Post-election elections
A while ago, I blogged on the below-the-radar positioning under way, for all manner of political posts, after the election. Select committee chairmanships, big city mayoralties, and all manner of party leaderships could be in play....
But first up will be the speakership - putting one of their number in the Chair is the first order of business for every new House of Commons. Plenty of disgruntled Conservatives are mulling an effort to defenestrate , with the Tory whips office enforcer Simon Burns () tipped as for the Brutus role, a little before the Ides of May. It became a badge of honour for Conservative MPs to be rebuked by Speaker Martin, and the same seems to be happening with his successor.
But because MPs didn't get the chance to vote for a rule change that would have allowed a secret ballot to be held, if a single MP objected to re-electing the Speaker at the start of the next Parliament (and all this assumes Mr Bercow is re-elected as an MP), there would have to be a normal division, with the votes recorded. And new MPs would have to screw their courage to the sticking place (that's enough Shakespearean flourishes - Ed) if they wanted a different Speaker, and risk the displeasure of the Chair, if they failed to oust him.
At least as significant is the developing race for the chairmanship of the Tories' . The '22 is named in honour of the election which followed the famous revolt of Conservative MPs against continuing the wartime coalition led by David Lloyd George. He was a Liberal at the head of a largely Conservative government, and by 1922, his Conservative foot soldiers had had enough of him - so they threw him out, ended the coalition with his small band of supporters, and installed a Conservative administration under Andrew Bonar Law.
And that history could resonate if David Cameron needs some arrangement with another party in order to become prime minister. With a narrow (or non-existent) majority, Mr Cameron would need to work very hard to keep his troops on-side. And the '22 would be one of the main channels through which he would have to work. The current chairman, Michael Spicer, is standing down at the general election - and the two known contenders to replace him are Graham Brady and Richard Ottaway.
The result is hard to predict, not least because we don't even know who'll be voting. That will depend on the outcome of the general election, and on who Mr Cameron wants on his front-bench team. And remember that, almost regardless of who actually wins the next election, there will be a vast number of new MPs - indeed the '22 will almost certainly contain more newcomers than old lags. And one of the first choices they will have to make - with minimal knowledge of the alternative candidates - is who to elect as the '22 chairman and executive.
Soon after, if there's no overall majority, they can expect to hear David Cameron explaining what he plans to do. And the sympathy level of the '22 leadership could make a lot of difference. A restive parliamentary party could make his life very difficult...
I'm Mark D'Arcy and I'll be writing about what goes on in the chambers and committee rooms at Westminster.
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