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The barriers are up and the leaders are about to arrive.

The former UK Foreign Secretary Jack Straw used to talk of summits as "two shirters" or "three shirters", taking ministerial packing as a good clue to how long it would all take.

But this could be the "two crises" summit. The one is that caused by the Irish "No" to The other, the subject previously top of the agenda, is the fuel crisis hitting families and businesses all over Europe. Don't be surprised if the leaders try to combine the two: "we'd love to help but we need the Lisbon Treaty to act". At the very least they will stress that their top priority is dealing with concerns about high prices, rather than institutional navel-gazing.

This is a critical summit. The outcomes may not be dramatic, because it is in the leaders' interests to appear calm and collected. It's most likely, after some preamble on meeting the concerns of citizens, they will talk about respecting the Irish, the need for Lisbon and push everything off to another summit in October. But even if they manage an appearance of stately swan-like progress there will be furious paddling beneath the water.

Here are the things to look out for:

• Is the October meeting a deadline or just a staging post? In other words, how much time will the Irish be given to come up with some proposals? The mood music towards the Irish, punitive or understanding, will be important.

• Is there a united Franco-German position? For the first time ever the German press conference will be translated into English and French - a sign Chancellor Merkel intends to speak for Europe.

• Is a bigger European Union linked to the treaty? France's President Sarkozy and the president of the European Parliament have argued: without Lisbon, and others can't join the EU as planned. Does everyone agree?

• The Czech position: They are teetering on the brink of pulling the plug.. will they do it? We know the president is not keen on signing, the prime minister has issued a statement saying: "The Irish 'No' is not of a lesser impact for us than the French and Dutch 'No'. It signifies that no matter whether the ratification process continues or not, the Lisbon Treaty will not enter into force. The Czech ratification process has been suspended until the official decision of the constitutional court. That leaves us time for further debate inside the Czech Republic as well as in the EU."

Sounds clear enough, but will he be sat upon?

The real business will be over dinner, but I'd better go and watch what the leaders say as they come into the first meeting.

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