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What next?

• Justin Webb
• 23 Apr 08, 11:29 PM GMT

DavidGinsberg makes an important point about American irony: it is uncommon and because of that all the more enjoyable when found. is plainly political.

Alec_Ryrie is kind enough to enough to credit me with special powers. But the Pennsylvania figure was predictable. I still believe Obama will win because the electibility argument - while legitimate and marginally persuasive - cannot overrule the democratic argument in a party that has lived through the 2000 election. But I am less than 100% sure.

I talked to Democratic neutral bigwig Tad Devine a short while ago and he is convinced that although she has a huge task, she COULD win.

Ed Iglehart and others are looking into the vexed question of whether or not she is ahead in the popular vote. is interesting - this is the correspondent who claims to have been lied to about Obama's smoking so they'd better be careful.

The fact that even is so complex and divisive is further evidence, should evidence be needed, of the weirdness of this primary season.

Meanwhile my Clinton fundraising friend, recently semi-employed, is .

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Clinton's scrappiness

• Justin Webb
• 23 Apr 08, 06:36 AM GMT

Are people charmed by Mrs Clinton's scrappiness? Impressed by her inability to die? , I see, with the paper apparently unendorsing its candidate in no uncertain terms.

Up the I95 freeway, the Boston Globe is sticking with its Obama endorsement unmoved by the New York senator's Pennsylvania bounce. If it is a bounce. It certainly allows her to stay in the race without being laughed out of court, however horrified is the New York Times. This is on what has happened.

Ultimately the case she is making to the superdelegates is that her people, her Democrats, won't vote for Obama - key groups will not back him and that is proved by Pennsylvania. Fred Barnes - is he now an admirer? - .

The point is that these Democrats only have to sit on their hands in a few key states and the party loses. But will they? This analysis from the ABC report on the exit polls is surely spot on:

"If Obama does win the nomination, a quarter of Pennsylvania Democrats voting today say they'd either support John McCain or sit out the contest entirely; if Clinton's the nominee, one in six said they'd either vote for McCain or sit it out. That, however, may indicate the heat of the Democratic contest more than it predicts the future; the question's akin to asking a quarreling couple what they'll be doing for Valentine's Day. It might end ugly - but they also may kiss and make up."

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