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June 19th 2008

October 2018

He will have a law passed to scrap the 5-year rule on the grounds that it is a matter of National Security that he is PM for longer than Mr Tony Blair.

This would have the additional benefit of preventing either Ming or Dave being given the chance to become the face of Britain.

The date is obviously going to be October 18th (it's my birthday!).

The dog's name MUST be PAXO...with that slightly bored look

I am totally pissed off with so much of the news being guessed at; day in, day out! Why not wait until Mr Brown announces a date for an election, then tell us when it is.

Thank you
Candy

Somewhere in Next Year's recess. When everyone are busy with getting back to work, and no-one expects it. Just to piss them off.

May 2008 next year, economy will have settled down. |MAYBE progress in Iraq or Afghanistan, PERHAPS BOTH.Troops comming home about that time!!

Personally I think he will go to the country later rather than sooner unless the opinion polls, (if they are to be believed that is!), show him leading the other parties by a large majority which will be presumably after some kind of pre election tax consession, (bribe?).

So I'm going for some time in 2009 when he's been PM for a little longer.

The Prime Minister should pick Thursday, 21 June 2009 (Father's Day).
Why - because a) the Tories will still be in flux (probably with yet another Leader; b) Considerable amount of troops will have been returned from Iraq; c) Financial market conditions will be more favourable; d) He will by then have successfully implemented many of his announced initiatives; e) The LibDems will also have a new Leader in situ; f) The weather will be good on 21 June, plus it is the Longest Day. g) The public will be more attuned to him, having I hope forgotten Tony Blair. h) No other MEP etc elections are scheduled then.

Multiply the dates of birth of my three children by the dates of birth of my two grand children.....take away their cumulative ages from the years served by Mrs Thatcher, minus the behaviour of Geoffrey Howe, and add the waist size of John Major - voila - the date will be 10 October, 2007......Regards. Vivi France

The Election should be the 26 Octorber 2007 as Gordon Brown as not got a mandate from the people. If Gordon Brown is for open Government.

18 October 2007:

- still benefiting from Honeymoon / feelgood factor

- Tories in increasing disarray, which David Cameron exacerbates every time he opens his mouth

- the economy is potentially running out of steam, go to the polls now before this starts to noticeably affect people day to day

- never risk a potential winter of discontent, the unions will not toe the line forever

The election should be the 26 October 2007 as Gordon Brown as not got a mandate from the people.

25th October.

Why? Because he will still be riding higher than Cameron and Ming in the opinion polls and because the other parties will still be scambling to select candidates - particularly in Scotland (and Wales).

How about tomorrow...
seeing as nobody voted him in anyway.

Or realistically the day before he really really has to.

Let's say christmas has come early and go for December 20th.

October 25th 2007
Gordon should chose the earliest possible date, but October 18th would seem a trifle hasty!
However, he cannot afford to wait until the economy implodes. He will soon be unable to hide the facts that his reckless nurturing of a consumer credit boom, together with his disastrous government borrowing and "off book" PFI accounting all have to be paid for.
He has kept the chickens flying high for too long and now they must come home to roost

I think Gordon Brown will call an election on 27th March 2008. He won't want to do it before Christmas this year and January, February and early March are generally not good weather-wise, that's why I think it will be on 27th March.

The election will never take place. I know this because without realising it we are taking part in a Philip K Dick story where it's actually the year 3535, but we've been under a collective hallucination whilst in forced Formaldehyde stasis for two centuries. We're about to be woken up to a reality where Gordon Brown, Tony Blair and Margaret Thatcher (who are now immortal beings) have ruled the world as supreme governors since the nuclear holocaust that happened some time in the early 21st century when a US Republican president tried to invade China whilst trying to spread deomocracy to all corners of the earth. We are, and will always be, under their totalitarian rule. But, just in case this isn't true: 6 May 2010.

