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On the cusp

Mark Mardell | 15:33 UK time, Monday, 1 September 2008

"The holidays from history have ended," said the Polish Foreign Minister Radowlaw Sikorski, adding that after the Russian invasion of Georgia Nato membership was no longer a cost-free option.

This was a fascinating meeting, just a few steps away from the EU summit in Brussels - a debate organised by the German Marshall Fund on the Georgian war, featuring the Russian ambassador and the Georgian minister for conflict. The clash of interpretation between them was obvious, if interesting.

The Georgian minister, Termuir Yakobashvilli, said that he had been warning of this for ages and, in May, here in Brussels, he had told senior people that the region was on the brink of war.

He said he was told: "Don't mention the W word in this city, it isn't welcome". The Russian Ambassador, Vladimir Chizov, said that it was false that the Russians had planned the action and called it a "peace enforcement operation".

But Mr Sikorski was definitely the most pithy speaker. He's an interesting man, previously close to American neo-cons and one of the original authors of the Polish aspect of the missile scheme when defence minister for the previous Polish government. He's married to the journalist and writer Anne Applebaum. Although he might be too transatlantic for some European tastes, he is also my tip for a future EU high representative.

He said that we had reached a cusp of history and that while everyone wanted to avoid a second Cold War if there was one he had no doubt who would win it: Europe was ten times richer than Russia.

UPDATE, 04:40PM: The British and Polish are trying to beef up a statement on the European Union's relations with Russia. They want talks planned for the 16th of September on a trade agreement called off and today's summit to declare "the union will not take any action to reinforce the relationship with Russia". Certainly, the commission's leader President Barrosso would agree with this line and wants to declare after the meeting that there cannot be business at usual. Others think this too tough.

The summit will announce that the EU is "gravely concerned" by the conflict, and the Russian recognition of the breakaway republics is "unacceptable". It will call for the withdrawal of troops "without delay": although there is an argument about whether to single out the Russians or apply the call to both sides.

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