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What could happen if germany had taken stalingrad?

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  Posted by faran1 (U2570961) on Thursday, 20th April 2006

  I have been wondering what could happen if the germans were able capture stalingrad

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  Posted by royalTableTop (U3760803) on Thursday, 20th April 2006

  i think it would just have prolonged the inevitable
  
  the ultimate plan of barbarossa was never going to work, the factories were already in the east and armies were still being built past the urals
  
  the nazis could never have won

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  Posted by Martin Raynes (U1656364) on Thursday, 20th April 2006

  I have been wondering what could happen if the germans were able capture stalingradΜύ
  
  I will try to deal with your specific question and then move on to a more general one on the Russian German War.
  
  Had Germany defeated the Russian counter offensive of November 1942 and succeeded in destroying the Russian armies then certainly the situation on the Russian front would have been very different in the two or three years immediately after. Germany would have had no oil shortage and the Russians would have been unable to launch any effective offensives in 1943.
  
  However further German offensives in the East would be unlikely to have achieved their objectives and the strategic initiative would have slipped over to the Soviet Union by late 1944. This would be because of the impact of the USA’s contribution to the war. Rommel would still have lost in Africa. Italy would still have been invaded. Germany would still have the vast majority of its army and air force tied up in Russia in a massive slogging match.
  
  I think the Battle of Normandy would have been a much tougher battle but on balance I think that the allies would have just won but that they would not have been able to crack German defences on the Rhine
  
  I think we would have reached late summer 1945 with the Germans still deep in Russia although on the defensive and defending their western borders with occasional effective tactical counter attacks.
  
  The result would have been the allies dropping the atom bombs on Germany and Germany suing for peace.
  
  The end result would have been a return to post world war one borders and there would have been no communist bloc.
  
  Now let us suppose another scenario. Germany ignores the Balkans and invades Russia on 1st April 1941. The ground would be dry by then and the extra 83 days good weather campaigning would have been sufficient to see the Wehrmacht take Leningrad, Moscow and Stalingrad, dispose of the Siberian reserves when they were committed to save Moscow (around third week in July 1941 in this scenario) and be well on the way to the Urals before the weather closed down in late autumn 1941. Russia would have surrendered unconditionally subsequent to the overthrow of Stalin in early October at the latest.
  
  With Germany now no longer distracted by an eastern front the full force of the Wehrmacht would be directed at their remaining enemy, Britain. However there remains the fact that on 7th December 1941 Japan attacks Pearl Harbour. Three days later Hitler declares war on the USA.
  
  If we assume that an invasion of Western Europe is out of the question with Germany free from worries in the east then we are back with atomic bombs being dropped on Germany in late summer 1945 bringing German surrender and the western allies re drawing the boundaries of the world without reference to Russia.
  
  
  

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  Posted by Turnwrest (U2188092) on Thursday, 20th April 2006

  I have been wondering what could happen if the germans were able capture stalingradΜύ
  
  It depends on when, and at what cost, that was achieved. A prolonged but unsuccessful defence which cost the Germans dear in men and materiel would probably have drawn the teeth of any further major southern front operations that year, giving time for the oilfields to be reinforced, and leaving even longer l-o-c open to interdiction by Russian counterattacks the following spring.

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  Posted by George1507 (U2607963) on Thursday, 20th April 2006

  Although Stalingrad was a prime target for the political siginificance of the name, it also was a strategically important area for the oilfields, and the boat traffic on the Volga.
  
  If the Germans won at Stalingrad, it may have meant the Soviets would not have been able to regroup and counter attack so successfully.
  
  If the Germans had captured Stalingrad without big losses, the Soviets may never have pushed them back, and the Normandy landings may never have happened.

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  Posted by pop-picker (U1244478) on Thursday, 20th April 2006

  wasn't Stalin open to negotiations even after the German defeat at Stalingrad. Wasn't that one of Churchills greatest fears that Russia would agree a seperate peace. Laterly I think it was the Russians that feared the west making a seperate peace leaving the Wehrmacht intact

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  Posted by Turnwrest (U2188092) on Friday, 21st April 2006

  Bearing in mind what the Germans were trying to acheive on that front, isn't there a fair argument that they really didn't NEED to take Stalingrad at all? Masking it to prevent attacks being launched from there would have sufficed.

