Back from London and off now for a few days (shamelessly flogging CDs ... ) I'll resume the blogging on Monday.
Richard Harries may be glad to know I'm typing this from the study, rather than Peter Hain's cellar.
P.S. Yesterday's sermon had some effect. Radio 5 have just called to check whether a story has relevance to Wales or not. As the bit of the ΒιΆΉΤΌΕΔ that came up with "the UK and Wales" the other week, I regard that as a huge step forward.
If you missed The Politics Show you'll have missed Secretary of State Peter Hain making it searingly clear that whille he's 'devo-friendly' (a term Nick Bourne used in the same programme) he does not believe that the Welsh Labour Party or Wales will be ready for a referendum 'during this Assembly term'.
No surprises there perhaps but pretty bluntly put at the end of the week Rhodri Morgan came out with the opposite view. So when I'm in London on Monday briefing my colleagues on 'where we're at in Welsh politics' and they ask whether there'll be a referendum - or not - before 2011 is out, what do I say? Yes unless they bottle it? Or yes, unless they realise that doing the right thing is bottling it?
By the way I spent yesterday at St Augustine's Church in Penarth where the choir - Cordydd - was launching its CD of John Rutter's Requiem (bargain at Β£12.98.) I'm the third alto from the right.
There were two highlights during last night's concert: hearing star soprano - and stunning Requiem solosit - Elin Manahan Thomas singing the Pie Jesu. It was effortless and remarkable.
The second was hearing her mother saying that she never misses an installment of this blog. Mrs Thomas: you and your daughter made my day.
Kevin Brennan's family must be delighted.
Just as Dad, the UK Children's Minister, announces that the goverment has ruled out a complete ban on smacking children, Wales' Deputy Minister for Health and Social Services, Gwenda Thomas has said legal discussions are still underway to work out whether the Assembly could go ahead and ban smacking under powers it's seeking from Westminster.
She made it pretty clear that she hopes so.
So Brennan junior, if your Dad ever invites you on a day-trip to ... well anywhere over the Severn Bridge, think twice!
My name is Betsan.
I'm 42.
I'm a Welsh speaker.
I moved back from London to Cardiff so that my children could more easily be brought up speaking both Welsh and English.
Seeing as how the ΒιΆΉΤΌΕΔ is in Truth and Reconciliation mood, I thought I should come clean, declare and interest and tell you I'm ... bilingual.
Now whether you are or not, you may like to know that Radio 4 (not known for showing a huge interest in Wales as I'm told through gritted teeth nearly every week) are making a programme about the Welsh language. Good. Fertile territory for a debate and a good one to have on a programme that'll be heard outside Wales. is broadcast tonight.
A bit of the programme was broadcast on Today this morning. It kicked off with something like this:
(Reporter, in whispered tones): "Right, I've pulled into a quiet country lane. Is it safe to talk about the language here?"
Yes, really.
Anonymity wasn't enough. The interviewee, a Welsh-speaking public sector worker who doesn't think the Welsh language should be promoted, would only be interviewed if he was taken far from prying eyes and straining ears to 'a quiet country lane'. That's what I gathered anyway. Why else conduct the interview up a quiet country lane after all.
All very 'jaw jaw lost the war' or job in this case. He spoke very eloquently, as did Kate Williams, "who is a lawyer and speaks Welsh".
Not that she appears on the programme. Maybe she wasn't asked or maybe her mother told her never to accept an invitation to drive up a quiet country lane with a stranger, especially one with a microphone. But she did speak to Today and raised plenty of issues around the language.
Are people afraid - especially in the public sector - to speak out for fear of damaging their careers?
Do people want their children to learn Welsh simply because they think they won't get good jobs otherwise?
Let's see what the programme concludes tonight. Fear doesn't make for a healthy debate after all - so let's have one on Analysis.
P.S. You're welcome to make a virtual quiet country lane of my blog any time.
How do you get a response out of the BMA?
They put out a strongly-worded press release today claiming that health budgets are "robbed to run Assembly." In other words why should Β£40 million pounds from the Welsh block grant go on running the Assembly, rather than be spent on frontline services?
They are, of course, right that the money to run this place comes from the block grant. It always has. The same is true in Scotland. The Scottish Parliament's revenue budget for 2007/08 (running costs, staff and MSP salaries/ allowances) is Β£71.3 million. That, too, is taken from Mr Barnett's block grant, even though that grant is a proportion of money spent on services in England.
But why raise the issue today?
No response.