Christmas Day
- ultimate feel good day
- true test of voter apathy and inertia

Having a change of Prime Minister mid-term may seem a reasonable reason for calling an election, so that people can declare their approval of the new PM, or not. But this is not Gordon Brown's intention.
To call an early election only denies us the chance to assess his tenure. A few weeks in office is no litmus test.
While taking advantage of favourable opinion polls, Brown is manipulating the democratic process to extend his and New Labour's term of office untill 2012.
I therefore feel strongly that he should leave it for at least a couple of years before calling an election.
We need time to assess him and his government, for at the moment he talks up tokenistic differences between his and the previous administration, and it remains to be seen if he really means to forge a different path. What does he take us for?
He talks the talk, but can he dance?

Election dates, so many appropriate events have happened on possible Thursdays, these are just a few:

2007
------
29th November - on this day, Order of Merit bestowed on Florence Nightigale in 1907 - obvious health care connotations

2008
------
14th February - OTD, "The Importance of being Earnest" first performed in 1895, also St Valentines Day

21st March - OTD, plans for NHS announced in 1946 by Bevan

2nd May - OTD, King James Version ("Authorised") Bible published 1611

May 7th 2009.

This would the natural 4 year (approx) date. Snap elections are always a bad thing (think Edward Heath in 1974) as the electorate never thanks the politician for sending to the polls when they don't need to and shouldn't be done unless absolutely necessary. So I think Gordon will do the sensible thing and wait.

6th May 2010, as polling data will be poor for 2008 and 2009 and I don't think he will risk a general election this autumn.

SUNDAY OCTOBER 28

First, I have assumed it is not afainst the law to hold an election on a Sunday... but a weekend vote might increase turnout, which presumably will increase Labour share (which is why we had the "bannana republic" fiasco of postal voting).

Second, he has to go sooner rather than later. Imploding economy. Restless unions. And before we get to see too much of him and HIS spin machine.

He should go for 24 October 2007. The electorate would like to legitimise a new leader if he asks for them to do so as promptly as this.

He is ruthless, and so hostile to the Tories, that he might go for 18 October to prevent them from holding their conference by electoral law. Wiser heads will advise him that that would be obviously unfair and lose him too much goodwill.

He should go for 24 October but he is to some extent timid or a procrastinator, which is why he failed to have a real showdown with Blair. For that reason I expect him to find some strategic reason to miss this opportunity and to go to the polls when an economic downturn is established and more administrative blunders can be blamed on his leadership. Once he misses his chance this October, he is likely to put off the election (like John Major) as long as possible.

A positive reason to delay might reflect his determination to increase his central control of government and to extend the public payroll. In other words he might use the time to lock a larger part of the electorate into dependence on his leadership before he seeks electoral approval. I think this is mistaken because he would have twice as long to pursue this policy if he obtained a first mandate now – and he would achieve more than twice as much in a full parliamentary term than in just the second half of one.

2nd May 2008

The debate on the EU Treaty/Referendum will be out of the way then, which could cost Gordon the Election, if he decides to go to the country in October.

11 June 2009.

Why go in May 2009 when you have to run a European Election the month after anyway?

Euro turn-out would be terrible if a month after the general election, and low turn-out favours Conservatives and UKIP (and probably SNP).

And as parties are incapable of, or uninterested in, of running a Euro-election campaign actually about Europe, why not make it part of the same polling day?

i'm positive it will be 18 october 2007..... the reason.... he will go down in history as holding office for the shortest time....you can't beat that for a legacy

it'll probably be in June 2008, he can't go earlier as he has already annouced a 2p tax cut to come in next April and he'll want people to feel better off before annoucing an election. He does have a mandate as Labour won the last election on his manifesto. The only person who doesn't have a mandate is the MP for Grantham one Quentin Davies who was elected on the Conservative Manifesto and should therefore resign his seat and allow the constituents of Grantham to vote again. I doubt though he'd stand as a Labour party candidate.

Although I totally, thoroughly and wholeheartedly agree with Candy:

" * 5.
* At 11:06 AM on 21 Sep 2007,
* Candy wrote:

I am totally pissed off with so much of the news being guessed at; day in, day out! Why not wait until Mr Brown announces a date for an election, then tell us when it is.

