Weathering the economy
Not good. Not good at all.
The expectation was for sluggish, even anaemic, growth: not for a fall in output, a contraction of 0.5 per cent in the last three months of 2010 (Q4).
These figures are for the UK as a whole. Scotland's cycle is distinct - with the latest figures, for the third quarter of 2010 (Q3), showing a growth of 0.5 per cent in the economy.
And the next tranche of Scottish figures? Expect them around April 20. Yes, that's right, just before the scheduled date for the Holyrood elections.
Firstly, those UK figures.
Blame is being attached in some quarters to the severe winter weather. It is suggested this constrained consumer demand and economic activity.
Which, of course, was a factor considered by those forecasting the likely out-turn.
'Austerity programme'
They did not, however, expect a significant decline in construction in the UK figures. They did not anticipate a fall in output overall, despite the harsh meteorological climate.
Chancellor, George Osborne, says that he will not be deflected from his "austerity" programme with regard to public spending.
But, with the VAT increase just about to bite, there will be enhanced political pressure upon Mr Osborne to make growth a priority in his next Budget - perhaps through addressing issues such as business taxation and fuel duty.
To Scotland, next. The Finance Secretary, John Swinney, argues that the latest Scottish figures - which include a rise in construction - reflect "robust action" taken by ministers.
That is, of course, disputed by his opponents who say that it scarcely sits with, for example, the proposal to impose an additional levy upon large retailers in Scotland.
The UK growth figures will also reignite the debate over the impact of spending constraint - especially with the Scottish budget due to face its Stage One vote tomorrow.
Leadership contender
PS: A personal note of sympathy to the family of Phil Gallie who has died aged 71.
Phil was an MP and an MSP during his career: a leadership contender when Holyrood was first elected.
In both parliaments, he was a tireless and enthusiastic public servant - on the front bench, in committee, in open debate.
Much more than that, he was a good man: friendly, open and warm. A caring husband, father and grandfather.
He will be much missed.
I'm 
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