Night of political passion
WASHINGTON DC: This is a night that but will go down in history nonetheless. It is a night of political passion - a night of reinvigoration of the political muscles that have become so wasted during the Bush years.
Is it the night the Republican party - 1964 anyone? - stares into the abyss? It is the night the Democrats wonder whether it is sometimes possible to have too much of a good thing. It is the night that Hillary Clinton wonders where the money is going to come from now...
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Perhaps it is because the vote was essentially split in half on the Democratic side, but it is refreshing to not have to hear
> "If the results say I lost, then
> the other side MUST HAVE cheated!".
With the Republican nominee certain to be Sen McCain, it should concentrate minds on the other side--
> will skin colour and inexperience
> turn less people off, or will gender do?
> will oratory persuade more people,
> or will record do?
The answers obviously vary. (And if anybody knew beforehand, they would have known about yesterday, and elections would be but a formality.)
Nonetheless, The Democrats remain as their own greatest enemy.
In every election since 1984, it was when they bothered to persuade that they won (1992 and 1996), and it was when they were confident that they invariably lost (all else, especially 2000 and 2004).
Based upon Obama's speech, I think Hillary should be more relaxed...maybe draw more funds??? Obama's speech was full of pathos and saying "nothing" except 'we can change...', again and again.
At least Hillary took the opportunity to give a more "presidential" style speech.
Still...very close call either way!
Many things strike me about these primary elections... especially given that they are only picking a candidate to run!
1. the level of turnout
2. the engagement with the process
3. the amazing strength of American democracy
It would be incredible to have such levels of involvement in the UK.
Could the Republicans hold the White House? If they pick McCain to run and he is up against Hillary, surely the "anyone but Hillary" vote would galvanise enough Republicans. Do Americans really want to continue with dynastic presidencies (Bush, Clinton, Bush,Clinton)that are almost akin to royalty? With Obama so inexperienced will the US voters trust him against McCain?
Any other Republican candidate and it's a shoe in for any of the Democratic contendors.
With the vast majority of results in I'll review my predictions as I said I would - so here goes.
Prediction
Alabama HRC - 47 BHO 49 - BHO by 2
Result
HRC - 42 BHO 56 - MISS - outside accepted limits - checked the exit polls and the skew of the black vote is even more apparent here than South Carolina - in the high 80s for some age brackets. Delegates are not all allocated yet though and somehow (like Nevada) the loser is actually ahead in delegates.
Prediction
Arizona HRC - 54 BHO 40 - HRC by 14
Result
Arizona HRC - 51 BHO 42 - HIT - just within acceptable limits - a slight overestimation of the split in the Latino vote explains this - I had Clinton picking up 4 to 1 - it is probably nearer 3 to 1. I'll adjust this for future predictions.
Prediction
California HRC - 53 BHO 41 - HRC by 12
Result
HRC - 52 BHO 41 - HIT - am I pleased with this!! I was mocked elsewhere for predicting this margin - I feel rather smug now!!
Prediction
Colorado HRC - 52 BHO 48 - HRC by 4
Result
HRC - 32 BHO 67 - MISS - and a bad one at that - problem of trying to predict from a poll almost 2 weeks before an election (last one was Jan 23). Moreover, it seems clear that the Latino vote did not back Clinton as in other Far West states.
Prediction
Connecticut HRC - 50 BHO 44 - HRC by 6
Result
HRC - 47 BHO 51 - MISS - another state where it was difficult to make a prediction based on polls that were all over the place. Clinton's vote is just within accepted bounds - as with Delaware Obama appears to have picked up floating Edwards supporters.
Prediction
Delaware HRC - 49 BHO 45 - HRC by 4
Result
HRC - 43 BHO 53 - MISS - given I only had one poll to work with that is not surprising - that poll had HRC on 44 and BHO on 42 - Clearly BHO has been the big gainer from Edwards withdrawal. A small state that was always going to be difficult to predict.
Prediction
Georgia HRC - 37 BHO 58 - BHO by 21
Result
Georgia HRC - 31 BHO 67 - NEAR HIT - this is very similar to Alabama although not on the same scale - I did build in a skewing effect of the black vote - just not enough - the voting here reaches 95% amongst some black age groups - unheard of. I had BHO 9% ahead of polls with HRC virtually static - picking up a fraction of the undecided's and Edwards votes. But it seems that this is one of the few states where she has haemorrhaged her own votes.
Prediction
Illinois HRC - 42 BHO 53 - BHO by 11
Result
Illinois HRC - 33 BHO 65 - MISS - Obama was always going to win but by how much it was difficult to know - one state (along with Georgia) that he not only picked up the undecided's and Edwards votes but also HRC votes as well.
Prediction
Massachusetts HRC - 56 BHO 38 - HRC by 18
Result
Massachusetts HRC - 56 BHO 41 - HIT - spot on with HRC's share - BHO is within accepted bounds. I'm reasonably pleased with this prediction.
Prediction
Minnesota HRC - 51 BHO 44 - HRC by 7
Result
Minnesota HRC - 32 BHO 67 -MISS - way out but then so was the only poll available to analyse - reminds me of the Iowa result - caucuses I feel are often far more difficult to predict than normal votes.
Prediction
Missouri HRC - 47 BHO 47 - tie - too close to call
Result
HRC - 48 BHO 49 - HIT - pleased with this prediction - within accepted bounds of accuracy.
Prediction
New Jersey HRC - 53 BHO 41 - HRC by 12
Result
HRC - 54 BHO 44 - HIT - almost spot on with HRC's share - BHO is within accepted bounds. I'm reasonably pleased with this prediction.