Thank you
Candy"

I'm going to participate in your puerile, futile, and annoying 'game' merely because it'll keep some you guys in a job not worth doing.

First half of May 2009. He needs no General Election to validate the support noted by opinion polls.

The 25th October would be a good choice; with luck a major global financial crisis will not occur until temperatures drop in the US leading to a rise in oil prices towards the end of the year.

It would also echo a previous revolution, this time perhaps in the big tent of a new, British, all inclusive, bring a bottle, politics.

The date falls shortly after the free hustings of the party conference, and allows time to perhaps announce the abolition of tuition fees or some other youth vote winner.

October 18th would be good, earlier if possible before they do more damage.
Can the English elect an English party and send the Scots and Welsh back to where they belong

It's alright for the Leaders to say "bring it on" or "as soon as you like we're ready" it's people like me that take time off work to deliver the leaflets and campaign and many others in the two other parties. the only part of an election I enjoy is results night, at the count and then at the club to strains of "Arthur" the Â鶹ԼÅÄ kicking into gear and making predictions though the exit poll which turn out to be wrong. like 1992 when it they predicted a hung Parliament or a small majority to the Labour party & as history showed the Tories won that election.

Who cares what date the election is, or even whether we have an election. All the parties are virtually identical anyway. None of them have the slightest intention of doing what the electorate wants They are all more concerned with what the EU and the Scottish Mafia want. The only thing they are all bothered about is their wages and obscene expenses.

I'm so fed up with "Tories in disarray" cliche.
i'm not in any sort of disarray;nor are any activists that I know. We're all firmly and happily behind DC and looking forward to the fight.
November 22nd is my guess; if Gordo has the balls to stand up and ask for a democratic mandate.
But then, democracy has never been a word that New Labour value. in fact thier sorry array of jumped-up social workers and primary school assistants aka their MPs probably
can't spell democracy.

01/11/07 because it all adds up to Number 10

May Next year

01/11/07

25th October 2007 he'll want to go while the polls are still in his favour.

Gordon Brown is a very cautious man. In fact, he’s too cautious, and he has a terror of his epitaph being Prime Minister June – October 2007. He’s just put too much of himself into becoming prime minister to jeopardise it. Yes, he may be told that there will never be a better time than now, and that after 2007 the polls will only deteriorate and Cameron will shrug off his critics and improve his appeal to swing voters who really do care about climate change and all that.

But he’s just too scared. He’s like a man carrying an extremely precious and fragile object – one he’s coveted all his life, and for which he has made many personal sacrifices – walking over a very slippery floor in a high wind, absolutely terrified of losing his footing and seeing all he’s worked for go crashing to the ground, breaking into a million pieces, and breaking his heart with it.

So he won’t go this year. In 2008, the political weather will worsen for him, so he won’t go then. So I opt for 2009, even though by then the seas will be choppy. No prime minister will ever want to do a Jim Callaghan again and go to the bitter end of the Parliament, unless he’s sure he’s going to lose anyway (as did John Major).

By 2009, the public will be tired of Gordon, his rictus, out-of-sync smile, his shameless photo-opportunities with people he once demonised (see his 1983 book about Thatcherism – ‘Where There is Greed’ – and then look again at his doorstep photos with the object of his contempt), the pensions grab, interest rates going up, negative equity again, probably more terrorism on British soil, state education still a mess, the health service continuing to burn vast amounts of taxpayers’ money without delivering anything like value for it, ever more encroachments on our civil liberties in the name of security, and rising crime because he and Tony never did get the bit about being tough on the causes of crime (it was just a good soundbite). And probably one more big sleaze scandal.

So he will lose. And he will deserve to lose.

Tough luck, Gordon. You should’ve had more courage in May 1994. Don’t suppose you’ve ever darkened the door of Granita since … The memories must be just too painful. Have a nice political death. We will shed no tears for you, just as we are enjoying forgetting Tony. Having taken our faith and our trust, our children’s years of hope, and so much else from us, you’ve betrayed us one last time. When we get the chance, we will cut off your political head and forget you ever lived.