I try again. Are they following the lead of Adam Price MP who's been covering the same territory in the Western Mail today?
It takes around 2 minutes 30 seconds for the phone to ring.
"Certainly not! We're taking the lead on this! In fact the idea to raise it came from ... "
Let's just say it wasn't Adam Price but another (in this case former) politician who always seemed to know how to make it into the pages of the Western Mail.
The First Minister is unmoved. Well actually his eyes moved rather dramatically towards the heavens when I asked him what he made of their complaint. "Have they only just worked it out?" was the gist of it from Mr Morgan.
"It's an overhead of the business of running Wales" says the man whose glass office looks like the territory of a man who oversees the business of running Wales.
Incidentally Lord Elis-Thomas was called something very unparliamentary in the chamber this afternoon. An angry Eleanor Burnham wasn't called to speak on the issue of funding hospices and made her views on the Presiding Officer known, just that little bit too loudly. He heard; those who make a record of proceedings didn't.
"You didn't, did you Eleanor?"
"Well he IS".
This afternoon Labour backbencher Lesley Griffiths AM wants to ask the First Minister to "make a statement on progress in establishing an all-Wales convention on further powers for the Assembly."
I'm getting the increasing feeling (despite the denials adn the blanking we got yesterday) that is what some might call an "inspired" question - in other words someone whispered in her ear that it was a good question to ask.
If you're marking the passing of a 100 days since you formed a government, wouldn't you think today was the perfect day to make an announcement about that convention? A chair perhaps?
And I notice Peter Hain is far away in America. Aaah. Now I'm convinced they're going for it.
Update:
It's Sir Emyr Jones Parry, the UK's former ambassador to the UN. The job that needs such an experienced diplomat? To chair the convention that will carry out the groundwork for a vote in 2011.
Now we get the chance to ask Nick Bourne - diplomatically - if he already knew that ...
Update: He didn't. "That's very different to the way Rhodri used to behave" But on the appointment itself? Excellent. And for what it's worth I'd be surprised if you heard anyone saying otherwise.
What's this? (And no, it's not the joke about the peep-peep-peep of the English Rugby Team's open-top bus reversing back into the garage.)
It can be laid. In fact it's being laid this very afternoon. It's small, or compact perhaps. Crack it open and you'll find something curious inside. Someone, somewhere is going to work on it as I write.
I'm talking about the Finance Committee's report on the NHS Redress (Wales) Measure, or as we like to put it, the very first new Welsh law that's been brought forward by the Government. Their conclusions are pretty brutal and to the point.
"The Committee's judgement is that it cannot reliably assess the impact of the proposed NHS Redress Measure. It concludes that it has little alternative but to recommend that the stage one debate on the general principles of the Measure is not brought forward until the Committee, and by implication Assembly Members generally, have had an opportunity to consider the better estimate of costs that will flow from the work currently underway".
In other words - go away, do your sums, come back with something more robust and then we'll look at it again. Oh and Assembly Members are going to want a go at this one and they'll be nastier than we've been.
This is the very first Welsh law. The power to enact legislation is, as the First Minister himself put it back in June, "one of the major distinguishing features of this third Assembly ... When we enact a Measure, it has the same force as primary legislation. It is measure with a capital M'.
Getting a capital E for effort from the Finance Committee (with its majority of 6 Labour/Plaid members) is not a particularly distinguished start.
Just to let you know that Mohammed Asghar, the Plaid Cymru AM who is travelling with Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan is shaken but unhurt after the suicide bombings in Karachi.
I understand he was travelling with the party when the bombs went off but it seems as though the bombers killed and injured innocent bystanders standing on the roadside, rather than those inside the coaches.
There'll be more on Good Morning Wales and Post Cyntaf.
In London yesterday where I was greeted by a bright poster in the lift at TV Centre which said "ΒιΆΉΤΌΕΔ: Developing a Creative Future". Someone had scrawled out the last three words and added " ... your P45s".
I'm watching the Controller, Mark Thompson as I write. He's talking to us on the ringmain, pitching his plans for the ΒιΆΉΤΌΕΔ for the next five years. What are they?
A smaller than fought for licence fee settlement means a smaller ΒιΆΉΤΌΕΔ; less money on concrete, more on content; fewer programmes - a cut of 10% in the number of programmes commissioned - but what he's cutting is the 'middling' output. More landmarks, more impact, fewer also-rans ... more repeats; more opportunities to access what we do via gadgets that are more techy than the tv in the corner and the radio on the sideboard. And all this with the biggest 'fewer' of all: fewer staff.
