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Fevered calculations

Mark D'Arcy | 11:31 UK time, Wednesday, 12 May 2010

Portcullis HouseMuch calculation at Portcullis House. Go from table to table, latte to cappuccino, and you discover MPs working out what the impending new government means for them.

Which shadow ministers will find their portfolio taken by a Lib Dem under the coalition? Which might find themselves replaced by someone from the non-Cameroon right of the Conservative party, in order to placate uneasy backbench traditionalists? My guess is that a lot of middle-ranking shadow ministers are going to be made very unhappy.

Having toiled long and hard in opposition, they will be expected to paste on a fixed grin, as what they will see as their rightful place is assumed by some Lib Dem they've barely heard of. The sight of ministerial cars whisking away Lib Dems after a late night division will, I suspect, become progressively harder for the dispossessed to bear.

Will there be a joint whips office - and who will be in it? With the numbers so tight, an effective co-ordinated whipping operation will be essential. So the question of whether Tory and Lib Dem whips will be able to get on matters, if this government is to make it through its five year term.

On the Labour side, who will run for the leadership, and which candidate should individual MPs back? And would it be better to chair a select committee than to be a shadow junior minister? Who will be up for the potentially gruelling job of opposition chief whip, in an environment where good whipping could seriously frustrate the new government?

And how will the competition for those select committee chairs and for the three deputy speakerships unfold. Complicated and untried electoral systems are involved....and an electorate of very inexperienced MPs.

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