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  Posted by henrylee100 (U536041) on Friday, 21st April 2006

  
  Now let us suppose another scenario. Germany ignores the Balkans and invades Russia on 1st April 1941. The ground would be dry by then and the extra 83 days good weather campaigning would have been sufficient to see the Wehrmacht take Leningrad, Moscow and Stalingrad, dispose of the Siberian reserves when they were committed to save Moscow (around third week in July 1941 in this scenario) and be well on the way to the Urals before the weather closed down in late autumn 1941. Russia would have surrendered unconditionally subsequent to the overthrow of Stalin in early October at the latest.
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  you make it sound as if the Germans got defeated by bad weather conditions alone in the east. There was also the lack of any real road infrastructure to speak of so that the German tanks made to roll along smooth european blacktops brok down when faced with the Russian dirt trucks having all their filters stuck with dust etc. Plus there was the soviet army putting up resitance there, while they may have lost Leningrad and even surrendered Moscow, don't think Stalin would have been overthrowen. In fact they actually did seriously consider leaving Moscow and retreating beyiond the Volga. it wouldn't have been the first time in history that they had left Moscow. Don't think they'd have surrendered unconditionally, especially if you considered that they actually did succeed at moving most of their their factories beyond the Urals in the summer of 1941. Plus with their plan Ost that Hitler insisted on implementing ASAP, the Germans would still have alianated the local populations in exactly the same way as they did in reality which would have lead to a Yugoslbalia style guerrilla warfare which, with a threat from the beyond the Volga would have still meant sizable numbers of troops being tied up in Russia even in the most favorable scenarios with the remaining Russians beyong the volga making peace with Germany. Russia's just too big to be successfully conquered by any european nation, fighting in Russia you can retreat to fight another day almost indefinetely content in the knowledge that your enemy will never have enough manpower to cover all of the vast territory.
  
  With Germany now no longer distracted by an eastern front the full force of the Wehrmacht would be directed at their remaining enemy, Britain. However there remains the fact that on 7th December 1941 Japan attacks Pearl Harbour. Three days later Hitler declares war on the USA.
  
  If we assume that an invasion of Western Europe is out of the question with Germany free from worries in the east then we are back with atomic bombs being dropped on Germany in late summer 1945 bringing German surrender and the western allies re drawing the boundaries of the world without reference to Russia.
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  if the Germans had succeeded in the east they'd have had more time and resources to make their own atomic bombs. Now you realize that even such fine strategic bombers as B-29's could'd fly across the atlantic. Having defeated Russia by late 1941 and with nothing left to do the Germans might as well have invaded Britain and Ireland and disposed of the two by mid 1942. Don't know if B-29's could have reached Germany from Iceland, in any case I guess under those circumstances the Germans wouldn't have had much trouble disposing of the allied forces in Africa as well, which means no air stips could have been built there to lauch trategic air raid from. Then they might have allied with some latin american nations cashing in on the latter's historical hatred for the Gringoes which would have allowed them to move troops to the American continent. So for sure A-bombs would have been dropped , there could have been no stopping of that, but I think the Americans would have found themselves having to drop them on Mexico city first and maybe having a few of the German ones dropped on themselves.

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  Posted by henrylee100 (U536041) on Friday, 21st April 2006

  
  Although Stalingrad was a prime target for the political siginificance of the name, it also was a strategically important area for the oilfields, and the boat traffic on the Volga.
  
  If the Germans won at Stalingrad, it may have meant the Soviets would not have been able to regroup and counter attack so successfully.
  
  If the Germans had captured Stalingrad without big losses, the Soviets may never have pushed them back, and the Normandy landings may never have happened.
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  in theory they could have won at Stalingrad but I don't think by that stage it would have been possible for them to have won without significant losses, which means that while they might have won that particular battle they'd still have found it rather difficult to carry on in the east effectively. I think such a victory would have resulted in at least a year of relatively low intensity war in the east because both sides would have needed time to recuperate, any attempt by the Germans to attack would still have had to be at a local scale and may still have well resulted in a variation on the battle of Kursk (which by the way too was a local affair compared with the offensives of the summers o 1941 and 1942)

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  Posted by JIMBOB52 (U3286524) on Friday, 21st April 2006

  Like a lot of what ifs? The below has a number of problems if i can break it up:
  
  "the Germans had succeeded in the east they'd have had more time and resources to make their own atomic bombs." That suggests a rational regime. I think they would be much more likely to committ massive resources to purges/extermination programmes in the East. The regimes "character" would almost demand it. Also, whilst sadly not a nuclear scientist, I understand that the German atomic bomb reasearch was going up a blind alley, the US would still have it first, so bye bye Berlin 1945, war over, allied victory, possibly with massively fewer Western casualties.
  