The Trustees (your representatives as licence fee payers) say this is what you want: innovative broadcasting that is relevant to you and easier to access. (I wonder if you want Jonathan Ross to get that much money ... but you do want Jonathan Ross and he doesn't want to come cheap so there you go.)
How many jobs are going? 2500, though that word 'redeployment' is looming large. Post closures may be down to 1800. Which 1800? Ahhh. That's the bit we don't yet know.
What does this mean for ΒιΆΉΤΌΕΔ Wales? We get to find that out within the next half an hour or so.
There was a line from Mark Thompson about 'moving production out to the nations'. Good, I thought, just before thinking that I don't really know what that means. And where does the Political Unit's work appear on the flowchart of 'landmark' to 'middling' output? I'm brave enough to ask. You're welcome to comment. I think.
Will we hear from the politicians on this today? The most shocking news of all is - wait for it - Chris Bryant MP turned down a chance to appear on Good Morning Wales. What is the ΒιΆΉΤΌΕΔ coming to?
Update:
You'll have heard/seen/read enough about this by now but here are the bare bones: 25-35 redundancies in the first two years at ΒιΆΉΤΌΕΔ Wales, with a potential total of 145-155 redundancies in Wales over the full five year period.
What's our staffing level now? 1,289
Two thoughts:
Sir Michael Lyons, the Chair of the Trustees was on Newsnight last night, Breakfast News this morning, as well as News 24. We'd hoped to hear from the National Trustee for Wales today but were told she felt this was a day for Mark Thompson and his staff, not for the Trustees, to talk. Really? Seems no-one passed on that message to Sir Michael.
Will an emphasis in future on delivering more local services be bad for political reporting? No, clearly not. If it means more good journalists based in more places around Wales, seeing, hearing and reporting politics far from Cardiff Bay, it can only be good. Just note the 'if'.
Does a vegetarian make a worse Agriculture Minister than a carnivore?
Does a woman make a better member of the Children and Young People Committee than a man?
Does a mother make a better member of the Children and Young Peopel Committee than a father?
The parties in the Assembly seem to think so.
This afternoon there's a motion before plenary to elect the Children and Young People Committee.
The remit? To consider and report on issues affecting children and young people in Wales. Given child poverty is going to be at the heart of this government's policy making over the next few years, then this committee will have its work cut out. It'll have to consider reports by the Children's Commissioner. It'll be expected to examine government expenditure and policy and keep an eye on what other public bodies are doing too.
Which names have been put forward? Alun Cairns? Father of Henri and such a committed Dad I even spotted him dancing to Martin Geraint songs on the field of the National Eisteddfod. (If you don't have the CD, I can tell you that goes well, well beyond the call of duty. Ours is worn out ...)
How about Huw Lewis? Another Dad who was in and out of the creche to check up on his children at Labour's Llandudno conference earlier this year, frontline campaigner to improve the lot of children.
No, and no again. In fact Dads need not apply, let alone men.
The five are Lynne Neagle, Christine Chapman, Helen Mary Jones, Angela Burns and Eleanor Burnham.
Five good women, I know but just imagine if all five proposed members were men.
What's the value of an Assembly Member?
Priceless? Not a lot guv? You might have your own ideas but the official answer is Β£1000 a head.
Last month I brought you the story of plans to pay party whips and extra Β£1000 for every member in their group. Others have picked up on the story more recently. To recap: Carl Sargeant would pocket Β£26,000, Chris Franks Β£15,000, William Graham Β£12,000 and Kirsty Williams an useful Β£6000. Useful and rather embarrassing because it would mean she took home more than her boss. Sadly for Trish Law she's not a group, so no cash.
I offered a way out. Yes, inter-party relations are more complex in a coalition; the new powers make it vital that things run smoothly. All hard work. So surely the plan was to use the money to pay for secretarial support for the poor whips, just as they've done in Northern Ireland?
No. Apparently it's plan A. Let's give them the money.
Today I got to read the 'Risk Assessment' that's been prepared for the Assembly Commission who meet on Wednesday and who must decide whether the whips get their wad. In it the Commission is warned that there "would appear to be a reputational risk in that the public perception of the Assembly could be damaged by negative media reporting ... without an independent recommendation. There is also a financial risk in setting any salary at a level higher than that which might be eventually recommended by a review'.
There was also a note telling the Commission that this "would be a new departure for the Assembly" and "outside UK practice".
