soviet planes were comparatively antiquated. Certainly the T-34 tank was heavier and more powerful than anything Germany had until 1943 but wasn't yet in full production. I'm not sure about artillery. I do know that Stalin's 3rd Five Year Plan had been aimed at strengthening the military, but it was interrupted by Barbarossa.
Stalin had probably been planning for war against Germany eventually (he'd have been stupid not to) but he seemed to be avoiding conflict. He ignored British intelligence about the coming war, which included the correct start date of the German invasion. The neutrality treaty with Japan suggests that Stalin was being cautious about a German invasion.
USSR was on it's own with Nazi Germany on the continent, even moreso than Imperial Russia had been with Napoleonic France. Britain was in no positiion to help USSR after all. I still have my doubts about the Soviet military readiness. I also think the Stalin believed he would gain more from continuing alliance with Hitler than in a war with him. Did he perhaps believe Hitler would eventually recognise Soviet claims over Finland and the north and eastern Balkans?Link to this forum: Why did Stalin want to avoid war with Germany?
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Message 9
Posted by suvorovetz (U12273591) on Wednesday, 2nd September 2009
RickLeeds I'm not sure USSR WAS prepared for war with Germany.Β "By the summer of 1941, the armed forces of the USSR were the largest in the world. By the beginning of the war [with Germany] they included 7,774,200 troops, of which 4,605,300 were ground troops; 475,700 air force personnel; 353,800 navy personnel; 167,600 border guards; and 171,900 NKVD interior troops. Ground forces included 303 divisions, 16 paratrooper and 3 infantry brigades. The armed forces were equipped with 117,581 cannons and mortars, 24,488 air craft and 25,886 tanks. In the first half of 1941, 100% of tanks and 87% of air craft produced by the soviet industry were the newest models, the production of all other models having been discontinued. Annual growth of the military production reached 39% in 1938-1940, three times as high as the overall industrial production nation-wide." (Beshanov, The Myth of Unpreparedness.)
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Message 10
Posted by poppyanddaisy (U14107848) on Wednesday, 2nd September 2009
wow - all that preperation for the largest encirclement and capture of prisoners - arguably the greatest military disaster of all time - only goes to show - biggest is not necessarily best
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Message 11
Posted by suvorovetz (U12273591) on Wednesday, 2nd September 2009
Also, RickLeeds Hitler refused to recognise this and in 1940/1 Stalin eased off in his claims. Similarly Stalin was eager to take territory in the Balkans but again avoided conflict with Germany when German troops entered the region. The German ambassador in Moscow told Hitler in early 1941 that Stalin would do anything to avoid conflict with Germany.Β Could you be a bit more specific about this? I've just read a million pages of the compilation of the diplomatic correspondence between the Soviet Union and Germany in 1938-1941 published by Felshtinsky. I would certainly not interpret what I read in there the way you (or someone you read) did.
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Message 12
Posted by suvorovetz (U12273591) on Wednesday, 2nd September 2009
Correction By the beginning of the war [with Germany] they included 7,774,200 troopsΒ This number should read 5,774,200. I'm glad I'd caught this before Beshanov did.
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Message 13
Posted by factor13 (U14125104) on Wednesday, 2nd September 2009
Stalin's speech to the Politburo on 19 August 1939 is quite interesting....
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Message 14
Posted by RickLeeds (U14124092) on Wednesday, 2nd September 2009
Then I have to take what you say as correct. I took the info from a history website which may contain information that is out of date I guess. The writer of the piece did say that the information was that of the German analysts at the time (and I acknowledge that the data may have been biased, even if it was from a primary source
). However, the author did say that the information about the size of the Soviet war machine is still a secret.