You asked when he "SHOULD" go to the country - to which the answer is as soon as possible. My guess is that he will call the election for 7th May 2009.

1st may 2008

you read it here first.......

Thursday 08 October 2009

I reckon the general election will be on 8th May 2008 ! As the kitty is a little poor at the moment it's my guess he'll combine the local and general election, funding the campaigning for both together.

The General Election will be on 25th October, 2007.
Brown will use his speech to the Labour Party Conference to announce either a draw down on the amount of British troops in Iraq or a total withdrawal and the date of the General Election.
The news on the troops will give him an electoral boost and the will timing of the election will scupper the Conservative Party Conference.
There is also the fact that the forthcoming waves of strikes will be after the election win for Brown.

He will call an election before the proposed date of the Queens speach and formal opening of Parliment. He has already made a queens speach and set up his goods for display. He must avoid being forced to have a referendum on the EU that will not do his pro-europe standing any good. I think the date of the election will be 1st November, 2007.
The most auspicious date, for good fortune, would be the 8th August, 2008, but that will be the start of the Olypic games in China.

I believe Gordon is a careful person. He has waited 10 years to be Prime Minister. The electorate vote for their MP. The Labour MPs vote for the Labour Leader who automatically becomes the Prime Minister. There is no need for Gordon to call an election before 2010. However wrong we may feel the system is, that is the way it is (a system we Liberal Democrats would change). I therefore believe the local elections scheduled for May 2009 will be delayed by one month and brought into line with the European Election on 11th June 2009 and as Gordon is a Scotsman and wants to save money, and split the Tory vote on Europe with UKIP, he will call the General Election for that date.(11 June 2009)

Terry Scriven Liberal Democrat
Prospective Member of Parliament
New Forest East

He WILL go to the country on Thursday 8th May 2008. I know this because I'm a Time Lord.

The 5th of Never!

Socialism, Communism, Fascism and Islam don't do Elections!

And Gordon and his crew have shown themselves to be a mixture of all four - it's called funnily enough diversity, a contradiction in action!
But what can one expect from hypocrites?

25 October. The PM may call the election during the Labour Party Conference next week, go to the country and still have the planned Queen's Speech on 6 November. Lots of bills went to Royal Assent before the Summer Recess so everything's tidy. If he won the election, he would have a mandate and a fresh start. New Parliament, new Prime Minister. It all dovetails nicely and wrong-foots the opposition.

I wouldnt believe the clown whatever day he announced, Spin to Win. Only %20 of the population voted in the 97 election. How many of them voted for the Bliar, How many big brother believers will vote this time for the brown one. Trouble is he has frightened off a lot of the uk population abroad, same as mad bob in Zimbabwe, The extra nulabour twist is he has filled the country with all sorts of potential Brown nosers, ooo scary and very cynical same as the last gang of brown shirts.

October 18th.

2nd of may. no doubt at all

Announced late 2008 for early 2009.

So that he will have been in almost 2 years + relatively few problems will have occured, given that TB's legacy will still be living on then. Also, the 'Gordon' factor will have rubbed off on the party + people; the initial squabbling will have died down too, giving rise to an uncharacteristic mid-term high: he can't help it being new, can he?

Wasn't it in his Mini-queens speech thing that he wanted elections to be on a weekend?

I assume you have already chosen the date to be polled by most viewers?

The 08 local elections

I think in late 2008 or early 2009. I am an American student who will be studying abroad then and would love to see a UK election.

November 22, 2007

I am going for this as it seems to be far enough after the banking crisis, before the full impacts of the hosung market collapse come to roost; the pound is still high and people are buying all their cheap Christmas presents in NY; but before all the Christmas parties start.

Lets face it things are not going to be so rosey next year when we have the perfect storm - falling house prices etc.

October 20th. Earlest possible date?

October 20th. Earlest possible date?

