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A one-shot strategy

Mark Mardell | 08:51 UK time, Monday, 8 September 2008

Inside the old gothic fortress Carmen sang, and Carmen danced, a special one-off. A dazzling performance to entertain the European Union's foreign ministers during . The soaring voice and the spinning across stage were however marred by strange undergraduate gimmicks: a small rotating plinth videoed and projected on to the back wall of the Papal Palace not only flowers and sparklers, but images of a World War II fighter plane and models of what appeared to be World War I soldiers in the trenches.

No expert on classical music, the reference to 20th century wars in this 19th century opera baffled me. Perhaps the earnest director just hoped not to distract and entertain the ministers but to return them to the subject at the front their minds: war, European war, the first European war of the 21st century.

French President Sarkozy and Russian President MedvedevThe ministers had a wide-ranging discussion ahead of . This is a potentially pivotal moment for the European Union. For those who passionately want it to develop a coherent and strong foreign policy it's the test of a position that is tougher than expected, which some insiders are portraying as no longer lowest common denominator, but highest common factor.

It was the French president who insisted that he led the mission to demand the Russians to implement the peace deal he negotiated.

But it's very high risk to send your very highest delegation for the first meeting. They could have sent technical staff to prepare the ground for a low level official meeting which would in turn quietly test the water. This the highest possible level that the EU could send... As one senior diplomat put it to me, "We've got one shot. If they snub us, it is a serious situation and it can't be business as usual."

Some of a more hawkish tendency within the EU think this might be a good thing. Of course they would rather the delegation gets what it wants. But they would prefer a clear rejection to subtle shades of grey. The argument goes that if the Russians tell Sarkozy to get lost then the European Union will be plunged into a discussion about what consequences Russia will suffer. Wafting around are suggestions about boycotting next year's Eurovision song contest or cooperation over research and development of space policy.

"Ouch" you may say, bet that'll make Putin think again. But no-one is under any illusions that this is a dispute that will be over by the end of the week. Some senior figures argue that all the tools at the disposal of the European Union are long term tools, to be used in an argument that will run for 15 years but can't be settled in the short term.

This is probably a rather grown up view. But we all live a short term, quick reaction world, and if the European Union looks as if it reacts to a snub by scratching its collective 27 heads and pausing for months it will be ridiculed in many quarters.

But is President Sarkozy feeling a little bit guilty?

There is an interesting story , which I have heard from a highly respectable source. According to my source, the French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner and the Finnish foreign minister Alex Stubb (as chairman of the European Organisation for Peace and Stability) had negotiated a ceasefire within the overarching frame which insisted on Georgia's territorial integrity, a point that is now vital. But just before they were to fly to Moscow from Tbilisi, Sarkozy phoned up and demanded they waited for him.

According to this story, Sarkozy insisted on his own deal, which missed out the crucial point about territorial integrity and was in bad French with the President's name misspelt. My source argues this was proof that the ceasefire was handed down by Moscow. One of the apparent loopholes will be the crux of today's talks. It reads: "Russian military forces must withdraw to the lines occupied before the start of hostilities. Until an international mechanism is put in place, Russian peace keeping troops will implement the security measures".

This obviously leaves lots of wriggle room for the Russians about who are peacekeepers and who should be withdrawing. I expect this is how the discussion in Moscow will proceed. But if it doesn't and the Russians are more hard-line the EU will again have a dilemma. Perhaps ministers should consult their programme notes for "Dialogue de Carmen" which state that her tragedy was being torn between desire and status.

PS. Re my last post: At school I got used to comments like " good work spoilt by appalling spelling" but the spell checker should make such errors a thing of the past. Apologies for the stupid mistakes that have so distressed a couple of you.

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