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Mental toughness

• Justin Webb
• 14 Mar 08, 10:08 PM GMT

Faced with the reality that nothing much is now going to change: that both Clinton and Obama will have realistic claims (well, alright: self-styled realistic claims) to be the nominee come 10 June and the formal end of the primary season, it comes down to mental toughness tempered by calculations about the all-important judgement of history. The AP has an interesting take on - but could not hear - the two having on the Senate floor this week.

The fact is that objective analysis does not necessarily end the matter, among even fair-minded people. No-one is fairer than Ron Brownstein, and yet he seems genuinely conflicted: "If Obama runs well, he seems more likely than Clinton to assemble a big majority and trigger a Democratic sweep - not only by attracting independents and crossover Republicans but also by increasing turnout among African-Americans and young people. But if Obama stumbles, he could face a greater danger of fracturing the traditional Democratic coalition by losing seniors and blue-collar whites to McCain, principally on security issues. Clinton's reach across the electorate may not be as long, but her grip on her voters could be firmer."

The full piece is and well worth a look - the Pew finding that 30% of poorer white Democrats might ditch the party and go for McCain if Obama were the nominee is particularly eye-catching. Racism or educationism?

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