Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ

There's a huge row coming up the tracks over the centrepiece of the Coalition's political reform agenda - and one at least as likely to derail it as the better known gripes about the proposed referendum on changing the electoral system.

As its rather cumbersome name suggests, the covers holding a referendum on switching to the Alternative Vote system, and redrawing the boundaries of Commons seats, so that there are 50 fewer constituencies, with a much more uniform size.

And because the Coalition wants the new boundaries in place before the next election, that redrawing of the political map has to be rushed through - without the normal consultation procedures. So there it is in the bill, , "a Boundary Commission may not cause a public inquiry to be held for the purposes of a report under this Act". The whole system of public inquiries, which previously allowed the alternatives for changing the layout of parliamentary seats to be weighed in public, is scrapped. Interested (political) parties can send in submissions until they are blue (or red, or orange) in the face - but they will not get to see the thought processes by which a decision is made.

And that matters because the bill also lays out detailed new rules for redrawing the constituency map, which could lead to some dramatic changes in the pattern of constituencies. For example, the four boundary commissions (one each, for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) are instructed to start with the largest constituency in their patch - so does that mean that, in England, they go to the Isle of Wight (with 109,902 registered voters, the largest constituency by a distance) note that it has for more voters than the electoral quota, (around 75,000 at a guestimate) and hive off 30,000 of them to be part of a new constituency straddling the Solent? That won't go down very well on the island...and just watch the ripple effect in constituencies across the south east. That's what the language of the bill seems to imply. And you can expect some similarly exotic results elsewhere.

Except in Scotland, where some specific rules about the maximum size of constituencies will kick in. First of all, the bill specifies that there will be separate constituencies for Orkney and Shetland and Na h-Eileanan an Iar (formerly Western Isles). Then it caps the maximum geographical extent of a constituency at 13,000 square kilometres - about the size of Charles Kennedy's vast domain of Ross, Skye and Lochaber...Labour are already charging that, spookily enough, the interplay of these rules and exemptions make it very difficult to create seats with about 75,000 voters and an area less than 13,000 square kilometres out of any of the surrounding constituencies....like Lib Dem Argyll and Bute and Lib Dem Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey and Lib Dem Caithness and Sutherland. We shall see. It is also possible that redistribution would result in incumbent Lib Dems and incumbent SNP MPs battling it out in a couple of places for seats formed from their former fiefdoms. (There's also some very complicated stuff about Northern Ireland which I have not puzzled out yet.)

But it may never get that far. This is a classic "Lords issue". Peers are sticklers for proper procedure and the Upper House may decide to take on the government over the public inquiries. It they decide to dig in their heels the whole delicately balanced scheme could dissolve into chaos.

Firstly, because a redrawing process which includes inquiries might well not be completed before the next election, which would mean fighting it on the current constituencies. And secondly, because they need to get the bill through fast, if they are going to get the promised referendum next May. The Electoral Commission likes to have a good six months notice of referendums, which implies passing the bill well before Christmas - and since the bill won't even start being debated in the Commons till September, that would require an improbably fast and smooth processing in both Lords and Commons.

If the bill hits real trouble, with Lords and Commons deadlocked over the inquiries, the referendum may have to wait till May 2012 or even later. Nick Clegg would be forced to wait to deliver one of the key prizes he promised his party when he signed up to the Coalition.

And if the referendum is fought out when spending cuts are biting hardest that prize could turn to ashes in his mouth.

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