Nick Bourne and Mike German say they were not asked by Rhodri Morgan whether they supported the idea. They say his letter to the Presiding Officer claiming there is "consensus" and that the idea has "gained general endorsement" is "astounding" and "disgraceful". They both believe the independent review of AMs' salaries, which will report in February, should be left to sort this one out.
Were they asked? The First Minister's camp are indicating that "as far as they knew it" the Conservatives were on board. (The Tory whip, William Graham, is on the Commission by the way.)
What about the Lib Dems? Were they part of this 'consensus'? Mmmm, no. But "ultimately this is a matter for the Commission to determine".
Someone's not communicating very well with their colleagues. What shall we do ... pay them a bit more?
We've been told to expect an announcement about Ming Cambpell's future within the next half an hour.
To lose one leader is a misfortune.
To lose two looks like carelessness.
To lose three ... looks like the Lib Dems are in real trouble?
Apologies to those of you who are trying to post comments and getting error messages for your trouble. I've asked for 'technical support'. In other words I've shouted HELP very loudly. I'll keep you posted.
The Tigger of Welsh politics bounced into this morning's lobby briefing in fighting form.
Mike German has just put himself in prime position to bag himself an extra job - taking over from Lembit Opik as THE leader of the Welsh Lib Dems, caped crusader for the 'non-Socialist radical alternative', Master of that (rather tight) space between left and right known as 'our own turf' - and along comes this morning's Western Mail and ages him by 5 years.
Actually he just asked rather nicely if they'd put it right next time but he did try quite hard to be stern.
The 62 year old Mr German has three weeks to wait until all nominations for the leader's job have to reach the Returning Officer and then, let's face it, he gets it. What happens then? He rather enjoys himself until next May or "as soon as sensible and practicable after next year's elections" when he steps down from both jobs. By then some poor soul will have tinkered with the party's constitution (again) and both jobs will become one.
He may like to save up his pension (on paper anyway) and take it to our virtual bookie and take a punt on who'll take over next year. Karl Williams never hears a starting gun fired without coming up with odds. So here we go:
Kirsty Williams: 6-5 favourite
'She's my favourite but she's not way out ahead. She may look the obvious choice but I reckon Jenny Randerson with all her experience, Mike's protege and all that, could push her hard'.)
Jenny Randerson: 7-4 (short second favourite)
Peter Black: 7-2
('If I was actually in the office taking money he's the one I'd be carious about. He's not afraid to speak his mind and the radicals might think he's what they want. He's the sort of guy who could do something for the Lib Dems ... in a strange sort of way')
Eleanor Burnham: 6-1
(Sorry Eleanor but he just can't see it ...)
Mick Bates: 16-1
('I know he doesn't want it and wouldn't go for it but there's only 6 of them so he may find someone's thrown his hat into the ring. Technically he's a runner')
You seem pretty ummoved by Lib Dem politics. In fact from checking the number of online 'hits' on Thursday last week it seems that you're pretty ummoved by politics as a whole.
3,700 of you clicked on our story; 15,029 were rather more taken by . I don't know yet how many rushed to read about Mike German's future but I'm guessing the answer is not that many. You may not be that bothered but the party must be - and until Mike German persuades you that 'marking out our own turf' really means something, until he makes that group of 6 Assembly Members work out exactly where they want the party to be and agree on a credible way of getting there, ordinary party members must surely continue to be very, very bothered.
From Aberystwyth - where I am not - comes the news that Lembit Opik is to stand down as Welsh leader of the Lib Dems. He's surrounded by well-wishers as we speak, all taken aback by his announcement and no doubt pleased this particular goodbye wasn't 'leaked' to Hello.
The way ahead, in his view, is to get rid of the job altogether, or at least to amalgamate the Welsh leader's job - his -with that of the Assembly group leader - Mike German's. That surely has to make sense.
My colleague tells me there was a pointed reference in the outgoing leader's speech to a plan to spend more time in Montgomeryshire. I wonder just how much has to do with Lembit's hiraeth for 'home'.
A post Good Morning Wales day-off today ... but here's what my familiy used to call a "notice-lo-moshyn" to all Lib Dems out there.
Small Tree, Eluned to name but two. You may still be visiting the blog without commenting but this is your big blog weekend. I'm still sticking with my earlier version of events in 'Sprechen Sie Deutsch?' I'm trying but failing to add a link ...
And it now looks as though Mike German is prepared to stand down immediately after the local elections in May next year, which may be enough to appease Mr Black the any-colour-but-black tie wearer.
