How Ed's team will set the Commons scene
A lot of people are having fun speculating about who'll be elected to Ed Miliband's Shadow Cabinet - the results will be interesting for what they tell us about the new balance of power in the party, and the policy approach of the self-styled new generation of Labour leadership.
But decisions over who gets what when Mr Miliband allocates the portfolios will also set up the key Commons duels for the next couple of years.
The key question is who will shadow the Chancellor. The fate of the Coalition rests on "the economy, stupid" - and Labour needs someone who can not only master the economics, but also campaign on them in the House and in the country, and sing from the same policy hymn sheet as their leader. The pool of candidates with all those attributes is quite limited - but what should be absolutely clear is that a Shadow Chancellor who is simply chewed up and spat out by George Osborne would go some way to conceding the next election.
Look at the long history of Chancellor Gordon Brown and his many Conservative shadows, most of whom were trampled into the dust. This is a post that cries out for a strong, self-confident and effective parliamentarian - and the choice simply can't be dictated by the concerns about Ed Balls's Brownite past. Whoever is chosen will have to hit the ground running - and reply to the great cuts announcement (the Comprehensive Spending Review) on 20 October. This may be the single most important parliamentary moment of the next five years. To coin a phrase, it will be no time for a novice.
Another key appointment will be a shadow home secretary, capable of exploiting the Coalition's apparent softer line on criminal justice issues. New Labour may be dead (Β© Ed Miliband) but a part of the Blair-era formula that party elders like Jack Straw insist was successful was a hard line on crime.
Tony Blair pioneered it as shadow home secretary under John Smith, proclaiming he was "tough on crime and tough on the causes of crime" (and incidentally, duffing up the-then Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ Secretary Ken Clarke). In government, Jack Straw, David Blunkett and their successors continued the toughness mantra. Now the Coalition is talking about alternatives to prison, cutting back on ASBOs, CCTV and DNA databases and the rest. So some strategists suggest an effective communicator who can empathise with Labour's core vote is needed. The incumbent, Alan Johnson, has been re-applying for his job with a conference speech accusing the Coalition of failing to keep the streets safe. Whether it's him or someone else, expect more of that...
An undertone to this is that some Conservatives believe Theresa May is not the right home secretary. Waiting for my shampoo and set a few weeks back, I was flicking through GQ magazine (not my regular reading) and I happened on an astonishing attack on her by the well-connected Conservative commentator Matthew D'Ancona. A (small L) liberal home secretary could end up watching her backbenchers cheer a rumbustious Labour shadow. Watch out for the device of Tory backbenchers praising the record of Michael ("Prison Works") Howard.
Which brings me to another key post: justice secretary/shadow deputy prime minister. This could be one post, or even two - and at the moment they're combined in the person of Jack Straw, who's standing down from front bench politics.
Leading for the Opposition on Nick Clegg's extensive constitutional agenda could be a full time post in itself, and one that will require a shrewd parliamentary tactician to exploit the Coalition's internal strains over voting reform, constituency re-drawing, Lords reform, party funding reform and all the rest. Harriet Harman showed herself to be effective in targeting Coalition fault-lines during her brief stint as acting leader - and there's a certain logic to having the deputy leader shadowing Nick Clegg. There have been murmurs that she's not a great one for policy detail, but the same critics admit that she has a very sharp eye for the political crux of any issue. At the same time, the justice brief requires someone with legal qualifications - which she has, along with a CV which includes a spell as solicitor general and time on what was then the National Council for Civil Liberties. So this looks like a good fit - and a suitably prominent role for the titular second in command.
And staying with the theme of parliamentary tactics - we now know that the new Opposition chief whip will be Rosie Winterton - Ed Miliband having requested the incumbent, Nick Brown, not to seek re-election. What Labour will need from her, and from whoever shadows Leader of the House Sir George Young are some really clever Commons operators. For most of the last decade, parliamentary manoeuvres have had a pretty minor impact on how the public sees politics. But with the advent of the Coalition, they are now much more important. Labour will need Commons strategists capable of entangling the Lib Dems and Tories in their own divisions. Taken individually, small parliamentary coups may not matter very much, but if the Coalition is plagued constant rebellions, they'll look like a shower - a perception that ate away at John Major's administration and contributed to its ultimate implosion.
Elsewhere, I still expect a lot of new faces in the next shadow Cabinet, simply because the current make-up, appointed in government, doesn't reflect the ideological make-up of the Labour MPs. In opposition, they get to vote on the occupants of their top table, which means that some of the appointed favourites of the Blair/Brown years, who don't command much support from their colleagues, may be heading for the backbenches, or at best, junior posts. Given the scale of the spending cuts about to hit across government, every shadow minister will have plenty to chew on - the test for the Ed Miliband leadership will be to co-ordinate their response, so that collectively they have a coherent strategy.
I'm Mark D'Arcy and I'll be writing about what goes on in the chambers and committee rooms at Westminster.
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