Sir, It isn't gonna happen. He is too cautious, his whole personna is one of Scottish frugality, prudence amnd all the other terms of a cold, canny Scot. Why should he blow it all, and for what. I am a socialist yet I will not vote for him and there are many more like me. The Thatcher doorstep moment did it for me, a woman he castigated for years so it made him look disengenuous. The public pick up on things like that. Don't think in an election campaign there will not be an embarrassing moment outside a hospital, old people's home, another run on a building society. It would only take a little incident to have the Tory press crawling all over it, so why take the chance? He doesn't need to go for years, only ego would make him go earlier. He doesn't do ego.....look at the way he dresses. Sincerely, Steve

Sir, It isn't gonna happen. He is too cautious, his whole personna is one of Scottish frugality, prudence amnd all the other terms of a cold, canny Scot. Why should he blow it all, and for what. I am a socialist yet I will not vote for him and there are many more like me. The Thatcher doorstep moment did it for me, a woman he castigated for years so it made him look disengenuous. The public pick up on things like that. Don't think in an election campaign there will not be an embarrassing moment outside a hospital, old people's home, another run on a building society. It would only take a little incident to have the Tory press crawling all over it, so why take the chance? He doesn't need to go for years, only ego would make him go earlier. He doesn't do ego.....look at the way he dresses. Sincerely, Steve

You think this stalinist intends to have elections again?

Gordon Brown will call a snap election date some point in early December, when we are all winding up for christmas and probably feeling a little happier that we've still got some money in the bank.
When Mr Cameron is about to take his christmas holiday.
When George Bush anounces his successor for the US election.
When he's had a makeover.
When, he's managed to conquer his Jaw-drop.
Had a Facelift.
When the MPC anounce a drop in the current interest rate.
Take your pick, i am more suspicious of poli(tit)ians than i ever have been.

The most sickening political image for me was Gordon Brown having demonised Baroness Thatcher in the past doorsteps her fawningly into No.10. I hope the Labour Party passes a vote of no confidence in his recent past policies on Banking, Pensions, wages and not least his refusal to have no referendum on a needed new Constitution for Europe.
He is all ethical spin and no real policies for the welfare of the British people at hand.

He won't want to hold an election if the weather is going to be bad as it will deter labour voters. So it has to be soon or late next Spring. The lib-dems are contemplating the end of Ming. Dave's brain is out to lunch as usual. The sooner the better for Gordon, and as he likes doing things differently and is trying not to be the dour Scot, Thursdays are out. As he is a son of the manse, Sundays are definitely out. I say Tuesday October 23rd. He will obviously be re-elected at which point he can stand down to spend more time with his family and appoint Baroness Thatcher as PM! That's why he had her round for a chat recently. I can't wait!!

This is ridiculous. What has GB actually achieved in three months? The last election was only in 2005. Politics is about what you do in office, it isn't and shouldn't be driven by media speculation about an election. If at the end of Labour's third term the people approve of what they have done they vote you in, if not they throw you out. Get on with the job of Government. There's nearly three years in which to make the change GB keeps talking about.

Only an idiot would call an election whilst British troops are still in Iraq and the 'new' EU treaty is being ratified. Issues which are still fertile ground for the Lib Dems and Conservatives respectively.

The next General Election in Britain will be held on Thursday 4th May 2008.

The next General Election in Britain will be held on Thursday 4th May 2008.

I think 21 of october will be the earlest date.

I think 21 of october will be the earlest date.

thurs 29th may 2008

HE WILL FIRST CHECK THE EXTENDED WEATHER FORCASTS. IF PROSPECT OF GOOD WEATHER LATE OCTOBER EARLY NOVEMBER I THINK HE WILL CHANCE HIS LUCK, THE BANK PROBLEMBS MIGHT JUST CHANGE HIS MIND

He'll bottle it and end up hanging on until the very last minute, at which point he will be blown into oblivion where he belongs.

I hope Gordon hangs on as long as possible so we never see him again!!!

Gordon won't last long then will he? Or is that the last bit of democracy we have left? A general election - we only had the farce about two years ago! The only time we get to say anything and you want Gordon Brown to throw it away - just like Jim -(Callaghan to Thatcher - 1978. He sold the gold so I don't trust him nay further than I could throw him. But give the guy a chance - Blair was such a shallow piece of sugar. The labour government was elected and should not throw away the opportunity of some stupid leadership ego-trip. Give peace a chance - don't hand us back to the Tory Destroyers - remember Burma - Satnam - Shella

hello anyone out want an election or am I still in the gulag

Don't go for the autumn. It is too opportunist! Go for 2009.