What your information didn't say was that there was a sizable proportion of those troops based in the east of the Union. The source of my info is:
The following comes from this site (the main page for the site says the information comes from Encyclopedia Americana):
On the size of the Soviet forces:
"Figures on the strength of the Soviet armed forces during World War II and earlier periods remain military secrets. German estimates, which were approximately correct, placed the total initial strength of the Soviet Army at 203 divisions and 46 motorized or armored brigades. Of these, 33 divisions and 5 brigades were in the Far East, while the rest were either on the western frontier or at stations in European Russia. By this reckoning total Soviet personnel strength on hand in Europe to meet the invasion was about 2,300,000 men. The number of Soviet military aircraft was at least twice and possibly as much as three times that of the Germans, but most of the planes were obsolete models. Newer designs were just going into production. The Russians may have had as many as 10,000 tanks, most of them mechanically not inferior to the German types and one, the T-34 Stalin tank, heavier and more powerful than any tank the Germans had until late 1943. The T-34, however, was not as yet in full production."
On the Soviet attitude towards Finland (and other claims) in 1940:
"A visit by Foreign Commissar Vyacheslav M. Molotov to Berlin on Nov. 12-13, 1940, produced the first overt signs of a rift between Germany and the USSR. The purpose of the visit was to discuss the Soviet Union's joining Germany, Italy, and Japan in a four-power alliance. Molotov came armed with demands and complaints. He wanted to know whether Germany intended to honor her treaty obligations with respect to Finland. Lately, in his opinion, the Germans had shown too great an interest in that nation, and the Soviet Union intended to intervene there as it had in the Baltic states. The Soviet government also wanted bases in Bulgaria and control of the Dardanelles. Hitler, on the other hand, talked glowingly of Soviet expansion to the east, into India for instance, and he issued a thinly veiled warning that he would not tolerate further Soviet encroachments in Europe. Concerning Finland, he stated that any new disturbance in the Baltic area would place a heavy strain on German-Soviet relations. The meeting had a definite, if subtle, effect on both partners. The Russians continued to maneuver diplomatically but carefully avoided overt acts. Hitler was thoroughly annoyed at the Russians' display of grasping independence, and he believed that they would not have dared to assert themselves as they had without a secret agreement with the British."
Now I'm not claiming these are definitive facts and I do question everything which is why I came here! So I'm happy to accept more authoritive argument and continue to research myself.Link to this forum: Why did Stalin want to avoid war with Germany?
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Message 15
Posted by RickLeeds (U14124092) on Wednesday, 2nd September 2009
The politburu speech linked above is enlightening. Thank you for that and to everyone else who has posted so far.
It seems that, whether or not USSR was militarily ready to face Germany, politically Stalin was not, or at least he was avoiding conflict.
If anyone else has something to add to the debate please doLink to this forum: Why did Stalin want to avoid war with Germany?
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Message 16
Posted by suvorovetz (U12273591) on Wednesday, 2nd September 2009
RickLeeds Of these, 33 divisions and 5 brigades were in the Far East, while the rest were either on the western frontier or at stations in European Russia.Β This is incorrect. By mid-June 1941 only one mechanized corps remained in the Far East. Two major military districts east of Ural mountains had been almost entirely formed into two armies (I can't recall their numeric designation at the moment, but I can look it up), loaded on rail cars and moved to East Europe. Keep in mind that Stalin had made a deal with the Japanese in April, 1941, and none other than infamous GRU "illegal" Sorge had confirmed with corroborative information that the Japanese would not violate the deal. By the way, the resume of the talks between Molotov and Hitler is by and large accurate, but I don't understand where do you get off by concluding that Stalin was afraid of Hitler and tried to avoid the war with him.
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Message 17
Posted by Stepney Boy (U1760040) on Thursday, 3rd September 2009
Hi,
Just to muddy the waters. Perhaps Stalin expected western europe to fight to a stand still and so then with Germany, France and England etc., totally exhusted he could then sweep across the whole of Europe with his fresh, enlarged and improved armies.
Just a thought
Regards
SpikeLink to this forum: Why did Stalin want to avoid war with Germany?
