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How about a month off taxes?

Mark Mardell | 08:23 UK time, Thursday, 10 April 2008

Italy鈥檚 economy is suffering, not so much from a credit crunch but a crisis of consumer confidence.
Silvio Berlusconi on Italian television 9 April

But could Silvio Berlusconi give it a big boost if he wins the weekend鈥檚 elections?

He鈥檚 told , that there鈥檚 something very much he wants to do: give Italy a month off taxes.

He says it would be a 鈥渕onth of freedom鈥, without spelling out whether this is just income tax, or includes all of Italy鈥檚 many taxes from corporate tax, sales tax and tax on houses to tax to pay for the health service.

It鈥檚 perhaps not such a daft idea. Before I saw it, , was telling me that whoever gets into power needs to give the economy a psychological boost.

The credit crunch isn鈥檛 such a great problem as in other European countries or America but rates of growth are approaching zero, while food and energy prices have gone up and people are finding it more and more difficult to make ends meet after the third week of the month.

But he claims the outgoing government was being deliberately pessimistic so that taxes could be put up, but now what is needed is a burst of optimism to encourage spending.

Plus, a reason for that optimism: he muses that there must be some tax changes to take the pressure off people鈥檚 real incomes.

'Imagination'

So ? I guess we鈥檒l never know. Mr Berlusconi confesses 鈥渨e probably won鈥檛 be able to do it: it would cost too much鈥.

But he adds 鈥渋t shows we don鈥檛 lack the imagination to solve the problems鈥.

I rather disagree. If you know you are not going to do it, why not be really bold? Propose a tax-free year, or indeed abolishing taxes altogether while doubling pensions.

But I suppose it is some advance to see politicians abandoning their plans in their next sentence rather than after election.

Professor Secchi, however, points towards another phenomenon - also noted by Vedrana Obucina - that the dolce vita isn鈥檛 dead.

鈥淧sychological mood plays such an important part in Italy. While many people insist on the negative, how come when we have a long weekend the roads and the restaurants are full up?鈥

Perhaps they are among the many Italians who don鈥檛 pay their taxes, whether it's freedom month or not.


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  • 1.
  • At 10:42 AM on 10 Apr 2008,
  • Giacomo Dorigo wrote:

Taxes in Italy are too high for two reasons: the State costs too much, people dodging taxes are too many.

But the causes of this at-least-10-years-lasting economic stagnation or low growth are many:
1. the States costs too much AND it isn't able to give good services, so as a public
2. the free market is not actually free, in many fields economy is still a kind of "medieval-craft-guild" one, or if it is much modern it is anyway characterized by oligopolistic dynamics (see RAI-Mediaset dual control of the TV market)
3. politicians are unable to avoid putting their (often dirty) hands into economics

This three bring to market inefficiencies which Italians has to pay both as a public and as private consumers

4. there is no justice: top level people find every trick not being punished for their crimes and bottom level organized crime has the control of the entire economy of the south of Italy and of a piece of that in the north
5. talented young scholars fly away, more in the US but also in the UK, France, Germany and recently Spain
6. there is not a wide-spread culture of technological/management innovation

All these things bring to a lack of foreign investments

And so, we pay for market inefficiencies and we are not able to attract foreign investments... this means: NO MONEY.

This just for giving a little more articulated picture of the hard actual Italian economic problems, something which is not about faith and magic...

If you want to know more about Italian economical problems, this is the best place on the net:

Last but not least

  • 2.
  • At 11:05 AM on 10 Apr 2008,
  • Simon L wrote:

I have to say I laughed really hard when I read this - is it just me or has Berlusconi basically just gone "listen to my great idea! its great isnt it?" and then "sadly though it will cost too much to do". Its like saying "We will offer free education for all!... but sadly we can't offer it just now because it costs too much... can we have your vote please anyway?".

Berlusconi is a nightmare, but its clear he's going to win. I don't think he really has to do much to win this campaign to be honest - but if he gets in on false promises like this one then there's not much hope for the Italian electorate I'm afraid.

  • 3.
  • At 11:40 AM on 10 Apr 2008,
  • Anonymous, Brussels wrote:

Berlusconi is Europe's answer to India's Lalu Yadav. Cheers. Lalu, when he became Railway Minister lowered the price of Railway tickets and managed to turn the loss- making sloth into a profitable tiger. Who knows, given a free hand and beautiful secretaries, perhaps, Berlusconi may yet do the same for Italy. After all, India and Italy have a lot in common.

  • 4.
  • At 09:08 AM on 11 Apr 2008,
  • Ronald Gr眉nebaum wrote:

I don't know anyone who takes Berlusconi seriously. He is just a clown with money.

But I also have a very low opinion about Italians when it comes to politics and governance. They are just utterly infantile and immature. I really wouldn't be surprised if they give Berlusconi a third term. Of course, this will put Italy into terminal decline. But what can you do when a nation simply doesn't want to change its old ways of favouritism, cheating and total lack of discipline?

With all those Thathcher clons popping up around Europe, Italy seem to be immune to strong and determined leadership.

  • 5.
  • At 11:32 AM on 11 Apr 2008,
  • Bedd Gelert wrote:

Excellent post ! Your dry wit is a breath of fresh air, after the sycophancy of American politics..