Might I suggest that everyone stops worrying their little heads over the election date? What a waste of time. Just let Gordon decide - till then let's spend our time usefully debating things we can do something about and which matter. It is truly pointless and infantile to go on and on about possible dates. The next person to add a comment on the subject clearly needs to get a life, along with everybody else who has posted a comment (apart from me).

Last week, it was all about the succession to Mr Campbell. This week it is specuation about a general election date. Can we have more examination the the policies of the parties? Is the Â鶹ԼÅÄ up to that?

Might I suggest that everyone stops worrying their little heads over the election date? What a waste of time. Just let Gordon decide - till then let's spend our time usefully debating things we can do something about and which matter. It is truly pointless and infantile to go on and on about possible dates. The next person to add a comment on the subject clearly needs to get a life, along with everybody else who has posted a comment (apart from me).

Yeah 2009 - thats it far enough away to make them do something for our votes. Give us a break - make some interesting reports about democracy and what it means. Democratic Reform could be the next popular demand. More PR and less boundries.

Think about Burma. Those people could be facing machine guns, or, will the troops fire on their own priests?? Who cares? The Burmese would give their right arms to have someone like Gordon in power!

Gordon's no angel, as I said earlier, not to be trusted with gold, but look at the alternative, Thatchers disilusioned footsoldiers = John Redwood and the like. On just a few marginal votes. Not worth it for anybody. Spend the money on medicines for the poor!

David Cameron - no thanks - upper class, unctious and crass! Who backs him, and what did/does he ever say about Iraq - NOTHING.

Still if thats what eveyone else wants - I could be wrong of course! Just cannot forget James Callaghan in 1978 and THATCHER. Fear eats the soul - Shella

To - Philip 86

I know what you mean but you have to make a fuss in this country, otherwise, we would have a worse dictatorship than they have in Burma!

On this blogsite with its peculiar timeline, (ie when you make a comment and when it appears on the list) you could be referring to anyone! Let everyone have their fair say, which includes you. Satnam - Shella

Any earlier then May 2009 being 4 years could show a lack of confidence in his ability to lead as PM. 5 year maximum terms often result in defeat as with John Major (1997) and James Callaghan (1979). John Major only stayed in by 17 seats in 1992 as the press savaged Neil Kinnock (if that word is allowed?).
Until the electorate including apathy voters have the guts to see if Liberal Democrats can offer a 3rd or even 2nd choice as Labour and Tories continue being more similiar except in flag colour, then we will never know and politicians openly admit that stronger opposition/s provide better government.
I oppose the Lib Dems on 2 issues but a vote for Socialist Labour, Greens, Independents and our Loony Party friends etc, will never get enough votes to govern the country. Until the Lib Dems are tried in Government (different from Councils) we will never know and be no better off.

Here we go again.We told you the war would be a disaster.We told you if you lived on credit, the pay back time would come.This Government has done nothing but devalue this Country since day one.The silent kingdom is not a non political Kingdom.But we did ask the entire Kingdom to answer your question and to comment.This is not one of your ask a thousand random [?] people to answer the question poll.This is the view of The Silent Kingdom.
Q. When should Gordon call an election?
A. It does not matter - He will not win.

Q Who would you vote for in the next election,if you voted?
A Conservatives 26%
Labour 22%
Lib Dem 19%
Ukip 15%
Ind 10%
Not Interested 08%

Interesting to note that Newsnight
came to a similar conclusion last night.Beware the old double spin trick!

The Silent Kingdom

The 12th of Never.

After saying that we don't need a vote on the European constitution, the government will move on to assure us that we don't really need to be able to vote on who's in Parliament.

The argument will be the same: there's no need for a vote because it's not as if anyone's proposing any real substantive change...

