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Referendum fever

David Cornock | 13:25 UK time, Thursday, 24 February 2011


Seven days to go and the excitement is mounting. Well, perhaps not.

It is possible to drive from one end of Wales to the other, as I have just done, and not see a single poster linked to next Thursday's referendum on the Welsh assembly's powers.

All sides predict a low turnout. Who is to blame? The yes camp have blamed the no camp for failing to register as an official campaign, thereby depriving the people of Wales of broadcasts and publicly-funded literature.

Yes for Wales have also criticised the media for an alleged failure to cover the campaign.
The last Welsh referendum campaign, held in those pre-electoral commission days with very limited public funding, was not that exciting although the issue at stake did engage debate more easily.

Moving from part 3 to part 4 of the Government of Wales Act was always going to be a challenge for those trying to engage audiences, although the winning side will doubtless claim the vote as "historic".

First Minister Carwyn Jones admits that turnout is a concern but points out that the London mayor and assembly were established on a turnout of 34.1 per cent. (turnout in Wales in 1997 was 50.1 per cent)

Despite that difference in turnout it is the mayor of London who features on the cover of this month's magazine. Turn to page 34 and you will find an interview with the Welsh First Minister, judged by the magazine to be "a lucky man".

His choice of guiding motto may be less fortunate. The magazine reports: "His motivation for his style of politics, he says, is the motto of his hometown: "A fo ben, bid bont" (He who would be a leader, let him be a bridge.)

Curiously, the last Welsh leader to use that phrase in the run-up to assembly elections was the Anglesey-born Alun Michael, whose time as the assembly's first leader between 1999 and 2000 was not universally regarded in Welsh Labour circles as a happy one.

The phrase is originally attributed to Bendigeidfran from the Mabinogion, who met something of an unfortunate end.

Total Politics describes a "yes" vote as "all but inevitable", although the word from many politicians is that the result could be closer than opinion polls suggest, even if "yes" supporters are thought more likely to vote on the day.

There is a lot at stake for Carwyn Jones next week - and for the other party leaders in Wales, who all support a "yes" vote. With the political establishment lined up behind Yes for Wales, what could possibly go wrong?

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