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It's been trailed as the largest single public investment Wales has ever seen but will the Defence Training College at St Athan in south Wales ever open its doors?

A question that's asked increasingly often these days - and with good reason.

I've been told by someone who should know that it's unlikely to go ahead on the "gargantuan" scale orginally envisaged.

A senior UK Government source close to the decision-making process said: "The logic for something on that site remains compelling: the model does not."

The model envisages centralising training for the armed forces at St Athan through the private finance initiative or PFI. A private consortium would be given a 30-year contract to run the scheme. Its fate is being decided as part of the UK Government's strategic defence and security review.

"It's not impossible that something will go ahead - but it won't be a gargantuan PFI," said the source.

The final decision is expected to be revealed when the SDSR is published at the end of next month.

Expect frantic lobbying both in Whitehall and on the party conference circuit between now and then. Indeed, the Welsh Liberal Democrats have confirmed that they were entertained by Metrix in Liverpool, and the consortium is expected to sponsor events at both Labour and Conservative conferences too.

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