We all know that I'm not allowed to start a mini-poll but you can comment and let me know what you think.
Should he stay, should he go?
A post Good Morning Wales day-off today ... but here's what my familiy used to call a "notice-lo-moshyn" to all Lib Dems out there.
Small Tree, Eluned to name but two. You may still be visiting the blog without commenting but this is your big blog weekend. I'm still sticking with my earlier version of events in 'Sprechen Sie Deutsch?' I'm trying but failing to add a link ...
And it now looks as though Mike German is prepared to stand down immediately after the local elections in May next year, which may be enough to appease Mr Black the any-colour-but-black tie wearer.
We all know that I'm not allowed to start a mini-poll but you can comment and let me know what you think.
Should he stay, should he go?
I've left but a light carbon footprint on the world today - walking over first thing to the Wales Millennium Centre to chair a WWF Cymru debate on their concept of a One Planet Wales, in other words a Wales that uses no more than its fair share of the world's resources. I got up so early I didn't even boil a kettle, so there.
But proof positive this morning that our one world isn't just wasteful; it's also potty.
The Ministry of Defence has a reward system for companies who work efficiently and sustainably. Government systems like that have a tendency to be ever so slightly unbending. Once they're in place, you stick to them. So they lately awarded a prize for low carbon impact to a company with a contract to make anti-aircraft missiles.
Well done. The world must be a better place for having companies in it that kill people sustainably.
Better go and boil a kettle I think.
When my mother in law, who's 80 next week, was a little girl she'd con her little sister out of orange pop by pouring rather more into her own glass. When little sis complained that she was losing out, big sis would slurp the extra pop, smile and point out that now they had the same. Another slurp. Now little sis had a bit more than big sis. Big sis had been really generous. No problem. It took little sis a few years to work out that particular recallibration in baselines.
Confusion still seems to reign over yesterday's Spending Review. We've spent the morning answering questions from our own newsroom, so let me pass on to you all our efforts to explain it.
In the spirit of yesterday's performance by Alistair Darling I'm going for the wholesale nicking of Brian Taylor's clothes/entire wardrobe. He's come up with a Q+A so I'll nick his Qs and insert our own As where they differ. Where they truly differ, of course, is that arguments over baselines in Scotland are raging between a government of one colour in Edinburgh and an UK government of quite another hue. We're deciphering a Labour-led Welsh government arguing the toss with a Labour UK government. Who needs 'enemies' when you've got friends like these?
Here goes:
Has Wales' budget been cut? No, it's going up, over and above inflation. The row is over the rate of increase.
Is it a tight deal? Yes, the tighest since devolution.
Has the Barnett formula been applied strictly? Yes, to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Is that at good thing? It used to be when Barnett felt generous. The formula's been tightened over the years. Now tends to squeeze, especially in Northern Ireland.
Was the formula fiddled? No.
What's this about the new baseline? The Treasury decided to recalibrate certain existing budgets for England, principally the NHS: essentially, assuming they'd got less this year than the actual out-turn figure.
Why did they do that? Version One, it was a standard statistical exercise. Version Two, it made the percentage increase for health look bigger.
Why does that affect Wales? Barnett. Wales experiences changes consequential upon all comparable English departments, eg health. So this time we've lost out, right from the very first calculation, to the tune of Β£260million+
Is that fair? It's the formula. Live with it - or negotiate everything from scratch, which might not be to our advantage.
What does it do in practice? It explains why the Wales Office say the growth increase over three years is 2.4% (cf Labour Secretary of State Peter Hain today in HofC: "a massive injection - a 2.4% real-term increase per year") while Welsh Assembly Government say it's 1.8% (cf Labour Finance Minister Andrew Davies today in Assembly: " It is important that Assembly Members note that these increases are calculated on an adjusted 2007-08 baseline ... Based on our previously published baseline, the average real terms increase is 1.8% per year". In other words they're using a different starting point.
What else? It explains why Rhodri Morgan says the first year growth is particularly tight - the effect of changing the baseline impacts in the first year.
What happens now? Welsh Assembly Government can complain to the Treasury about the first year deal.
Chances of success with that? 0.0%. In real terms. Andrew Davies says "very robust discussions" with the Treasury are continuing. So maybe that baseline of 0.0% ought to be revisited ...
Thanks Mr T.
And now I return to answering more questions, this time on whether it's true we've been 'robbed' of Β£6.5 million to counter the impacts of foot and mouth on livestock farmers. English farmers get Β£12million. Scottish and Welsh farmers were going to get Β£8m and Β£6.5m ... but now, apparently, they're not.
