Βι¶ΉΤΌΕΔ

As the elaborate mating dance to secure a coalition/pact/governing arrangement continues, here is a thought to keep in mind. Don't imagine that the mere act of signing some deal, in blood or just ink, would guarantee the delivery of a majority, or even a reliable block vote short of a majority, which could be topped up by a shifting coalition of minor parties.

I blogged a bit earlier about the need for extreme whipping to keep any minority or pact government going, and my focus was mostly on the complexity of inter-party dealing. But there are serious issues of internal party management too.

Several factors are about to collide:

• Having studiously avoided discussion of the full extent of spending cuts any British government is going to have to make, no party has a real mandate for them. And some would run against the most basic political instincts of particular parties.

• A second election in the next year to 18 months is a distinct possibility - so MPs will be very conscious of the need to keep their constituencies sweet. They can't be seen to support the closure of the local A&E, or the cancellation of some big defence contract vital to local jobs. The small number of MPs selected via a primary process involving ordinary voters may prove particularly sensitive.

• If the Ulster Unionists or Scottish and Welsh Nationalists demand to be insulated from the worst spending cuts, that would play very badly in English seats, who would be asked, in effect, to suffer more, so that they suffered less.

• Some members of the new intake look unwhippable. These so-called "divas" are people with outside achievements, independent judgement and resources, who are unlikely to be cowed by the prospect that they will not be made Parliamentary Private Secretary to the junior minister in charge of public lavatory provision.

• There is, in any case, a lot less patronage at the disposal of the whips. The leadership of the main parties increasingly promote, pamper and fast-track their particular acolytes, leaving less favoured individuals out in the cold.

Pity the party whips who have to sell a package of agonising spending cuts and tax rises in those circumstances.

• Bookmark with:
• |
• |
• |
• |
• - What's this?