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America has a "race" to be president. What do we have, here in the European Union, when it comes to the competition for the job of president?

The new job, that is, . Nothing so obvious and active that it would justify any athletic metaphor.

Over the last few days I've toyed with thoughts about Rubik's cubes, snooker or those hugely irritating plastic games where you have to jiggle several little balls into hollows.

All capture the fiendish task of balancing three top jobs (the new president, the new high representative for foreign affiairs and the president of the commission) where the appointments have to please a clear majority of EU leaders, balance the left and the right and small and large countries.

Musical chairs

But perhaps musical chairs is better.

If you watch children playing musical chairs, you will observe several types of individual.

Those who, rather naively, enter into the spirit of the thing dashing around and only looking for a seat when the music actually stops.

Then there are those anxious not to lose, who hover too obviously near a particular chair, not daring to join the fun and games.

And there are those who bounce around with all appearance of abandon, all the while carefully watching mummy's hand on the "stop" button.

The moment the hand moves, they make sure they are sitting down, knocking hoverers and dashers alike to the ground.

The point is you can't afford to look too obvious.

Earlier in the week I reported on Radio 4 .

It followed shortly after a friendly meeting between the French president and the German leader, Angela Merkel, and was a result, I presumed, of her reluctance to give Blair the job.

But others think that Sarkozy was playing a cleverer game than that.

All the Brussels insiders and old hands I know agree on one thing about top jobs in the European Union.

The front-runner never wins, and the winner emerges from the woodwork at the last moment.

So was Mr Sarkozy trying to push Blair back into the woodwork, to spring out again at a more appropriate moment?

Favourites

Certainly much of the hot money seems to be moving on to the , who as a good player of the game, stresses he is not a candidate.

But the French briefing also pointedly said that the two best qualified people for the two presidential posts (commission and council) were Luxembourg's Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker and the current President of the Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso.

It didn't say who should get which job.

Some think would be a wise choice for president of the council.

Peter Ludlow, the author of , wrote way back in December "those inclined to take bets on the identity of the first permanent president of the European Council might be well-advised to consider what odds to quote on Barroso.

"As one who has in his time been president of the commission, prime minister and foreign minister, Barroso has... both the pedigree and, if 2007 is anything to go by, the form to do a job that is as crucially important as it is fiendishly difficult."

When I last asked Barroso about this, his reply was on the lines of "I am very happy in the job I am doing".

For once I think we can take a politician's statement nearly at face value: he would rather stay on as president of the commission. That doesn't mean that he couldn't be persuaded to switch.

For who else is there? Bertie Ahern is mentioned sometimes, but .

Merkel would, no doubt, be excellent but her job is to win the German election in 2009.

Worth a bet?

Isn't there anybody I haven't mentioned?

Well, quite a few, in one sense. Any former head of government or head of state could be in the running.

I have neither the time nor patience to make a list of all the potential candidates, which would include all the former presidents and prime ministers of EU countries.

rather fancies himself for the job, I'm told.

Kohl and Thatcher aren't well enough. Any past leaders you'd place a bet on?

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