  
  
  "Now you realize that even such fine strategic bombers as B-29's could'd fly across the atlantic. Having defeated Russia by late 1941 and with nothing left to do the Germans might as well have invaded Britain and Ireland and disposed of the two by mid 1942."
  How? Magic ships? D-Day showed how difficult an amphibious landing could be in the time period, and that was with massive naval/air supremacy, neither of which would have been available to Germany. An invasion after the US build up in the UK started would end in disaster for Germany. And thats assuming they get the ships from somewhere. I'ld expect a disasterous attempt, a naval Stalingrad in terms of losses, which would also deter a reverse Anglo/Amercian invasion of the continet. End result, Stalemate until 1945 Berlin go boom.
  
  "Don't know if B-29's could have reached Germany from Iceland," Wouldn;t have to, when the South East of England is so much closer.
  
  " in any case I guess under those circumstances the Germans wouldn't have had much trouble disposing of the allied forces in Africa as well, which means no air stips could have been built there to lauch trategic air raid from."
  
  I agree here however if Britain was threatend as above there may not ne too many westenr resources for the germans to fight in Africa, defending home would be massively more important.
  
  "Then they might have allied with some latin american nations cashing in on the latter's historical hatred for the Gringoes which would have allowed them to move troops to the American continent. So for sure A-bombs would have been dropped , there could have been no stopping of that, but I think the Americans would have found themselves having to drop them on Mexico city first and maybe having a few of the German ones dropped on themselves"
  
  Now this is very unlikely. For Mexico to take on the US and Canada would require a degree of military insanity, again where are the Germans going to get the shipping to be any help to Mexico, and there on an awfully tight timetable what with Invading Africa, Britain, subduing the East and getting accross to Latin america, again all before '45 when the atom bomb comes to town.
  
  In short unless Germany delivers a knock put victory in the East and forces an allied surrender/ cease fire by '45 then the clock is always ticking down to mushroom clouds in the Father land.
  
  Jim

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  Posted by Slimdaddy101 (U2553470) on Friday, 21st April 2006

  I have been wondering what could happen if the germans were able capture stalingradΜύ
  
  I have pondered this before and have nothing to offer that has not already been stated, however I have often mused: What would have happened if the Nazis' instead of marching into the Soviet Union and murdering, pillaging and the likes, came as liberators of Stalin. Many Eastern Europeans joined the Nazis and spread the reign of terror, but most resisted. If the Germans conquered but did not hang people from lamp posts and blatantly steal food supplies etc could they not have recruited many more to join them, swelling their ranks but more imortantly nuetralise the partisans or at least seriously affect their ability to operate.

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  Posted by henrylee100 (U536041) on Friday, 21st April 2006

  well I have to concede that the latin america scenario was a real streatch. Regarding the A-bombs though, the Germans were short on the right materials to build a bomb but by all accounts by 1945 they pretty much had the necessary know how. there were a couple of near misses when they almost got their hands on heavy water, both times it escaped them, one time if I'm not mistaken it was the famoust Danish Physisist Bore who took the only sample with him when he left Denmakr for Sweden, then there was another time in Norway when allied airforce delivered a precision strike to a feright car of the stuff waiting to go down to Germany, or something like this. So thing is according to most accounts that I heard if they'd have had more resources and access to the right stuff they could have gotten themselves and A-bomb by late 45 early 46. Sure it would still have been later than the US, but then in 1945 the US could really mass produced them either and delivery by air wasn't exactly 100%, planes do get shot down occasionally, especially in war. In 1945 the Germans had laready fielded the Me-262 so I guess the actual delivery of instant sunshine to Berlin might have posed some problems. They could have been used against the troops though. On the other hands the Germans already had their V-2's

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  Posted by Turnwrest (U2188092) on Friday, 21st April 2006

  "Little Boy" weighed nearly 9,000 lbs, "Fat Man" almost 11,000. Payload of V2 - c2000 lbs.

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