June or Sept 2009.
Brits should stop believing the Sun. The Dutch aren't having a referendum on the EU Reform Treaty. When it was a Constitutional Treaty the Dutch chucked it out in a referendum. It is not the same Treaty. Anyway, the UK has opt-outs all over the place. We can't be in the EU and get all the economic benefits and whinge and ruin it all the time. Gordon Brown should stick to his guns and not be forced into a referendum on issues 99% of voters don't understand, it would get a 30% turn-out - max. The whole 'constitutional treaty' thing is actually 'just a tidying up excercise' as Peter Hain said when he was Minister for Europe five years ago.

Dear Newsnight

Years from now.

Gordon Brown has waited years to be Prime Minister, why would he want to do something boring like electioneering when he can be PM instead?

note the right of centre press are trying to encourage him to hold an election saying how well he will do,

the Conservatives can get their vote out on a cold winters day,

whatever the Polls say I think Gordon Brown will have at the back of his mind, events dear boy, how it could go all horribly wrong and he would lose,

he would never get over it

I think he will stay running the country as Prime Minister and hold an election in Summer months a couple of months from now

best wishes
Bob

Obviously the Newsnight team are transfixed with the election issue, but this is a good example of the Westminster village having a different obsession to the average voter, who can stomach the hype not more than once every 4-5 years. Can you put the next speculation last in the programme schedule so I can turn off and get to bed a few minutes earlier please? Martin Tapsell

Obviously the Newsnight team are transfixed with the election issue, but this is a good example of the Westminster village having a different obsession to the average voter, who can stomach the hype not more than once every 4-5 years. Can you put the next speculation last in the programme schedule so I can turn off and get to bed a few minutes earlier please? Martin Tapsell

Gordon Brown needs to go for an election in October or November to keep Labour in power. By Spring, 2008 the momentum will have been lost and the Conservatives will be back ahead with modest leads in the polls.

If Gordon calls an election now what can we expect?

Labour will gain seats like Manchester Withington and Birmingham Yardley from the Lib-Dems and take back seats lost to the Conservatives in 2005. The Conservatives will recover seats lost to the Lib-Dems in 1997 in the South West and recover the south west London suburban seats such as Richmond Park from them.

Labour would have an increased majority. The Conservatives would have about 230 seats and the Lib-Dems about 30.

Or will we wake up on the morning of 12th June, 2009 and hear the news of a Conservative victory and a new Prime Minister, David Cameron?

Only time will tell.

haven't had time to read until today although saw original last Friday. However, go now and latest date for next GE would be 2012 - campaigning prior to Olympics, or after. that's fraught with what ifs' and maybes'. I am inclined to support Mrs Becket, 2009, june ish. I prefer this anyway because there is an element of too soon just now. This criticism that he has 'No Mandate', arose with Mr Osborne, when the Tories were high in the polls. Going later is more Statesman like and has the ingredients of giving Brown longer in the job in case he loses; gives flexibility to following GE timings; allows longer for current financial hiccup to disperse and any following down-turns through their worst, or we will have acclimatised or adjusted to the new.

It's time for Newsnight to start insisting on a dress code for their male political guests [reps for particular parties]: ties for everybody, in order to prevent sartorial nightmares like Derek Draper and that Tory chap. They think they think they know what they are doing; they just insult the rest of us with their knowing image management. I'm a man, so not so expert on women's fashion, if at all on men's, but Thick of It tielessness is beginning to look dumb and worse, manipulative...

I posted somewhere else on Newsnight that Gordon will go in May 2009. Not spent 10 years to take a risk. Polls are very fickle and usually rely on a snapshot in time.
After a week of Tory "Bribes" (they are coming thick and fast) Cameron will have narrowed the gap.
If all they have to offer is to "slag off" Brown as we heard from an earstwhile failed leader on 30th. then it shows how bereft they are of policies.

What the country needs is another good dose of Tory Rule, who will spend its early years blaming the previous Government as they all do.

If some of the Financial commentators are correct we are heading for meltdown so the next Election is one for the Tories to lose and for Labour to clean up its own mess.
Just think about that if you are to put a cross down in November.