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Number-crunching MPs

David Cornock | 14:15 UK time, Tuesday, 6 July 2010

We know when the next general election will be - May 7, 2015. What we don't know is how many MPs Welsh voters will send to Westminster.

If you believe Labour and Plaid Cymru, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives are determined to reduce the number of Welsh MPs by a quarter - from 40 to 30.

This would be part of an overall reduction in the number of the UK's MPs from 650 to 600 - a reduction, says Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg, of 7.7 per cent.

So how could this lead to a reduction of 25 per cent in Wales? Welsh constituencies have, on average, fewer voters than those in England. None has Mr Clegg's optimum number of 75,000 voters (give or take 5,000).

Plaid say that if Welsh constituencies are to have the same average number of voters then a cut of 10 is the obvious consequence.

Smallest of the Welsh seats, according to , is Arfon, with 41,198 voters - little more than half the target to be given to the boundary commissions. The geographically vast Dwyfor Meironnydd, another redrawn seat, has just 45,354 electors. Add another 30,000 voters and the local MP will spend more time behind the wheel than Lewis Hamilton.

Former Welsh Secretary Paul Murphy has warned that many seats, such as his own of Torfaen, depend on natural boundaries and slicing valleys would be a challenge for the boundary commission.

The UK Government has yet publicly to confirm or deny any numbers for Wales, although one government backbencher was told by a senior figure that the number of 29 is being considered.

The Wales Office Minister, David Jones, told Mr Murphy during last week's Committee meeting: "It is worrying that a vote in parts of Wales is worth, in some cases, double that of a vote in the south of England. That needs to be addressed. I am sure that the right hon. Gentleman would understand that is wrong in principle that votes should carry different weight.

"It is also a matter of concern that the Welsh vote has not been looked at again at a time when we have the National Assembly and Wales has representation in another legislature. Therefore, while I understand the important points that he made, it is important to review whether the current arrangements are appropriate."

Any reduction in Welsh MPs would need to be accompanied by an amendment to the government of Wales Act to remove the link between Westminster and Assembly constituencies.

Nick Clegg gave no indication of whether further devolution to Wales would influence the cut - the number of Scottish MPs was reduced from 72 to 59 after the Scottish Parliament was established.

The Justice Minister Lord McNally (another Lib Dem) told peers: "There is no specific culling on the basis of Welsh or Scottish devolution."

He put a slightly different spin on things on : "We intend to carry forward the process of devolution so that more responsibility is given to the Parliaments and Assemblies of the nations and regions of this country.

"If you do that, it is absurd to continue with a House of Commons of the same size as when it had the responsibilities that have now been devolved. That is part of the sensible consequences of devolution."

Whatever number the boundary commissioners arrive at, May 7, 2015 could be slightly confusing for voters in Wales as they elect a constituency AM, an MP for a slightly different constituency and AMs from the regional top-up list.

It could be quite an exciting night, if there's anyone left standing from the various campaigns.

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