Guess what?
"The Assembly Government is continuing to pursue this matter vigorously with Ministers both at the Treasury and in DEFRA."
This is what the Press Notice from the Treasury says:
'New spending plans, announced today, will provide for spending by the Welsh Assembly Government to grow by an average annual rate of 2.4 per cent in real terms over the next three years. Spending will be higher than in 2007-08 by Β£0.7billion in 2008-09, Β£1.4 billion in 2009-10 and Β£2.2 billion in 2010 -2011."
That takes us from Β£14 billion to Β£14.7 billion to Β£15.4 billion to Β£16.2 billion by 2010-11.
The Wales Office press release refers to Wales receving Β£15.8 billion (Β£15.74 actually) by 2010-11.
I wish I didn't have to use the term 'baseline' but it doesn't sound to me as though everyone's starting to count the increase from the same baseline. Mind you there might be a perfectly simple explanation for it all. And what's Β£400 million or so between friends?
I do or at least, I did. My degree was in German and I can still just about get by. The Prof didn't like my accent - far too Austrian apparently - but he understood me, I understood him, I did ok.
I don't, however, pretend to understand that other German - Mike. Yesterday he's asked by the lobby whether he intends to stand as group leader or not? At the second or possibly third time of trying, we get somewhere. "I've come to a conclusion in my own mind".
Good. But he wasn't telling us what that was. Bad.
I went for the honest approach. What does 'coming to a conclusion' really mean? I, for one, am lost. Did he mean he'd made up his mind either way? No, not quite. He's "99%" certain he's made up his mind. And the 1%? That's the official size of Lib Dem leader wriggle room I suppose.
Does the group know what your conclusion is? "I think they do" said Mr German. Now given there's only six of them and he counts as one, it can't be that hard to let the other five know can it? But he'll let everyone know at the Lib Dem conference in Aberystwyth next weekend. Nice try Mike but we can't all be there so here's my best guess as to what's going on.
Ready?
Mike German intends to stand and wants to stay on as leader until some time in 2008. At that point Jenny Randerson takes over for the rest of the term. Come 2011 Kirsty Williams will be ready to go for it, her children that much older, the sins of the 'rainbow wrecker' long forgotten. Mick Bates is on side. You've heard of family-friendly hours at the Assembly? Well this seems to be the Lib Dem version of family friendly leadership tallks.
What of Peter Black? As has already picked up, he isn't behaving like a man who's about to back down. Perhaps he can see the danger of having a 'lame-duck' leader, followed by a 'caretaker' leader before the real one who's going to stick around for a few yeras finally takes over. Perhaps he just wants the job and thinks he's the best man for it.
Now all he needs is a nomination.
Where might he get one of those? Step forward Eleanor Burnham. Her hat was in the ring but now it looks as though she'll have to decide between backing Peter Black to put up a fight or fall in line with her four colleagues.
What's a woman to do? Especially one who, as I was told some time ago, has her eye on a job in another House, one that involves ermine and posh titles? What's it to be Eleanor?
Now back to the CSR. Time soon for the to start spinning.
It's double whammy day.
Seatbelts on for the Pre-Budget Report and the Comprehensive Spending Review rolled into one. Today we get to find out how much money the Chancellor expects to have to play with for the next few years, how much of it he's going to hand out and to who. (Yes, I know that should be 'whom' but you don't write words like 'whom' in a blog do you?!)
Why are we having such a big budget day? Hands up those who think it has something to do with the election that never was. Instead it must now count as part of the UK government's fight back, a chance to regain the initiative on taxation and public spending. Already there are hints this morning that inheritance tax will get a mention. But how do you grab the momentum back when - we're told - there's so little to spend?
This will be the tightest settlement since devolution. In 1999 when the Assembly was established the pot held some Β£7 billion. The last settlement was twice that, Β£14 billion. We'll get more still this time - we're talking growth against inflation - but not much more. The kind of 'not much more' that may feel like a squeeze.
Just a few months ago there were Plaid Cymru AMs who thought twice about going into coalition with anyone precisely because they knew this day was coming. Time of plenty over for now; it's time for famine and who wants to be fresh in government for the first time in the party's history when there's no money around?
