Next week's business
Is the grande finale now in sight in the seemingly endless battle over the ? One way or another we'll learn the fate of the much battled-over measure this week - and deciding the issue will dominate the parliamentary week. The bill has to be passed by Wednesday if the promised referendum on changing the voting system is to be held in May. That's because the law requires 10 clear weeks for the various phases of the campaign to take place.
(The minor catch is that Wednesday is the deadline because the Parliamentary half term is looming and the Lords depart that day... it is within the power of the government to keep Parliament going, even at the price of spoiling a few people's plans for an agreeable city break.)
So, assuming the third reading stage of the bill goes through without a hitch on Monday - and amendments can be put in a Lords third reading, unlike the Commons - the next big hurdle is getting both houses to agree the final version of the bill. This is what's known as "Parliamentary ping-pong".
Ping! And the bill flies over the net to the Commons where MPs have to decide whether to accept or reject the various amendments the Lords have made. Pong! They reverse some, accept others, and send the bill back to the Lords.
And if the Lords don't agree, there's another ping, and they send another revised version of the bill back to MPs. And so the process goes till both Houses agree. This can be a fairly dramatic cliffhanging exercise, when there's a deadline, as there is in this case, or right at the end of a parliamentary session. And the Commons will differ with the Lords.
The amendment the Coalition absolutely can't accept is the 40% threshold clause, added to the referendum provisions by their lordships. This would mean a vote to change the electoral system to the Alternative Vote in May would only be automatically valid if 40% of voters took part. The government regards that as a wrecking clause - and there is no way on earth the Liberal Democrats would acquiesce to it remaining, because it would kill the chances of changing to a voting system they find more congenial. Labour also voted against threshold clauses when they were debated in the Commons, so their MPs would have to turn an impressive somersault in order to vote to keep it in.
I gather the Coalition will also seek to overturn the greater leeway over the variation in the size of Commons constituencies, voted through in the Lords. They fear the amendment proposed by the Crossbench legal eagle Lord Pannick will allow endless legal challenges to the boundary redrawing process required to cut the number of MPs.
And they are even inclined to reverse the exemption voted through for the Isle of Wight - which would mean that part of the Isle would not be attached to a mainland constituency. So the question then becomes whether the Lords will dig their heels in. If they do, the bill will ping and pong back between the Houses until someone blinks - with that deadline coming ever closer.
But the Coalition side doubts this will go to the wire. The 40% threshold was only just carried and some of the other government defeats were pretty close run as well - and they calculate that many crossbenchers will balk at defying the will of the Commons again, and some may have slipped off early for their half term. If they're right, the government will have got its way on pretty much everything (bar some provision for public hearings on constituency boundaries) despite all the sound and fury, late nights and interminable speeches. But perhaps they'll be too exhausted to enjoy it.
So what else is going on? On Monday, MPs begin the week with Work and Pensions Questions, then turn their attention to the Budget Responsibility and National Audit Bill - which puts the new government finances watchdog on a legislative footing. Over in the Lords, as mentioned above, peers will be looking at the final day of the Parliamentary Voting Bill at third reading.
Committee-wise, the mmittee will be hearing from ministers Paul Burstow (Health) and Greg Clark (Communities and Local Government) on localism.
On Tuesday, MPs will have before them the Parliamentary Voting Bill. But those who were captivated by the debate on prisoners' voting rights will want to pay attention to Justice Questions first thing on Tuesday. Ken Clarke will be answering MPs' queries, and it's inconceivable that Labour backbenchers won't hesitate to make merry over the difference between his stance (expressed on the Today programme) and the views of Conservative backbenchers, and indeed the prime minister. In the Lords, after questions, peers will be debating the Pensions Bill at second reading - and, no doubt, keeping an eye out for messages about the Parliamentary Voting etc Bill from those oiks in the Commons.
All that activity may distract, unfairly, from Committee Corridor where there are plenty of meaty hearings scheduled. The will be asking some searching questions about the adverse weather conditions this winter. "There'll be standing room only," titters one source. The will be looking once again at litigation and complaints against the NHS, with the Health Service Ombudsman Ann Abraham. will be investigating football governance - with (gasp!) the chance to question a real life footballer, Brede Hangeland. will be discussing the significance of Turkey joining the EU - would Turkish accession mean more access to Britain for people traffickers and organised crime? The witnesses include the Serious and Organised Crime Agency and the Poppy Project which helps women caught up in the sex trade.
Wednesday's PMQs follows questions to the International Development Secretary Andrew Mitchell and then the afternoon will be taken up with an Opposition Day debate; the subject of which is yet to be announced.
In the Lords, peers will first listen to questions. Lord Barnett (he of the famous funding formula) will be asking about the relationship between the Chancellor and the Governor of the Bank of England - a fascinating subject on which the former Treasury minister Lord B has much expertise. Then peers will debate the Postal Services Bill, which allows for the privatisation of the Royal Mail, at second reading.
Again, there's plenty of committee action: the will be looking at funding of the voluntary sector - questioning ministers Nick Hurd and Justine Greening - with the issue of funding cuts vs the Big Society bound to come up. will be looking at the unpromising sounding subject of planning policy on waste water - and the scheme for a storm drain for London passing under the Thames. Also of interest: the looking at the Scotland Bill, the looking at legal aid reforms and the questioning Lord Heseltine on Northern Ireland as an enterprise zone.
Thursday is the final day before half term and MPs will be discussing motions relating to the Social Security Benefits Up-rating Order and draft Guaranteed Minimum Pensions Increase Order 2011. The Lords will not be sitting; and as far as committees go, one is of interest - the looking at the response to the Pakistan floods, with evidence from Medecines Sans Frontieres, Islamic Relief - and International Development Secretary Andrew Mitchell.
I'm Mark D'Arcy and I'll be writing about what goes on in the chambers and committee rooms at Westminster.
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