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Confident performance, but don't mention Iceland

Brian Taylor | 17:30 UK time, Sunday, 19 October 2008

This was a self-confident performance by the First Minister.

Tautological, I know, but noteworthy given the extent of the pressure upon Alex Salmond as a consequence of the economic crisis and, more specifically, the response by the UK Government.

On Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ Scotland, the Prime Minister had declared bluntly that Scotland, acting as an independent nation, would not have had the resources to mount the banking rescue.

It was a salient attack, delivered by a PM who has regained the status to command the attention and thus the ear of the voters. It was the first substantial challenge to Mr Salmond since he gained power at Holyrood.

To be frank, he and his colleagues appeared briefly discomfited. Alex Salmond has definitely now regrouped. That doesn't mean, of itself, that his arguments will be heeded or will find favour. But they were cogently and powerfully expressed.

Broadly, Mr Salmond argues that Gordon Brown's policies are partly responsible for the banking crisis; that he presided over an irresponsible expansion of unsustainable credit.

Further, he dismisses the assertion that only the clout of the UK Treasury could have mounted the banking rescue.

He notes that the money does not come from cash reserves but from borrowing and, further, that the terms imposed, for example, upon the Royal Bank of Scotland through preference shares should enable the Treasury to make a profit in the long-term by lending to the bank at a higher rate than that available in the market.

Still further, Mr Salmond argues that big countries as well as small ones have been caught up in the economic crisis - but that small, habitually prosperous countries like Norway have shown deftness in dealing with that crisis.

Don't mention Iceland, though. It may have been one of Mr Salmond's "arc of prosperity" comparators - but, now that its banking system is in turmoil, the SNP tends to disown that comparison, arguing that Iceland is tiny, smaller than the population of Edinburgh.

Whom will the voters heed? Depends, presumably, upon a range of factors: whom they blame for the economic mess, whom they thank for efforts to mitigate it and, most crucially, what happens to the real economy of jobs and mortgages.

It's a balancing act for Alex Salmond. He must counter-attack against Labour without giving the impression that he is sniping politically during a crisis.

But it's a balancing act for Labour too. Their case on the "Union dividend" has been strongly advanced. But party strategists know that it must not slip over into decrying Scotland as too wee or poor to govern herself. That, they know, would not be smart politics.

And there's more. The UK government is insisting tonight that Mr Salmond has missed the point: that the problem for HBOS is not capitalisation but liquidity. They say that the bank on its own would continue to struggle in the current market conditions.

Also in response to Mr Salmond, HBOS itself has stressed it believes the deal should go ahead. The bank said it believed that the merger would allow access to significant savings resources.

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