One or two thought for a while they'd be better placed shouting from the sidelines. They thought the Rainbow Coalition's All Wales Accord would be dashed on days like this. They thought it safer to join the big boys and go into coalition with Labour. But today, I imagine the words 'collective responsiblity' are ringing in Ieuan Wyn Jones' ears. He can hardly slam the UK government for "selling Wales short", can he? Or denounce the deal as "meagre" and "very disappointing" (yes, that's right, I've been trawling through the archives this morning). The SNP have already been at it in Scotland but then Ieuan Wyn Jones and Plaid chose coalition with Labour, so today - if the business of governing is indeed about choosing - let's see how they choose to respond.
How MPs respond? Ah well that's a different story. You never know, Adam Price might even reactivate his blog.
I found a tiny glimmer of hope in the Observer's Book of Money. It's one of those flimsy things you get for free and intend to throw away but given you've carried it all the way from the shop, you keep it by your bed just in case there's anything in it. And guess what? There's a list of the richest names in Britain. Top of the list (average worth, Β£857.9 million) is Michael. He's followed by John and David.
But who's the man who holds the purse strings in Wales? Who doles out the money into Ministers' begging bowls, though only when he's seen a receipt for each penny? Andrew Davies might be pleased to know that 'Andrew' makes it to number 5 (average worth Β£189.4 million).
As I said, a tiny glimmer of hope.
Well at least Mrs Peter Rogers will be happy.
And she won't be alone. You didn't want an election. Only two Tory candidates I spoke to last week wanted an election and even they weren't that convinced. They needed more time. Now they've got it in spades, as well as a leader who's gone from zero to hero in the space of week, if not an hour and eight minutes on a Blackpool stage.
They've also got tax plans - Paul Flynn's acerbic 'taking from billionaires to give to millionaires' - and a strategy, borne out of necessity maybe and not convincing as far as the maths goes but it's more than they had a week ago and you know what they say about necessity. The mother of invention seems to have fended off the mother of all snap elections.
Sensible Lib Dems would have run a mile from a November election. Plaid Cymru will enjoy this scenario far more. Labour, after all, are still the enemy outside Cardiff Bay and Plaid Cymru are good at Schadenfreude.
As for Welsh Labour: if an internal report one week rips your last campaign to shreds, finding basic fault with your strategy, policies, organisation, campaigning and communication capabilities, do you really want to go into battle again the following week? Different game, different campaign, different players certainly but the players I spoke to think Mr Brown has done the right thing.
The question they're now asking is how he got himself into a situation where doing the right thing turned out to be bottling it?
Will he, won't he?
If Gordon Brown will, then the parties are busy this weekend making sure they have candidates lined up.
Lots of interesting tussles. Peter Rogers is still considering standing in Ynys Mon. I hear he feels he owes it to all those who voted for him last time out but Mrs Rogers isn't a big fan of the idea. The man is torn. Another 'will he, won't he' to keep an eye on.
One name confirmed this lunchtime: Plaid Cymru's Penri James will take on Mark Williams and the Lib Dems in Ceredigion. He leads the Plaid group on the council and what's the betting that he'll have been photographed at least a dozen times with Agriculture Minister and local Plaid AM Elin Jones before the weekend's out?
As I drown in guidelines and 'what if' meetings a sane voice reaches me from the big world outside guidelines and 'what if' meetings.
The Richard Evans Show on Radio Wales today invited calls on the hot topic of the day: should Gordon Brown call an election? Do you, the people of Wales, want an election? How many 'crucial 24 hours' can you take in a year?
Two speakers were invited to take part in the debate, one passionately for, one just as passionately against.
How many callers were there?
One.
And he was from Bristol.
Bring it on?
1NA - the National Assembly's postcode.
And what better time to launch our new political programme - CF99 - on S4C?
Tune in tonight at 9.30pm (sub-titles available) to see whether Bethan Rhys Roberts and Vaughan Roderick are brave enough to "do a Cameron" and present the whole programme "from the heart". Autocues and scripts? Sooo last year.
No, all right, that's not the plan but it is worth a watch and the added bonus is that you get to find out what effect a day out shopping with a stylist has had on Vaughan.
We can't wait.
Just faced the long drive down from Blackpool - long enough for the buzzing about an election announcement to get even louder and for next Thursday to turn into 'anytime from Tuesday'.
Long enough to start worrying about how we properly cover the implications of the Comprehensive Spending Review for Wales and the delivery of the One Wales Agreement if there's an election announcement in the air.
Long enough too for Plaid Cymru's Helen Mary Jones to lay into the Tories and their play for Plaid votes over the past few days.
