Of course, the Clintons might be right.
But they are finished anyway.
I know is probably dodgy but you do have to wonder whether the Democratic voters of Pennsylvania (Deer Hunters among them) might be preparing to take a rather adult decision and put the party out of its misery.
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I'm confused - in what sense do you mean HRC's comments are 'a big deal'if you think she's 'finished anyway'?
Interesting, I wonder if Obama becomes the candidate, then loses to McCain, whether Hillary may end up the candidate next time.
I take it that stories like this will confirm that the Clinton & Obama or Obama & Clinton dream ticket will not happen. I also get the impression that whichever does get the nomination will have to share the limelight with defeated opponent. I think McCain must think that Christmas has come early. I also think the Democrats must ask themselves whether Howard Dean was the right person to lead the party through the primary process. He may have helped energise the activist base 4 years ago but his party management is inept as this mess shows.
It is a big deal because it has a racist undertone that is becoming apparent in not only the remarks of Hillary, but Bill Clinton as well. Republicans in some cases are switching parties to vote for her in their primaries just to keep the turmoil going. Obama is not only cracking her 'firewall' in Pennsylvania, but also holds a big lead in North Carolina polls.
There's an old saying in American politics, Americans vote their pocketbooks. And the results of the poll indicate, it is as true as ever.
Barack Obama would be the first non White President. Hillary Clinton would be the first non-male President. Neither of them would be the first incompetent president. Neither of them has a clue about how to run the United States Executive Branch of government. They are weak on foreign policy and know almost nothing about econommics. McCain only looks good by comparison, he'd probably only rise to the level of mediocre. It's clear from his statements about the banking crisis related to the sub-prime lending fiasco that unlike the Federal Reserve, he failed to learn an important lesson of history in the aftermath of the great depression which has many parallels to the current circumstances. Letting the banks who hold the bad loans fail and those who bought houses they weren't financially qualified to buy become homeless could turn what might be into a mild recession into a long deep serious one, even a depression. Perhaps he should be called, McCoolidge.
BTW, this poll is inconclusive. The spread of two points being within the margin of error and the large number of undecided votes makes it too close to say which candidate is leading.
The notion that a still viable candidate should drop out of the race for the sake of party unity or because the press or public have tired of the process is not only absurd but anti-democratic. Hillary Clinton didn't come this far only to give up becasue she is a few steps behind. A lot can happen between now and the convention (not that I particularly support her.) Real wars and political battles don't usually fit neatly into the two hour format of a Hollywood movie. The race is far from over. People who don't like it should switch channels and you don't even have to get up from your chair these days to do it. Relief is just a click away.
The Superdelegates must sign up for
Obama now to put him over the top on
needed delegates to put the party out
of its misery.
Hillary Clinton is not qualified to be
president. Her recent lapses of memory & her poor judgement voting for the War in Iraq show that she suffers from serious lack of prudence, lack of foresight and lack of good judgement.
Justin,
Why any more dodgy then the general field of pollsters?
Their track record:
Self-published and self- selective, of course, but...
Check out Obama at College:
Salaam/Shalom, etc.
ed
I've been tracking the Polls for a while. Quinnipiac tends to be more consistent on the conservative side. That PPP poll underepresents the Older voting block (65 and over) which is quite important for a state like PA. The real number is likely something between Quinnipiac and Rasmussen. Though with the exception of one state (Ohio) Obama tends to outperform Quinnipiac.
Hillary seems more and more at risk of destroying not only her candidacy, but any chance she might have of being Leader of the Senate. Reading between the lines of Pelosi's statements, I'd be very surprised if Clinton were to get her support: I guess the question is whether Clinton will detonate an endorsement for Obama from the one of the big five (Dean, Pelosi, Reid, Gore, or Edwards), before either Pennsylvania or North Carolina by pushing her luck too far. What Obama should do now is up the spending race so that she exhausts her funds trying to keep up.
The next BIG endorsement?
Chuck Hagel was very complimentary about Obama on Charlie Rose, as well. Vying for a bi-partisan cabinet post?
Hagel on The Daily Show
Hagel Wouldn't Endorse a Dem ... Would He?
I hesitate to trust that poll... its dramatically different from any others that have come up, both now, and during its last poll (no other poll gave Clinton a 26% lead in the last 2 weeks) sure its interesting to see these numbers, but I can't bring myself to trust a poll that is A) not from a well-known polling agency and B) So incongruent with all others.
That said, I appreciate you posting it Justin, and acknowledging its dodgyness
Justin,
Probably the best polling group this election are SurveyUSA, and their figures this week for Pennsylvania are 53-41 in favour of Clinton. That is a 7-point gain for Obama off of their polling previous, and there is scope for that to continue, but I would take any current polling that shows a neck-and-neck battle with a hefty pinch of salt.
For Obama, to get the difference down to 5-10 per cent would be quite a remarkable achievement given Clinton's lead there up till now. It would probably be enough to retain a sizeable delegate lead after North Carolina and Indiana too.
can you trust a polling company who can't even get the number correct in their own documents.
They say:
Voting Obama: 45%
Voting Clinton: 43%
Undecided: 13%
Total = 101%....oops.
It appears Hillary has run out of steam and the contest will be over after North Carolina when sufficient superdelegates line up behind Obama to kill any hope. The Florida Michigan delegates will have hotel rooms and participate in the party but have no effect on the outcome. The only real question now is the identity of the VP, who must be a man of considerable authority and respect closer to the political center. Gore could clinch it, and would have a much greater role than previously. The Clintons are history and I have no doubt they will not assist Obama in his campaign for President.
Hi Justin I was just wondering if it is true that former President Carter is planning to endorse Obama and if so does his endorsement help bring the process nearer to an end?