Prediction
New York HRC - 57 BHO 38 - HRC by 19
Result
HRC - 57 BHO 38 - HIT - spot on with HRC's share - BHO is within accepted bounds. Feeling rather smug as many had it a lot closer than this!!
Prediction
Oklahoma HRC - 59 BHO 36 - HRC by 23
Result
HRC - 55 BHO 31 - NEAR HIT - got the margin correct but it was always going to be difficult to predict the numbers still committed to Edwards. That being said - he picked up zero delegates and the share between HRC and BHO does work out surprisingly close to my figures.
Prediction
Tennessee HRC - 54 BHO 40 - HRC by 14
Result
HRC - 54 BHO 41 - HIT - pleased with this prediction - within accepted bounds of accuracy.
Prediction
Utah HRC - 59 BHO 35 - HRC by 14
Result
Utah HRC - 39 BHO 57 - MISS AND PART HIT - How? Well I just double-checked my spreadsheet and realised that I input the figures the wrong way round - do I feel stupid or what? If the figures are reversed then I have underestimated Clinton's vote and slightly overestimated Obama's. But I'm honest I'll out it in the MISS column for my sheer stupidity!!
Overall Predictions
HITS/NEAR HITS - 9
MISSES - 7 (including the Utah result I got the wrong way round)
State winner correct - 11
State winner wrong - 5 (including the Utah prediction I got the wrong way round)
Allowing for my Utah muck-up - not bad but could do better.
Message is that in smaller states don't trust the polls. Also the spread of the Latino vote is variable and not uniform across the country.
The true victor of the day is democracy. High turnouts, and true passion after so much apathy and cynicism. This time, to our great relief, the post-vote debates are about the candidates and the electorate, and not improper voting procedures.
It seems reasonably clear to me, as it did from the outset, that Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic Party nomination. Despite some surges in support for Obama she has always led in the polls, had more delegates elected than him before Tuesday, increased her lead on Tuesday and is firmly ahead of Obama in polls in Texas and Ohio. She is clearly going to win. It isn't meant to be a harsh criticism (I quite enjoy the theatre too!) but it is surely quite obvious that the media has an interest in making this a 'tight' and 'exciting' race.
I'm thankful that nothing was decided for the Democrats. I live in Texas, and had been thinking last year, when Texas decided not to move its D primary night to 5-feb, that I'd get no say in which D candidate I would get to vote for in the presidential election. However, with an even split between Obama and Clinton last night, I will indeed get to have a say in March.
Obama's wins in Georgia, Alabama and elsewhere show that whatever the merits of his tag as a "post-racial" candidate, he can't escape the confining label of "black candidate." It's grossly unfair for a man with such apparently strong cross-cultural appeal, but this's America and race matters here. Perhaps some of Obama's non-black supporters have a sinister motive--to help him win the Democratic nomination and provide the Republicans with someone their nominee can easily beat in November.
Those older "white men" who are said to have voted for Obama in several Super Tuesday states could very well be Hillary-haters who don't want to see her face McCain or Romney in the general election. With the obvious huge odds against Obama, why do so many people in America persist in pretending that he can win a general election? Simple naivete doesn't adequately explain the phenomenon.
Barack Obama:
"Yes we can! Yes we can! Yes we can!"
Mitt Romney:
"They haven't! They haven't! They haven't!"
Mitt Romney (who, on reflection, I've reasoned should be allowed to spend his own money on campaigning as it is far better than being funded by special interest groups) needed to be more opptimistic.
People will always choose optimism over pessimism. It is the way of things.
Everyones saying about no-one caring what Britain thinks but I bet those poll numbers would rocket for Ron Paul if The Queen was to endorse him.
Justin,
A year or so ago, you did a piece for radio, 'From our own Correspondent' I think, in which you retold a conversation you'd had with your son.
From memory, the point that you were making was that you didn't think that America was ready to elect an African American President.
Although it hasn't happened yet, it seems a distinct possibility and I was wondering what your thoughts were now?
There are many reasons why OBAMA will gain more than CLINTON as a result of Super Duper Tuesday.
Firstly, two weeks ago Obama was only ahead in the polls in Illinois and Georgia, and he ended up winning 14 states. Thus he still has the momentum to do even better.
Justin Webb refers to Clinton winning the big prizes of New York and California. Democrats are likely to win these states anyway (as long as the Republican isn't from there).
The big prizes in this close race are actually the SUPERDELEGATE votes. Obama may end up getting more of those because they may be keener to vote the way their state did AND because they want to vote for the Democrat best placed to beat John McCain.
Well, that's my take on the events of yesterday.
Jeremy Twyman, Sheffield, UK
Every night "goes down in history" for that matter. There's a history to everyone and everything. Not just the rich and the powerful. There's a peoples history too, even though you'd never know it by the way commercial news is presented. But, it is of course, the rich and the powerful who have won again. Their interests, at home and abroad, are secure with any of the remaining rich candidates. If the '64 comparison is accurate, then it is America and the world that may be "staring into the abyss". Recall, that after his '64 landslide victory, Democrat LBJ escalted the Vietnam fiasco and launched a grandiose welfare program in a misguided "guns and butter" agenda. At that time ironically, opportunistic Hillary was a little Goldwater Girl. By '68, the country was in tumult and LBJ was forced to abdicate, opening the way for another Republican victory that year. The country -and the world- had had too much of the Democrats "good thing". So they leaped out of the frying pan and into the fire with Richard Nixon's crookedness for the following six years. And that's how the game is played. Two competing power blocks, Repub's and Dem's, taking turns enjoying the personal perk's while they ravage the world. They win, we lose.