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If Assembly members and those who work with, or rely on, or simply watch them are ever tempted to think they could get away with just drifting through a term, they certainly won't be thinking it at the start of this term.

Of the 58 AMs heading back to Cardiff Bay - two are ill and unlikely to take their seats in the chamber for a while - there are some who know this is the beginning of the end. They have either made it clear already that they won't be fighting to retain their seats, or that they're heading to another place, wearing rather grander clothes, and certainly don't call each other by their Christian names. Or perhaps they know in their bones that it's going to be one heck of a fight to make it back to Cardiff Bay.

When there's an election a matter of months away, minds are concentrated. Spare a thought for support workers or press officers who might find themselves out of a job because the wheel has come off and they were only a small cog in it.

As one voice of doom pointed out to me last week if the Liberal Democrats fall from six seats to four, then they lose a press officer. If they return just two AMs - unlikely, I'd argue but not impossible - then that doesn't even constitute an Assembly Group. It's more a partnership, perhaps, or a duet, and those do not get the sort of money to which party groups are automatically entitled.

It's no cert that all four party leaders, the four who will stand side by side at Yes campaign events over the next few weeks, will make it through the test they face in May. Carwyn Jones and Ieuan Wyn Jones will feel relatively safe, but should the Conservatives take Montgomeryshire from the Liberal Democrats, Nick Bourne's regional seat will be more than shaky.

And should the Liberal Democrats feel the wrath of those voters who gave them the chance to gain power in Westminster and now wish they'd cast their votes elsewhere, and should the Lib Dems lose Brecon and Radnorshire too, then their leader won't be coming back to Cardiff Bay.

I'm not, as those of you who read this blog know, a great one for predictions. Who knows where May will leave us. That, after all, is entirely up to you. But I'm not alone in suspecting that One Wales Two feels very much on the cards. If you've spent any time listening to Carwyn Jones recently, he's made it as clear as anyone with a bargain to strike is likely to, that he doesn't want to lead a minority government. Could Labour win a clear majority in May? Yes, but it's more a possibility than a probability.

So if you're a useful Labour strategist, you're thinking - what would happen if you just missed that target. Is a deal with the Lib Dems even a possibility? If Rhodri Morgan thought a Lab Lib deal unpalatable - inedible in the event - after the last election, then how would Carwyn Jones ask his party to swallow such a deal after this one. After all the Lib Dems have struck quite a different bargain, to promote a quite different set of priorities in Westminster.

What about sticking with the familiar then? One Wales Two. Now, surely we're talking probabilities. Even Peter Hain, not an early fan of the red-green coalition, described it last week as having been a "huge success".

What's in it for Labour?

A rock solid majority.

An enviably clear run at delivering a programme of Government with which you're entirely at ease.

A clear conscience when you point an accusatory finger at the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives at Westminster.

The warm glow that comes with seeing your own party gaining ground in the polls while your coalition partner's support is solid but not growing inexorably in government.

And so to Plaid. What might Plaid want from One Wales Two? Now there is a question.

What is there beyond the obvious - another term in government, to put a distance between Plaid and 82 years in opposition?

How about another chance to prove they have it in them?

But their top, long held ambitions went into One Wales Mark One - a Convention leading to a referendum on further powers, the Holtham Commission on funding, legislation supporting the Welsh language, and a Welsh language daily newspaper that never quite made it when reality hit home.

So if they get the chance, what goes on the wish-list next time?

Would the devolution of policing, and parts of the justice system be there or thereabouts? Broadcasting?

As I say, they may never get the chance, but if you're a useful Plaid strategist, what are you thinking?

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