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Ten years of the euro

Mark Mardell | 00:01 UK time, Wednesday, 7 May 2008

Do you miss the drachma and the deutschmark, or do you wish the pound had gone the way of the peseta?

Greek drachmas

The European Commission is today celebrating ten years since the official decision to adopt the single currency.

The euro is now used by . Later today we expect an announcement that Slovakia will be allowed .

But the commission feels that the currency isn't punching its weight so is coming up with some ideas to add heft to its blow.

In the words of one insider, although the euro was a deeply political project, the eurozone is at the moment "an economic giant but a political dwarf".

There are two prescriptions, both familiar to those who follow European Union politics.

One is that economic ministers should think more about their responsibilities to the bloc as a whole, and less of their national interest.

In a phrase almost designed to give a delicious shiver to eurosceptics, the commission promises to "better exploit all instruments provided by the Lisbon treaty to promote broader economic policy coordination."

The second prescription is to speak with a single European voice to the outside world.

Top tables

One idea is to exclude extraneous chatter from mere nation states at the world's top tables.

The commission will argue for a single seat in international financial bodies. I can't get any clarity but I presume they mean the IMF, the OECD, the World Bank and perhaps the G8.

"At the moment we take up too many seats, too much space," says one official.

Britain, in the EU but not the eurozone, would presumably keep its seats on all these bodies although, again, I can't be certain of that.

But would we have been better off joining the euro when it began? When Labour won the 1997 election many of us assumed that there would be a referendum within a couple of years on joining the euro.

. Now the idea of Britain joining isn't a blip on even the most sensitive and wide-ranging political radars.

While Blair was keen on the euro, Brown changed his mind on becoming chancellor.

Despite the , he is hostile to the whole project. He not only believes it would be bad for Britain, he thinks long-term the currency is doomed to failure, full stop.

Gordon Brown

Or at least semi colon: he cannot see how a single currency can work over a long time when individual countries need such different interest rates

'Historic error'

But many of those who were in favour in 1997 think Britain will one day join.

The head of the , John Monks, is one of them.

He told me: "I think it's almost certain to be seen as a historic error that Britain missed a chance to be part of forming something rather than being under pressure to deliver later. So I think what governments were too timid to do, to join the euro, will be seen as a big mistake."

He says although there are obviously winners and losers Britain would have been better off with the euro.

"The effects of it have been masked by the effects of a strong pound over the last five of six years and the British economy doing well, but now the pound has shot down 16 points against the euro and we are moving back into an era of volatile currencies and the pound is not in a strong position."

Indeed he argues the euro has been essential in helping the world weather the sub prime crisis.

"The euro has made a big difference," Mr Monks says.

"What would have happened if we hadn't had the euro? We would probably have had devaluations of the franc and the lira and some other currencies against a strong deutschmark.

"The currency instability in Europe would have had an effect in the rest of the world and would have deepened the atmosphere of gloom and crisis. As it is, we have a very solid currency in the European Union."

'One size fits all'

But thinks the strains are just beginning to show.

euro coin and Β£10 note

"You are starting to see some really alarming problems of exactly the kind that people who were critical expected.

"Because you have a "one size fits all" monetary policy, you have a country like Spain with completely the wrong interest rate and that inevitably means bigger booms and busts, more unemployment and damage to the economy.

"The euro's never been stress-tested so far, but now we are heading into choppy waters. There is no lender of last resort, so if big banks goes bust the whole thing could unravel quite quickly."

Mr O'Brien's dismissive about the idea that Britain will join, one day in the distant future.

He believes the political discussion about joining the euro is over and "it will stay over".

"The government, in their five test assessment, made the case very strongly that the UK economy is just not convergent enough with the eurozone for a whole number of structural reasons.

"You get people who say 'well, it's not the economics: we need to be in there politically' and I think that is very dangerous.

"If people can't tell you what exchange rate they want to join at; they can't tell you what we should do if we have the wrong interest rates and have the idea that we should take an economic gamble for political reasons just so they can go to certain meetings in Brussels, that is a very dangerous idea."

Who's right? Anyone inside the eurozone who wants to get out? Or outside who wants to get in?

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