Where's the bill?
Has Nick Clegg run into trouble with his hyper-ambitious constitutional agenda? The strong steer, even a few days ago, was that his bill for a referendum on switching the electoral system to the Alternative Vote (AV) and to cut the number of parliamentary constituencies would have its second reading in the Commons before the summer recess.
But time is running out and the bill has yet to appear. The original timetable was for a second reading before the summer, followed by detailed debate by a committee of the whole House of Commons in September, and then on into the Lords, with a view to getting the Royal Assent early next year. Any slippage puts at risk the prospect of holding the referendum in tandem with the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly, Northern Ireland Assembly and English local elections in May 2011.
So what is going on? One theory is that the part of the bill dealing with reducing the number of MPs by 50 is proving fiendishly complicated. I blogged on the complexities of this a while ago, and the chances are that the normal process of public inquiries would have to be suspended in order to deliver a new set of constituencies in good time for the next election. That, in turn, raises the prospect of legal challenges, judicial reviews and even an appeal to the - which might ultimately derail the whole process anyway. Clearly, under those circumstances, watertight drafting is essential.
And there may be a second problem. The implications of a comprehensive redrawing of boundaries and a reduction in the number of MPs are now sinking in. It is one factor behind the surprisingly low spirits of Conservative backbenchers, some of whom fear their long-coveted seat in the Commons might prove to be a fairly fleeting experience. Bigger constituencies will mean a bigger caseload, with the added complication that the MP may have to work with many more local councils, police forces, and so on, if they stretch across county boundaries, as they well might. Then there's the unstated threat that those who fail to toe the party line might be the ones left standing when the music stops in the game of re-selection musical chairs.
Also failing to appear is the bill to enshrine fixed term parliaments - and require a Commons supermajority of 66% of MPs before Parliament can be dissolved and an election called. The whisper is that there are real problems with this, around the issue of parliamentary privilege. Can this House of Commons bind itself to new rules about dissolution, let alone future Houses? To be sure, MPs could pass a bill, but if 50% plus 1 (but not 66%) of them later wanted to repeal it and then call an election, surely they could do so? So is there any real guarantee beyond the embarrassment of breaking a self-denying ordinance?
Nick Clegg is deputising at PMQs tomorrow, as David Cameron enjoys the hospitality of the White House - and I imagine this subject might come up, not least because the Labour questioning will be led by the shadow justice secretary Jack Straw. And also tomorrow, - constitution nerds should tune in.
I'm Mark D'Arcy and I'll be writing about what goes on in the chambers and committee rooms at Westminster.
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