  • 6.
  • At 03:34 PM on 11 Apr 2008,
  • Paul M wrote:

Has anybody got the guts to say what one of Italy's real problems is? Yes, that four letter word, the EURO. Italy needs interest rate cuts but it is the Germans that call the tune on setting that key parameter. They won't be cutting rates until the German economy needs it. Oh dear.

Will 'Club Med' start the exodus from the Euro? Looks like it could and very soon the way things are in Spain and Italy. The Euro was always going to be a lie and now that lie is finally being exposed.

Liras anybody?

How pleased I am that we in the UK saw off the nightmare of the Euro - now all we have to do is shrug off the whole EU and its fatally flawed constructed uniformity. Would Italy like to the lead way to a 'new' Europe?

Berlusconi is one of the many clowns that make silly promises, the italian situation is desperate and these foolish men are making it worse. For the benefit of Italy and Europe Berlusconi and company (even his rivals) should leave politics !!

  • 8.
  • At 01:28 PM on 13 Apr 2008,
  • Mark wrote:

Taking a month off from taxes isn't a bad idea...if you cut spending by 8 1/3% at the same time. Otherwise it just creates a larger deficit. The reason the market would react to a month off from paying taxes rather than an 8 1/3% tax cut is that it is stupid. It looks at two things that are essentially the same (the net present value of 8 1/3% payout spread over a year is only slightly less gain to the taxpayer than 8 1/3 at once even if it came immediately) and sees two entirely different things. In this case as in many, psychology depends on people not using logic...or math.

To Ronald Gr眉nebaum.

This is a little unfair on the Italians. Prodi promised the world but made things worse. Mr B, with the amount of money he has can, effectually, walk the election. Most of the politicians are ancient and, the way that Italy works, the young people can only get to join up for one of the 150 or so smaller parties.

The ordinary voter doesn't really have much choice - it's Veltroni or Berlusconi - neither of which are a real choice for change.

Of course, any politician (and they seem to be quite a corrupt bunch) has the added problem that, should they exercise any real Thatcher policies, they will bring the country to it's knees, the unions being so much stronger than they were in the UK and the people not ready to ditch them yet.

Alitalia being the latest example; people where I work still think that Alitalia is a real flag-bearer for Italy and shrug when you point out that it costs each of them so much money. Many of them think that it can be saved whilst keeping it much the same as it is.

  • 10.
  • At 11:27 PM on 14 Apr 2008,
  • pv wrote:

Having moved here more than 8 years ago I feel I can say without a doubt that corruption and denial are at the root of Italy's problems. Corruption from top to bottom of society which is difficult to exaggerate and which from a British perspective is almost impossible to comprehend - and denial of its existence.
Can you imagine in Britain being required to pay 20% of the price of your house on the black, or half of your rent? These aren't Politicians, Judges or Police doing this. But Politicians, Judges and Policemen do have to buy or rent their homes too, and the system is the same for them.
Can you imagine dentists offering discounts for cash payments just so they can pocket the VAT and not declare large amounts of their income for tax? Can you imagine it being normal for local politicians to be in the pockets of crooked businessmen just so that public money can be diverted into useless local public works and pointless road alteration schemes?
If you can imagine Italian Politics as a lot of pigs fighting to get their snouts into the trough of public money, then you can imagine the nature of most Italian politicians.
Can you imagine, in a democracy, allowing someone who own the means of communication to stand for political office? Even worse, can you imagine knowingly voting for such a person in the knowledge that their principal weapon is the denial of freedom of speech?
The sad thing is many Italians realise all this and desperately want to do something about it, but they are prevented by the inertia and insidious corruption of the Italian political system, and swamped by the short term self interest of an uninformed and misinformed Italian public.
Welcome to Italia.

  • 11.
  • At 08:07 AM on 15 Apr 2008,
  • David Barneby wrote:

The Italian people should realise the seriousness of Italy's National Debt. It is not a case of business as usual; whoever takes on the task as Prime Minister has an extremely difficult task ahead of him .
Italy could do with another Mussolini!!! At present Berlusconi is the best on offer.
How can you form a worthwhile government, when for a start the people can vote for around 150 parties? With proportional representation and coalition government, you have no political focus on the really important issues, there is a total divergence of policies, making it impossible to govern. The people then blame the Prime Minister of the day for his incompetence . Italy has to have a leader strong enough to pull it back on its feet again. I suspect that entering the Euro was thought to be a way of hiding the national debt and stabilising the economy.
Cooking the Books to make Italy qualify to join the single curency, was I believe one of the biggest mistakes in recent times. They should have the courage to return to the Lira. Italy has been ruined by joining the single curency!!!
If anybody can pull Italy out of the mire, a business man who has built his own empire, might be able to do it. People go on about corruption and half the polititions being corrupt. It is probably true , but every strata of Italian administration is riddled with corruption. Corruption is the way of life in Italy; people see it as expediency or opportunism , but in reality it's all the same. If the many factions making up the government would pull together in the same direction under Berlusconi's leadership, there might be some hope for Italy! I doubt it though and Italy will continue to muddle along from crisis to crisis. The people of Italy are their own worst enemies, and deserve the government they get.

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