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Message 18
Posted by suvorovetz (U12273591) on Thursday, 3rd September 2009
Just to muddy the waters. Perhaps Stalin expected western europe to fight to a stand still and so then with Germany, France and England etc., totally exhusted he could then sweep across the whole of Europe with his fresh, enlarged and improved armies.Β This is too good for muddying the waters, Spike. You got it exactly right. Stalin said that out loud as much. In fact, his biggest problem down the stretch was that the British and the French collapsed so fast that the Red Army General Staff was forced to improvise with time-lines. And it was not at all good at that, as it turned out, particularly Zhukov was not.
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Message 19
Posted by Stepney Boy (U1760040) on Thursday, 3rd September 2009
Hi suvorovetz,
Wow
Regards
SpikeLink to this forum: Why did Stalin want to avoid war with Germany?
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Message 20
Posted by RickLeeds (U14124092) on Thursday, 3rd September 2009
suvorovetz,
I didn't mean to imply Stalin was AFRAID of Hitler, as such, more that he was avoiding war with Hitler, which does seem very much to be the case. If he was actively wanting to go to war with Germany, he had the opportunity when he was invited to join Britain and France in the conflict.
As for the placement of the Soviet military, as I say I was quoting from what I had read, which was itself based on German military intelligence. I'm interested to know where your research is from? I'm not questioning the veracity of it; new or previously unreconised evidence is always coming up to shed new light on what we think we know, after all. I'd like to know the source, however. I apologise if I've missed it in previous messages.
Stalin was waiting for either France/Britain to fight Germany to a standstill (as has been said above) but he was also prepared for a German victory, as the link provdided to Stalin's Politburu speech indicates. If Germany won, Stalin calculated that Hitler wouldn't ba able to attack USSR for a decade or more, principally because Germany would be too busy assimilating French and British territory in Europe and worldwide. That would give him the preparation time he wanted (even if, seemingly, he didn't need it).
I'm satisfied that militarily USSR was probably ready for war; that Stalin was simply calculating that he could avoid war by allowing Britain and France to fight Germany. I also think he was expecting to have Hitler ultimately recognise his claims in Finland and the Balkans once the war in the west was over, or be able to take these while whoever won that conflict was recovering.
As a follow-up question, why was the German military so successful in the early stages of Operation Barbarossa?Link to this forum: Why did Stalin want to avoid war with Germany?
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Message 21
Posted by suvorovetz (U12273591) on Thursday, 3rd September 2009
RickLeeds If he was actively wanting to go to war with Germany, he had the opportunity when he was invited to join Britain and France in the conflict.Β On the contrary. All Stalin had to do to avoid the war was to make a deal with the Brits and the French - he said so himself on August 19, 1939. Hitler would have never attacked Poland and the big war would not break out. Moreover, by agreeing to the Pact with Hitler, Stalin eliminated the territorial buffer between the two, which hardly helps one to avoid conflict with the opposite side.
As for the placement of the Soviet military, as I say I was quoting from what I had read, which was itself based on German military intelligence. I'm interested to know where your research is from?Β Soviet military intelligence.
Viktor Suvorov - aka Vladimir Rezun, a GRU operative defected to UK from his station in Geneva(?) in 1978 - published his bomb of a book Icebreaker years later. Mostly based on open, although often obscure sources, like Soviet Brass memoires. But since then a whole host of historians on both sides of the pond joined him with ever increasing body of evidence in his favor. The list of assets and their deployment is hardly in question by now. There are meticulous production records out there. As far as deployment, Suvorov appears to have it down to the last company by now.
As a follow-up question, why was the German military so successful in the early stages of Operation Barbarossa?Β Red Army General Staff with Zhukov at the head discounted the possibility of Wehrmacht attack in June, 1941 - wrongly as it turned out. The massive deployment was exclusively offensive, exposing masses of troops, equipment and supply logistics to a sudden enemy strike. Practically the entire regular army was lost in just a few months as a result. In fact, Stalin would have been better off if he indeed had been trying to avoid this war.Link to this forum: Why did Stalin want to avoid war with Germany?
