EU set for tough bargaining
Images of summits are rarely memorable and usually dissolve into each other. Even the cliffhangers, the late-night rows, or those days when handbags were drawn fade quickly. will struggle to be memorable. But here is my guide to the next two days.
The main story will revolve around what can be gleaned about Tony Blair's chances to become the . It is not on the official agenda, but will be discussed informally over dinner on Thursday night. We might learn whether the leaders favour a "charismatic" president or a "less high-profile" chairman. In bilateral meetings names will be market-tested. Some leaders will hold briefings and we may know more about Blair's chances. Chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday night will hold a "fireside chat" with her national press and, of course, where she stands is critical to who will get the EU's big job.
The first session of the summit is devoted to . What to look out for here is whether the EU agrees on a figure to help the developing world cope with the impact of global warming. Watch out for Poland. They say they can't afford to help the developing world when they are struggling to cut emissions in their own coal-based economy. The Germans, too, may prefer not to put a figure on the plan until they get to the Copenhagen summit in December. Plenty of room here for a row. Certainly if the summit fails to put a financial figure on its plans then it will be seen as another setback for Copenhagen.
President Klaus of the Czech Republic will figure in discussions. He is the one man . He wants an opt-out from , to prevent property claims from Germans expelled from Czechoslovakia after the war. He'll probably be offered the opt-out, but the European leaders will be wary and will want a cast-iron guarantee from Prague that a signature will follow.
will surface again. Countries like Greece will be hoping for more "burden-sharing" from other countries. With nearly 21 million unemployed across Europe few countries will be willing to take in more migrants.
Then there is . Over eight million jobs are predicted to be lost in 2009. The leaders are likely to agree to retain the various stimulus packages until growth is more firmly established.
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