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This piece is part of a Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ TV series focusing on Conservative policy.

If becomes prime minister he may spend an awful lot of time in Brussels and talking about Europe. It's a tricky and potentially dangerous topic for the , but the handful of policies that have been announced suggest it could blow up into one of the big stories of PM Cameron's first term in office. The Irish No to raises even more tantalising possibilities.

The Conservatives are clear that they don't want to leave the European Union, but have very severe doubts about the way it is being run at the moment. Mr Cameron has made two firm promises: to take back certain powers from the EU and put his party at the forefront of forging a brand new European political group. But more oblique hints suggest he could also be heading for a first-term referendum on Britain's relationship with the EU.

That's an awful lot of the "E" word for someone who was elected leader promising not to "bang on" about Europe. It is a subject that evokes real passion in the hearts of many Conservative stalwarts. That can make it an awkward subject too, where pragmatism is seen as betrayal and principle as obsession. The Conservative civil war was about Europe, and it was a huge factor in Mrs Thatcher's downfall and the undermining of John Major's government.

But times have changed, the pro-European generals, like Ken Clark and Michael Heseltine, may not have quit the field, but no longer command big battalions. The vast majority of those in power now range from suspicion of the EU to downright hostility. They think this is a mirror image of the views of the British voters. Lower down the ranks, while few openly advocate leaving the EU, many see a semi-detached relationship as a logical outcome.

Mr Cameron's first foray into European politics has not been an unqualified success. During his campaign to become Conservative leader he won some over with a promise to pull the Conservatives out of their current grouping in the . He hasn't yet been able to keep the promise. As this is exactly the sort of esoteric Euro-row that seems designed to confuse, I will leave this most pressing problem until last.

Most Conservatives think the Irish rejection of the Lisbon Treaty is a gift. While it helps them argue the case that the treaty is dead, it also hands them a convenient blunt weapon for next year's Euro elections.

The June 2009 elections for the European Parliament will be taken by most in Westminster and perhaps many in the country as merely a dress rehearsal for the general election. But there's likely to be clear blue water between the main parties on Europe itself. It is now certain that if the Lisbon Treaty is still in limbo the Conservatives will offer a referendum if they win the next election. What if the Irish do vote again, and do vote Yes?

The shadow foreign secretary, William Hague, argues: "If this treaty is ratified in this country without a referendum, and if it is ratified in all other countries and comes into force before a general election, in our view not only would political integration have gone too far but the treaty would lack democratic legitimacy in Britain. So as we have already made clear, that situation would not be acceptable to an incoming Conservative government and we would not let matters rest there".

What precisely this means the Conservatives will not say at this stage, but it sounds like a pretty big hint that there will either be an attempt at renegotiating Lisbon or a referendum on Britain's relationship with the European Union, or a combination of the two.

The other major Conservative promise is to bring home certain powers from Brussels. They would attempt to "repatriate", as it is known in the jargon, both social and employment policy. This is complex, because so much of it is covered by health and safety legislation. Many Conservative MPs and MEPs want fishing policy brought home as well, although at the moment Mr Cameron's team judge this to be too complex. Others would add to the shopping list perhaps defence, perhaps agriculture.

These priorities for an incoming Conservative government would be against a background of a shift in the European political landscape.

The Conservatives are at the moment part of the , which is dominated by the German Christian Democrats and the French UMP, both currently parties of government. It is the biggest and most powerful grouping in the parliament. While centre-right, it is pretty enthusiastic about a Europe of "ever further union".

That is why Mr Cameron wants to pull out of the group. But his initial promise proved hard to keep. The most obvious partners, the Czech , don't want to link up until after the European elections in June 2009. One source tells me this will happen and they are on course to form the fourth-largest grouping in the European Parliament, with 60 members and six countries involved. A more cynical source says that is "tosh to put it politely: we'd link up with one serious party of government and a series of mavericks and extremists". At any rate, it would mean even before Mr Cameron had to start hard negotiations about Britain's relationship with the EU he would have severely annoyed the leaders of the two most powerful EU countries, France and Germany.

It wouldn't be the best background for what is big, high-wire stuff. It is just about possible to see other EU countries allowing British opt-outs on social and employment law. It is approaching the fanciful to expect these other countries to allow Britain to opt out of a treaty that has already been ratified.

But if there had been a referendum in Britain that instructed the government to seek a different relationship they would have to accept it, at least in some form. It is hard to see whether this would end up with new opt-outs, a new relationship, an exit strategy or a reconstruction of the whole European project. Some think the latter is possible. In the words of one enthusiast, the Conservatives would "storm the citadel" and lead a Europe-wide movement that would change the EU into a more democratic, looser organisation, no longer aimed at "ever greater union".

But there is a potential downside. On the Conservative Party's main webpage on policy there is not a single mention of Europe - a reflection of the high command's belief that while people may agree with them about the EU, it is not a main priority for most voters. If Mr Cameron does end up "banging on" about Europe, fighting a referendum campaign against a new Labour leader who'd be seeking to make a mark, it might rather bore the voters, who thought schools and hospitals were Mr Cameron's priority.

So there are those who think this will remain on the back burner. One Conservative politician, who desperately wants a changed relationship with the EU, believes only a leader with a Powellite obsessiveness and a willingness to take on the whole of the civil service, the diplomatic corps, big business as well as France and Germany could succeed. And he adds ruefully that sort of politician doesn't become party leader these days.

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