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Message 22
Posted by RickLeeds (U14124092) on Friday, 4th September 2009
Red Army General Staff with Zhukov at the head discounted the possibility of Wehrmacht attack in June, 1941 - wrongly as it turned out. The massive deployment was exclusively offensive, exposing masses of troops, equipment and supply logistics to a sudden enemy strike. Practically the entire regular army was lost in just a few months as a result. In fact, Stalin would have been better off if he indeed had been trying to avoid this war. Β
This doesn't seem to fit the events to me. Nor does it fit with the speech Stalin gave to the Politburo on 19 August 1939.
"The question of war and peace has entered a critical phase for us. Its solution depends entirely on the position which will be taken by the Soviet Union. We are absolutely convinced that if we conclude a mutual assistance pact with France and Great Britain, Germany will back off from Poland and seek a modus vivendi with the Western Powers. War would be avoided, but further events could prove dangerous for the USSR."
This does indicate, as you say, that Stalin believed Hitler wouldn't invade Poland and that would avoid the war.
"On the other hand, if we accept Germany's proposal, that you know, and conclude a non-aggression pact with her, she will certainly invade Poland, and the intervention of France and England is then unavoidable. Western Europe would be subjected to serious upheavals and disorder. In this case we will have a great opportunity to stay out of the conflict, and we could plan the opportune time for us to enter the war."
On the other hand, he wanted to stay out of the conflict. He was avoiding war with Germany. Yes he knew, as did Hitler, that war between USSR and Germany was going to happen eventually but he didn't want war with Germany then.
The speech tells us he seemed to be avoiding the alliance with Britain/France as that would quickly defeat Germany and that would work against the victory of Communism in Germany. If the Allies won it needed to have been a long war so that they were too exhausted to carry the victory all the way to Berlin.
If Germany won Stalin believed Germany wouldn't be able to begin a war on USSR, mainly because it would take time to assimilate the defeated nations. He therefore expected Hitler to not stop at defeating the Allies but he would occupy them. This was the mistake, in hindsight. Hitler stopped short of occupying Britain, at least temporarily, choosing instead to carry the war to USSR, wanting resources.
Everything in Stalin's speech indicates that his goal was the Communist revolution in Europe or, as he said: "This presents for us a broad field of action for the initiation of world revolution." This included what seems today as optimism on a grand scale. Communism winning in a defeated but unoccupied Germany; Communism winning in an occupied France; Communism emerging in an occupied Europe as people turned to it to save them from National Socialism. He doesn't state it openly but his words: "we could plan the opportune time for us to enter the war" COULD indicate that the plan was to use this widespread Communist uprising as a time when USSR went to war with Germany.
Stalin was avoiding war with Germany in 1939. Whatever the military strength of the USSR in '39 Stalin didn't wan war with Hitler then.Link to this forum: Why did Stalin want to avoid war with Germany?
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Message 23
Posted by suvorovetz (U12273591) on Friday, 4th September 2009
RickLeeds On the other hand, he wanted to stay out of the conflict. He was avoiding war with Germany. Yes he knew, as did Hitler, that war between USSR and Germany was going to happen eventually but he didn't want war with Germany then.Β When is then? Stalin - quite apparently - was counting on the prolonged bloodletting between the Germans, the French and the British. Fast allied collapse posed a big problem for him, but in his mind he was still ahead, and, in fact, he was. Barbarossa was a hasty venture, and Wehrmacht was glaringly unprepared for the Russian campaign in June 1941. Hitler had to hurry because his few major strategic supply routes (not controlled by Stalin already) were threatened by Red Army advances in East Europe and the Baltics. Stalin was avoiding war with Germany in 1939. Whatever the military strength of the USSR in '39 Stalin didn't wan war with Hitler then.Β Hardly anyone would dispute this. What I'm saying - or rather what Stalin is saying - is that the war would be avoided altogether had he made a deal with the French and the British, and that was not what he sought, quite obviously.
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Message 24
Posted by Laura988 (U14088665) on Friday, 4th September 2009
Finland, Poland and the Baltic states were seen as historically part of Russia.Β
Since when ????? I have never heard that my country was ever seen by anyone as historically part of Russia.Link to this forum: Why did Stalin want to avoid war with Germany?
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