Plus, what's dodgy about the poll? An interesting finding from the poll: the most likely profile of a respondent to the poll is a white middle-age-to-elderly woman. And yet Clinton is behind. Makes ya think, dunnit, Justin?
Your hurried little sentences make my blood boil. First of all, there's no "misery." Clinton and Obama are two extremely competent candidates, and we should let the race continue until every state has voted.
Secondly, the gossip regarding Bill Richardson is not a "big deal." Nobody is going to the polls in the remaining states thinking about what the New Mexico governor says or said about Obama.
Justin - I really enjoy your blog and your perspective on the US presidential race. However, your views on the supposed "suffering" of the Democratic party is wildly overstated.
This has been a close and sometimes contentious primary, but the election is a full 7 months away and I believe amends will be made by then. Let's look at some other things this primary season has shown. Democratic voters are very excited about this election. They have come out in triple the numbers of the Republican voters. The Democrats have shattered every fundraising record, and Democratic party registration is through the roof!
Speaking of Pennsylvania, total Democratic registration is up more than 4% since last November and over 11% since 2004. Democrats are now over 50% of registered voters in that state. Republican numbers dropped by 1% this year to below 39%.
So, this weakened and suffering Democratic party is out-raising, out-voting and out-registering our opponent by HUGE margins. We have two strong candidates, the energy, enthusiasm and money. The American people favor us on the issues and the party "brand". So please, enough with the short-sighted doom & gloom 7 months from the general election. If anything, this primary season has shown a weakened, dejected and despondent Republican party.
Only one candidate didn't buy the lies about why we were going to Iraq. One other candidate did what was politically expedient at the time (shock and surprise), and the third believes lying about war causality is necessary to motivate a child-like public (shock and surprise, again.)
Bill and Hillary are suggesting that the two candidates most likely to win are the ones that least represent the publics' need for honesty.
So why should I vote for either of those
"Winners"?
Justinβs wishful and unequivocal statement βthey are finishedβ brings to mind Churchillβs response to the French, who had said that in three weeks, England would have her neck wrung like a chicken. His retort, applicable to Mrs Clinton, βSome chicken --- some neck!β
Bill may be risking his status as an 'elderly' statesman. Even if Hillary wins the nomination, he might have lost so much of the natural affection of his admirers.
He seems to be over-compensating Hillary for standing by him through the painful patch at the White House. Understandably so, but it is bleeding the party...
NATO to back missile defense
Most Czechs against U.S. radar base - poll
"Prague- Two thirds of Czechs oppose the plans to station a U.S. missile defence radar base in the Czech Republic, a poll by the CVVM public opinion research centre reveals ... "
Two-thirds opposition ... yet the government does as it pleases. Which country am I in?
I teach in Plzen, a large University town in Western Bohemia, about 60k from the proposed radar site, home to Skoda ... and of course ... beer. No one I know is in favor of the base, businessman or student, as it violates a central tenet of the post-soviet Czech constitution, a dearly held popular principle: that no foreign army shall ever again establish a presence in the Czech Republic. Not German, never, never, NEVER Russian ... and not American.
Plzen, the most prosperous city in the Czechlands, is host to an extraordinary annual celebration ... American GIs return every May to celebrated VE Day and visit friends. You may find a Patton museum in Plzen, along with an enormous monument at the city crossroads, a plaza, really, THANKING AMERICA in enormous gold letters for liberating Plzen from the Nazis. Down the street, less than 100 yards, is the "Velky" (Big) Synagogue, third largest in the world ... now a concert hall and art gallery. The Nazis were very efficient in Plzen.
At my local, a tattered picture of Jack Kennedy, hung beside a Navajo blanket. Czechs sing Dylan songs. Though they despise Bush, Czechs, like most Europeans in my experience, love American ideals. Transcendental America. Emerson's America.
Basically, the real question is, whether either democrat is a strong enough candidate to beat John McCain.
That is saying something, given the mood of the country.
How complicated could it get?
Tim Russert crunches numbers ... and hurts our heads! 269 red, 269 blue: president is decided by states/dem controlled congress = Dem president.
Richardson was my original candidate. He's respected, experienced, savvy ... and a true gentleman.
Obama and Richardson, no matter how the media contorts them, are both centrist, progressive, intelligent, notoriously bi-partisan and fervently opposed to Bush/McCain war policies.
Perfect ticket.
can you trust a polling company who can't even get the number correct in their own documents.
They say:
Voting Obama: 45%
Voting Clinton: 43%
Undecided: 13%
Total = 101%....oops.
------------
Have you ever heard of rounding?
To Alex R: if Obama loses against Clinton then I expect you might see Gore step up: reading betweeen his lines, that is what he has been saying ... not this time, but if you lose ...
And to Greta, I agree: Obama knows he needs Richardson, and apart from anything else, it would seriously put Texas into play: McCain would be left defending New Mexico, Colorado, Texas, even his own state of Arizona, and hoping he could attack California: the election battle would move away from the Central-East to republican country.
How good is this extended Democratic Primary? How much exposure are both candidates getting, drowning any chance of McCain making the headlines. There is no such thing as bad publicity and whichever candidate wins they will be an established part of american life come the election.
As to a "dream" ticket, I remember what happened with the last "dream" ticket and franly I think that the loser would rather a Senate Leader position with a view to run for presidency in 4 years time.
As a Native American (indigenous peoples) I can't support the candidacy of Barack Obama.. His call for change is hollow and shallow...He tries to court the votes of minorities besides African-
Americans..Yet he has ignored the Spanish and Native American constituencies and is gambling on the bet of his color for him to be elected....I would vote McCain if he does get the Democratic nomination...He has not even tried to shed light on the issues of
Native Americans and Spanish Americans as much as he should have. Hillary Clinton has my vote!