βAs Welsh Conservative leader can Mr Bourne guarantee that Tory candidates will campaign for a βyesβ vote in a referendum on further powers? Can he guarantee that a Conservative government in Westminster would support reform of the Barnett Formula if that is what the independent funding and finance commission advises? And can he assure us that David Cameron, as Prime Minister, would support Welsh Language legislation proposed by the One Wales Government? Unless the Conservatives can meet these requirements then his recent comments are nothing but cheap spin and should be treated as such by the Welsh public.β
Spinning. Buzzing. Let's see what see what 'anytime from Tuesday' brings.
Thursday ... Thursday ... next Thursday? ... This Thursday! ... This Thursday? ... Thursday ... Thursday ... next Thursday ... Thursday
The Good Morning Wales team roll up at the Imperial, the conference hotel at 5am. In the corner a table full of Welsh delegates looking a bit like Vivienne Westwood and her mates. The good news? Most of them are on the programme in a few hours' time. The bad news? They're just getting round to ordering one for the road.
"And the headlines this morning ..."
ΒιΆΉΤΌΕΔ Wales is running the story that the Welsh Assembly Government is expected to announce plans to improve transport links between North and South, including a fast train service.
The phone rings. 'We haven't been talking about 'fast'. It's ... 'fast-er'. Aha.
7.00am and David Cameron arrives as if on a bullet train. GMTV, Sky, Scotland, Today ... 7.55, it must be Wales.
'Anything particularly Welsh you want to ask me about?'
'Yes Mr Cameron, devolution'.
'Ooh great' his eyes say; his mouth talks about 'making devolution work', 'no big changes, let's make devolution work', 'look what people in Wales care about is health, education ...'
Do you expect to see an awful lot about devolving more power to Wales in the Welsh Conservative Manifesto (IF they need one?)
No, neither do I.
"Welsh Conservatives, New Opportunities: Fringe Meeting this way" said the one sign. "Crowd surfers will be ejected from the premises" said the other, somewhat redundantly as it turned out.
They came in dribs and drabs, not best pleased at having to miss the best bits of Shadow Chancellor, George Osborne's speech, in other words the bits they think might give them any chance whatsoever of winning something if Gordon Brown puts us all out of our misery and calls an election.
Nick Bourne eyed the empty seats and did his best. He is, after all, a more influential figure of the right than John Redwood, Norman Tebbit or - er - Samanthan Cameron if this is to be believed. He is a man who is "not afraid to speak his mind" and looks at least ten years younger than his ranking in the photograph the Telegraph subs have dug up.
He had a go at Rhodri Morgan: "Wales is drowning in your clear red water!" He had a go at "this cobbled-together alliance" or the 'One Wales Government' as he's taken to calling it. He even had a go at his own party back then when he wasn't in charge. "In 1999 we were unelectable". I'm told later this wasn't 'just' a dig at Rod Richards but an admission that back then, the Welsh Conservatives had no idea how to campaign, no idea how to put together a decent manifesto. And yes, before you ask, their manifesto is now ready to go - just in case Gordon Brown is too.
But the big attack was on Plaid Cymru.
"I find it extraordinary that Plaid were unwilling to stand up and be counted and take a lead in Government ... In so doing Plaid has given up any right it had to call itself the party of Wales".
I made out a few muttered 'hear hears' from the back.
"They have only one foot under the government table" it said in the script. That, somehow, became "half a foot". He was losing them. Crowd surfing anyone?
But then came the bleeps and the vibrations of the Blackberries. George Osborne had spoken in another part of the Winter Gardens and the mood, suddenly, lifted.
No stamp duty on houses up to Β£250,000. The inheritance tax threshold raised from Β£300,000 to Β£1 million. Alun Cairns smiled broadly as he scrolled through the headline pledges. That must be worth a few votes in the Vale of Glamorgan.
Do they want an election? No. A few who nearly won their seats back in May's Assembly Election are keen to go for it. For them, recognition is all and the wind is in their sails. But they know they're in a minority. "We're tired", "we're not ready on the ground" II'm told over and again. They think Gordon Brown will be exposed as time goes by. They think calling an unnecessary election is a waste of money. They think they'll lose.
Do they think he'll call an election? Cheryl Gillan pauses: "If I were Gordon Brown, I would". Aha. "But we will win of course" she adds, reminding me somehow of a poet who was once asked whether he believed in fairies. "Of course not" he said. "But they do exist".
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I'm Betsan Powys, ΒιΆΉΤΌΕΔ Wales' political editor. I'll be blogging the inside track on .
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